China

[dean51267]

Although many will at first disagree, economist I read say China is simply going down the same path as Japan went down in the 1980's, with two major differences.
Chins has a massive, uneducated population, that is why wages are cheap there, but also why companies that move to China do not see the massive profits they expect (I have seen this first hand as a controler of a chemical company). This will significantly hamper growth, require massive growth of its cities, and inhibit its growth.
China also has a very poor relationship with the US. The US is THE economic power in the world, without our help sustained growth for ANY country will require significant help from the US. Since China maintains an agressive posture with the US, they will be required to build a significant military, draining resources that will be required to build massive infastructure for the cities that will soon be extremly over populated.
China is a 3 year play at best, right now they are trying to buy US companies, mostly to have profitable assets under their control. But once they get the asset, they will have to put their people in charge, and their people are uneducated, most of their senior managers are first generation, there is not a wealth of wisdom for them to draw from.
Right now, Chinese companies are being proped up by a government that makes interest free loans to any company in China, many, many of these busiensses are failing, and borrowing money to keep going. This allows them to borrow money, pay for non profitable operations, and then borrow more money.
In 2 years China will join the WTO, to do so means they can not offer below market rate loans to companies, and they can not afford to drop from the WTO because they would face trade sanctions.
China's best bet would be to allow US companies to build refernies there, but China will not allow this because they would not control them.
In China, when you consider corruption, and uneducated population, lack of national accounting standards, and other factors, a company needs to make a profit that is 500% higher than in America to justify the risk, the profits in China are not that high.
So China is a giant ship everyone sees and gets scared of, but it is sinking, and the torpedos (WTO) are in the water. China's UNICAL bid will likely fail, but if they can pull it off, the company will die slowly.

[ROZ]

China has nowhere near the corruption as Mexico or African countries.... Refineries in MExico wouldn't be such a bad thing, but better jobs in Mexico, means reduced immigrant migrations to Norh America. That may not be such a good thing..

[Jeanyus]

If you really want to run a countrys economy into the ground. Then you would go with a comunist government. Just ask North Korea or the former USSR.

[HOSS]

All this is great for long term control of "our place" at the top of the WTO. But for the independents as myself its killing us. WalMart and Home Depot will survive but the middle class will be extinct in 3 years. This isn`t speculation,,,just a fact.

[dean51267]

those in the middle class who are labor related workers will continue to suffer, those who learn to think will prosper.
Every day I see over 100 small business owners with but a mear high school education (some with less than that) earning giant incomes, and paying giant wages, as small busienss owners.
The "destruction of the middle class" is that old arguement that rears its head every 15 years or so.
Remember the giant sucking sound Ross Perot spoke of? Our unemployment rate is 5% and the middle class standard of living is increasing rapidly.
Have more faith in America, the story of unfair competion is very, very old. We have beaten it back for 230 years, in fact, we have NEVER not beaten it back...
Have faith things will continue like they always have...

[SummitKarl]

come on the guy that invented the PET ROCK was no genius either but he's living the life now.
their population seems to be buying plenty of cars.
either OIL or Religon in the Middle East, is going to start WWIII, and thats probably not that bad a guess, esp. if China buys Unocal

[SmokinLowriderSS]

You already have World War 3 in the Middle East.
The Terrorists who sould have been stomped out back in the 60's (but were ignored since they were a regional problem and, back then, if they hijacked an airliner, all they wanted was $$$$$, and a free pass to a friendly country) have finally grown (like a cancer) into a full fledged threat to the entire non-muslim world. You either become them or cower to them, or they intend to kill you. We now must KILL THEM, ALL OF THEM, FAMILIES AND ALL, SO THEY CANNOT BREED MORE TERRORISM. (damn, did I say that? :jawdrop: )
More and better jobs in Mexico won't reduce (I'll use the forbidden (in the media) term now) ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION by much. Ya know what the largest source of income to Mexico is??? Money sent back to Mexico by family members working here in the US. THAT is why Vincente (piece of crap) Fox gets pissed when anyone speaks about controlling our southern border, it's his prime cash cow.
Yes, Mexican corruption is very bad, so is that of China, it's just better "disguised" in Red China (as opposed to Democratic China which is Taiwan). I have no guess which one is actually more "expensive".

[SmokinLowriderSS]

Oh, incedentally, World War 3 is over RELIGION, not oil.
We continue to BUY oil from the govts there, not take it as a "spoil of war". The terrorists ( I categorically refuse to use terms like "millitants", "freedom-fighters", "insurgents", etc) want all non-muslims dead because then they will have POWER, Prestige, and, above all, MONEY$$$$$$$$.

