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al cole'holic
10-27-2005, 08:44 AM
...RTJ, that is the stupidest thing I have seen posted here in a long time :hammer2:

RiverToysJas
10-27-2005, 08:45 AM
...RTJ, that is the stupidest thing I have seen posted here in a long time :hammer2:
I tried to PM you yesterday, but your PMs are full. ;)
RTJas :D

OGShocker
10-27-2005, 08:48 AM
...RTJ, that is the stupidest thing I have seen posted here in a long time :hammer2:
So, I guess you missed the post about the guy here who waxed his nutsack. :supp:

al cole'holic
10-27-2005, 08:50 AM
..you may want to put up about 126 more sticky's relating to travertine, dodge trucks, chevy tahoe's, jews, cops, gang bangers, um football, politics, A/C guys, just to name a few...I would rather look at a house for sale on this forum then listen to a cop agrue about a jew, a black, and a priest walking into a bar... ;)

76ANTHONY
10-27-2005, 08:54 AM
LOL! No problem. I tried to PM you yesterday, but your PMs are full. ;)
RTJas :D
you guys dont get paid????? :D

RiverToysJas
10-27-2005, 08:58 AM
..you may want to put up about 126 more sticky's relating to travertine, dodge trucks, chevy tahoe's, jews, cops, gang bangers, um football, politics, A/C guys, just to name a few...I would rather look at a house for sale on this forum then listen to a cop agrue about a jew, a black, and a priest walking into a bar... ;)
It's Real Estate in particular that is the problem. Once someone starts selling their house here, every realtor on the board wants to SPAM what they have. It's been a problem in the past, and the owners of the board do not want it here. Sorry, but they pay the bills here, and they are allowed to pick and chose what gets posted and what does not.
They have decided to allow SPAM related to boating, the river, and toys in general.
RTJas :D

RiverToysJas
10-27-2005, 09:00 AM
you guys dont get paid????? :D
Your love and support is payment enough for us!!! :redface:
RTJas :D

76ANTHONY
10-27-2005, 09:03 AM
Your love and support is payment enough for us!!! :redface:
RTJas :D
:D :D :D :D

Ivan Dan
10-27-2005, 09:30 AM
..you may want to put up about 126 more sticky's relating to travertine, dodge trucks, chevy tahoe's, jews, cops, gang bangers, um football, politics, A/C guys, just to name a few...I would rather look at a house for sale on this forum then listen to a cop agrue about a jew, a black, and a priest walking into a bar... ;)
This was EXACTLY my point when they removed my thread last night. However, they can do whatever they want since they own the boards. Personally I think its BS but thats just my opinion.
The way I see it is this...without these homes probably 90% of the people around here would not be able to own a boat at all. So essentially promoting the sale of a home is helping a ***boater afford the boat they have or upgrade to a better one or whatever.

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 09:50 AM
The way I see it is this...without these homes probably 90% of the people around here would not be able to own a boat at all. So essentially promoting the sale of a home is helping a ***boater afford the boat they have or upgrade to a better one or whatever.
Exactly we should all continue to think of our homes as ATM machines or money trees that does not need to be paid back. We all know house prices never go down!

Kachina26
10-27-2005, 09:53 AM
Perhaps if you mentioned that there is room to park a boat out front, it would meet the boating related spam issue:D :cool:

Ivan Dan
10-27-2005, 10:08 AM
Exactly we should all continue to think of our homes as ATM machines or money trees that does not need to be paid back. We all know house prices never go down!
You have an excellent attitude and must be a joy to be around.

al cole'holic
10-27-2005, 10:15 AM
Exactly we should all continue to think of our homes as ATM machines or money trees that does not need to be paid back. We all know house prices never go down!
...I think somewhere in between the $320k I paid (2000) and the $15k my grandparents paid (1965) for the exact same house the price may have gone down a hair :rolleyes:

al cole'holic
10-27-2005, 10:23 AM
...oh yea, and based on price per sq' of neighborhood sales my home and lot are somewhere around the $1.1-$1.2 area....if my home value drops below $300k I'd be upset, but you could be right there toten to pick it up off the forclosure desk!! :D

cdog
10-27-2005, 10:25 AM
You have an excellent attitude and must be a joy to be around.
My thoughts exactly. Keep up the good work Dan. I'd bet mabey 10% of the people here can honestly say that they have helped someone better their life.

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 10:30 AM
You have an excellent attitude and must be a joy to be around.
Just keep up with the puffery it suits your ego well. Sorry that I'm a realist and have things to back up my arguements.
If your place that you are selling is as you say a "GREAT BUY" I figure you could buy it yourself or get a partner or two together (I'm positive you have the means) and flip it within a year. You or another poster felt that R/E prices are going to keep going up at 15% a year. So I figure that you buy the property at $875k less $24k in commissions (you and I know it is more than that.) Closing costs $15k and you are into the property for $866k. Get a $700k i/o loan at 5%= $2916 per month + taxes $911 per month totaling $3,827 per month. You can rent it for $3,200 for one year. But since it was a "Great BUY" the property at the end of the one year including 15% appreciation is now worth $1,035,000. So after carrying costs, capital gains, selling/closing costs you should be able to make $100k+. That is if you believe that it is a "GREAT BUY" and you have faith in aprpeciation increasing 15%.
So why aren't you buying this property yourself? (Let alone I bet you aren't buying any investment proeprties in So-Cal.)
Whats that ringing I hear??? Oh, it's the school bell!

BarryMac
10-27-2005, 10:32 AM
Your love is payment enough for us!!! :redface:
RTJas :D
RTJas turned this thread Gay already... :D

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 10:32 AM
...I think somewhere in between the $320k I paid (2000) and the $15k my grandparents paid (1965) for the exact same house the price may have gone down a hair :rolleyes:
Throw in the inflation figure in your calculation as well! Hey, I'm not saying R/E isn't a good long term prospect (God knows I've made good money buying and selling in the last few years.) but to buy a place now banking on appreciation is suicide.

CornWater
10-27-2005, 10:32 AM
My thoughts exactly. Keep up the good work Dan. I'd bet mabey 10% of the people here can honestly say that they have helped someone better their life.
That is a really intelligent comment... :confused:

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 10:35 AM
You make money in R/E when you buy not when you sell. When the market goes down I will be picking up foreclosures (got the cash ready) and properties will actually provide a postive cash flow a decent cap rate.

Ivan Dan
10-27-2005, 10:59 AM
Just keep up with the puffery it suits your ego well. Sorry that I'm a realist and have things to back up my arguements.
If your place that you are selling is as you say a "GREAT BUY" I figure you could buy it yourself or get a partner or two together (I'm positive you have the means) and flip it within a year. You or another poster felt that R/E prices are going to keep going up at 15% a year. So I figure that you buy the property at $875k less $24k in commissions (you and I know it is more than that.) Closing costs $15k and you are into the property for $866k. Get a $700k i/o loan at 5%= $2916 per month + taxes $911 per month totaling $3,827 per month. You can rent it for $3,200 for one year. But since it was a "Great BUY" the property at the end of the one year including 15% appreciation is now worth $1,035,000. So after carrying costs, capital gains, selling/closing costs you should be able to make $100k+. That is if you believe that it is a "GREAT BUY" and you have faith in aprpeciation increasing 15%.
So why aren't you buying this property yourself? (Let alone I bet you aren't buying any investment proeprties in So-Cal.)
Whats that ringing I hear??? Oh, it's the school bell!
There you go again....spouting crap out of your mouth that you have NO idea about. This house just appraised for $925,000.....still want to say its not a great buy at $899k?? OH YA I forgot you are Mr. Negativity and the market is gonna "tank" as you say.
Its really none of your damn business what I buy with my money. But for the record I currently own 3 properties (which ALL of them have appreciated tremendously) and I just bought a 3 unit building in Apple Valley about 4 months ago. That property has appreciated almost 24% already. WOW that is really "tanking" as you say. DAMN I better hurry up and sell it before the market "tanks".
So I have to ask you.....have you "liquidated" all of your real estate holdings in So Cal? I would be willing to bet you have not and don't intend to anytime soon either.
You are the guy that is sitting in his nuclear bomb shelter waiting for the nukes to hit or the 9.0 earthquake to hit and Cali be leveled or break off into the ocean so you can take advantage of the market and buy ocean front property in AZ. GREAT way to live life their pal. Have another beer!

Ivan Dan
10-27-2005, 11:03 AM
...oh yea, and based on price per sq' of neighborhood sales my home and lot are somewhere around the $1.1-$1.2 area....if my home value drops below $300k I'd be upset, but you could be right there toten to pick it up off the forclosure desk!! :D
He has a crystal ball and can see the future. He is the ONLY person on the planet that knows the real estate market is gonna "tank". I wish he would share it with the rest of us here because I would really like to see what the Super Loto winning #'s are for tonight. Anyone want to split it with me? :D