[Seadog]

First off, the next major war will probably be caused by the need for water. We do not see it here, because it is available, but most countries are desperate for water.
Second, the problem with China buying up US and Canada outfits is that they are striving to be a world power. As long as they are allowed to use fronts to buy valuable mineral resources, they can eventually control the economy of nations. They may not survive in the long run, but they can take us down first. They have a long history of denying the rules, bending the regulations, or just plain stealing, cheating and lying. We have tried to stop the mass ripoff of intellectual property with no help from them and to no avail. Look at how little regard they have for their people. Thousands of the populace die each year in mining accidents, yet they do not install safety gear and they force the miners to go to an almost certain death. If they refuse, they are killed, imprisoned or tortured. They do not lack for miners as they can always force more people to work there.

[Freak]

Oh, incedentally, World War 3 is over RELIGION, not oil.
We continue to BUY oil from the govts there, not take it as a "spoil of war". The terrorists ( I categorically refuse to use terms like "millitants", "freedom-fighters", "insurgents", etc) want all non-muslims dead because then they will have POWER, Prestige, and, above all, MONEY$$$$$$$$.
I disagree. I think it's over the control of oil and what monies are used to sell it. We buy it from (loosely said) "friendlys". If terrorists had control of it, then it would be a spoil of war because then we would take it.
I do not believe we would be there over religion. They are killing around the world cause they want us out of there. We have no reason to be there except for oil. There is nothing over there except for oil. I don’t think the US really cares about those people. Believe me, if there was not oil they could have the place. We have to keep it in the hands of people that are (loosely said) "on our side".

[canuck1]

[QUOTE=Seadog]
They have a long history of denying the rules, bending the regulations, or just plain stealing, cheating and lying.
The US is a good teacher
J/K :D

[Tom Brown]

I like China because, thanks to them, I can buy a beta VCR for twenty nine dollars and seventeen cents.

[dean51267]

and yet, with all the prior cheating, we are still winning, with all the illegal immigration, we are still winning, every 15 years there is the "America is doomed" story going around, in the 70's it was OPEC, then the Soviets, then Japan, then Mexico, now China, it is just another country five or six rungs down the ladder trying to climb up. To climb up they MUST develope a free market, which leads to massive comingled economies with the US, meaning we have an ally.
Look at Japan, when they started cooperating with the US, they started winning, and so did we. Japanise cars did not destroy America, they may have reigned in US cars, but Microsoft emerged, Exon, GE, J&J grew, all the companies in hte US started shipping stuff over there, they wanted a US lifestyle, and to get it they adopted a US like economy.
We NEED China to become a economic powerhouse, because to do will REQUIRE they adopt a free market economy, thus opening the worlds largest group of consumers who are starving for a US way of life.
Yes, China MAY become an enemy, but they CAN NOT become an enemy and a economic success, the two are exact opposites.

[tbanzer]

If anyone does not see China as a threat Just wait untill they start dumping similiar vehicles on us at a 40% savings over what is produced by the current auto makers. I will be surprised if GM is still in business in ten years with ford and chrysler not far behind them. China is at the beginning of such an economic boom that they are gobbling up all the natural resourses they can get their hands on, and price is no object.

[sorry dog]

China is a 3 year play at best, right now they are trying to buy US companies, mostly to have profitable assets under their control. But once they get the asset, they will have to put their people in charge, and their people are uneducated, most of their senior managers are first generation, there is not a wealth of wisdom for them to draw from.
China's best bet would be to allow US companies to build refernies there, but China will not allow this because they would not control them.
Actually, this is not quite right. They are interested in US companies because they have lots of dollars (or assets like gov't bonds in dollars). They have lots of dollars because they have to buy lots of dollars to keep the Yuan at 8.26 to a dollar. If they choose to invest in another country, they must buy in that currency and trade yuans for that which puts pressure on the yuan to decline, so... assets donominated in dollars are their best deal.
...and yes the majority of their population is poorly educated, however don't think for a second they don't have some extremely intelligent and highly motivated entreprenurial managers over there. In fact, we are educating quite a few of them in our graduate schools. For some reason after educating them (often at public universities) we tell them that they must go back home. :confused:
I think it's rather arrogant to say that we have a lock on the world's most talented business men.
...and ExxonMobil is currently constructing a 3.5 billion $$ joint venture in south China. I've also heard of other Chinese cities that are in talks with potential US partners.
...and like Tom I don't think it's all bad. The way Merc parts prices are going we'll have to start sourcing 260 pistons from there if fuel is still affordable...and I happen to know of a place or two over there where even Tom could get a piece...and shit.