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 11:43 AM
He has a crystal ball and can see the future. He is the ONLY person on the planet that knows the real estate market is gonna "tank". I wish he would share it with the rest of us here because I would really like to see what the Super Loto winning #'s are for tonight. Anyone want to split it with me? :D
I'll split it w/ya. This guy has gotta be weathly beyond our wildest dreams. His obviously estute (or not) understanding of the current economy, and the future is mind-blowing. Sounds more like someone who has picked up one of those "get rich w/no money down" infomercial programs, and is working it in with his long distance phone company/vitamin/tupperware game.
Most investors that I think have any credence are those that look at long term. Sure flipping and spec makes money in some cases, but to say that RE isn't and hasn't been one of the best investments, is laughable. I don't know many RE investors (I should say savvy) that are "liquidating their holdings". That's just silly.
This sounds more like another guy trying to keep up with the Joneses, and hates RE agents because he's jealous that some of them make so much money. Damn, free enterprise, capitalist society we have. Whatever.
Now, before he jumps my shiat, let me say, the guy isn't all bad, though. He likes the Lakers. And, there is some truth to what he's saying. Just he's kinda Chicken-littling it a bit. My .02.

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 11:44 AM
There you go again....spouting crap out of your mouth that you have NO idea about. This house just appraised for $925,000.....still want to say its not a great buy at $899k?? OH YA I forgot you are Mr. Negativity and the market is gonna "tank" as you say.
No it's not a great deal otherwise you wouldn't have to reduce the price. :hammerhea You know as well as anyone else that appraisal means crap. The market will determine the true price of the property. Apparently you and the seller feel teh same way otherwise you wouldn't have had to drop the price.
Its really none of your damn business what I buy with my money. But for the record I currently own 3 properties (which ALL of them have appreciated tremendously) and I just bought a 3 unit building in Apple Valley about 4 months ago. That property has appreciated almost 24% already. WOW that is really "tanking" as you say. DAMN I better hurry up and sell it before the market "tanks".
Yeah and I made 60%+ in my AZ properties.
So I have to ask you.....have you "liquidated" all of your real estate holdings in So Cal? I would be willing to bet you have not and don't intend to anytime soon either.
Yes I have besides my primary residence. I also am in the process of selling one of three properties in AZ. The others are at a 8-9% cap.
I'll be buying properties based on cap rates and not assumed/projected appreciation.
Since you are such an expert why do you think that the R/E market will continue as it is despite the following:
Banks tightening lending standards (reducing ARMS, I/O loans, no loan exceptions)
Home builder stocks tanking and directors/officers selling off large portions of their stock?
Home builders offering incentives?
Change in the pyschology of the general public.
What happens when those ARMS and I/O loan adjust?
Inventory, DOM market and price reductions happening?
NAR figures for the west region already showing declines in YOY pricing.
Affordability at record low numbers.
Give me your answer with your big 6 years of experience.

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 11:57 AM
I'll split it w/ya. This guy has gotta be weathly beyond our wildest dreams. His obviously estute (or not) understanding of the current economy, and the future is mind-blowing. Sounds more like someone who has picked up one of those "get rich w/no money down" infomercial programs, and is working it in with his long distance phone company/vitamin/tupperware game.
Try astute (just messing with you.)
Here is where you guys got my wrong. I am all about long term investing using basic R/E investing fundamentals. But for the life of me why would you buy a property with cap rates of 2-3%? The opportunity cost of me putting my cash in different investment vehicles is far better than having it in an illquid asset such as a home right now. Again it is my opinion that the housing market will decrease and rents and carrying costs of a home are going to come more in line together. I gave my reasons why I think this. So what is yours for believing that the market will continue the way it is?
Most investors that I think have any credence are those that look at long term. Sure flipping and spec makes money in some cases, but to say that RE isn't and hasn't been one of the best investments, is laughable. I don't know many RE investors (I should say savvy) that are "liquidating their holdings".
here is a little article for you from one of the largest R/E investors in the US. I guess he isn't savvy. :wink: http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm
This sounds more like another guy trying to keep up with the Joneses, and hates RE agents because he's jealous that some of them make so much money. Damn, free enterprise, capitalist society we have. Whatever.
Actually I am an agent and about to get my brokers license. But I don't need to peddle my product here to make a living. What you peddle on MLS and to clients is one thing but to post it here as a bargain is another.
Now, before he jumps my shiat, let me say, the guy isn't all bad, though. He likes the Lakers. And, there is some truth to what he's saying. Just he's kinda Chicken-littling it a bit. My .02.
Damn straight! Seriously all I want to know is why you guys are so bullish on the market. Like I mentioned yesterday I meet with one of the CEOs of one of the nations largest mortgage companies and not even he is bullish on the market. Growth will coming from buying other companies and vertical intergration and not originations.

CA Stu
10-27-2005, 12:24 PM
Kittens are cute!
Cheers
CA Stu

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 12:25 PM
Try astute (just messing with you.)
Here is where you guys got my wrong. I am all about long term investing using basic R/E investing fundamentals. But for the life of me why would you buy a property with cap rates of 2-3%? The opportunity cost of me putting my cash in different investment vehicles is far better than having it in an illquid asset such as a home right now. Again it is my opinion that the housing market will decrease and rents and carrying costs of a home are going to come more in line together. I gave my reasons why I think this. So what is yours for believing that the market will continue the way it is?
here is a little article for you from one of the largest R/E investors in the US. I guess he isn't savvy. :wink: http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm
Actually I am an agent and about to get my brokers license. But I don't need to peddle my product here to make a living. What you peddle on MLS and to clients is one thing but to post it here as a bargain is another.
Damn straight! Seriously all I want to know is why you guys are so bullish on the market. Like I mentioned yesterday I meet with one of the CEOs of one of the nations largest mortgage companies and not even he is bullish on the market. Growth will coming from buying other companies and vertical intergration and not originations.
Damn, forgot the spell check, again. Thanks.
Good points. Interesting article. I apologize for the implication that you were not astute in your comments. Clearly, you are.
I think that this thread was not positioned as a strong investment opportunity, but rather a good opportunity in the current environment to purchase close to the beach. Your analysis from a short-term investors standpoint is sound. Is it right? Who knows. We've been hearing this for well over the last 12 months. Look what was missed. But you're right in that a smart investor does not ignore the signals. Not sure where else you're gonna look (investment/short-term wise) right now, however.
I guess you have to look at what the motivation for the buy would be. Since, the motivation may be strictly emotional, which I would venture to say is probably the majority of the buyers out there, then I don't find anything wrong with Dan presenting this as he did, for his client. Should he come on and say "this deal blows, but check out?". It's emotion that has driven this market, anyway. I work in sales, and maybe soon in real estate, and I value integrity. I don't think there was a lack of it, here.
I just think your attack was unwarranted, although I value the opinion and opportunity to learn. :cool:

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 12:35 PM
I guess you have to look at what the motivation for the buy would be. Since, the motivation may be strictly emotional, which I would venture to say is probably the majority of the buyers out there, then I don't find anything wrong with Dan presenting this as he did, for his client. Should he come on and say "this deal blows, but check out?". It's emotion that has driven this market, anyway. I work in sales, and maybe soon in real estate, and I value integrity. I don't think there was a lack of it, here.
I just think your attack was unwarranted, although I value the opinion and opportunity to learn. :cool:
But neither do used car salemen. I understand that he has a job to do and makes his living this way. But when you post on a public message board you open yourself up to that kind of scrutiny. Would I do the same thing if he were pitching it at a R/E caravan or in front of clients of other agents at an open house. No I wouldn't.
Perhaps you are right and for that I apologize. But at the same time I don't think I ahve gotten a straight anser from any of the so-called R/E experts as to why they are still bullish on the R/E market beyond propaganda.

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 12:49 PM
But neither do used car salemen. I understand that he has a job to do and makes his living this way. But when you post on a public message board you open yourself up to that kind of scrutiny. Would I do the same thing if he were pitching it at a R/E caravan or in front of clients of other agents at an open house. No I wouldn't.
Perhaps you are right and for that I apologize. But at the same time I don't think I ahve gotten a straight anser from any of the so-called R/E experts as to why they are still bullish on the R/E market beyond propaganda.
I think it's hard not to be bullish until it actually happens (and there's some indication as you mentioned). It's all timing, and that's the golden apple. I have a buddy who sold over 2 years ago, thinking he sold at the top, and he is still renting, waiting for the "bubble" to break to come back in. He only lost out on a couple of hundred of thousands (his house was in Newport Beach). It's a guessing game, no matter who writes the article.
I'm more with your approach, however, as I hate losing money, and you can never have too much information. So, what's after real estate for the next few years? Someone was telling about bridges for sale somewhere.... near the Nautical. :notam: :cool:

Totally IncapASSitated
10-27-2005, 12:51 PM
Because they are all leveraged to the moon and need to keep those commissions coming to cover the debt service, ya silly! :messedup:
Cheers
CA Stu
Wow...still ranting and raving over this topic!!! And I see I almost missed another enlightening Socrates-like comment by good ol' CA Stu.
Thankfully I checked in here before going out on the lake and spending more $$$ that I apparently don't really have ;)

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 12:53 PM
YADA, YADA, YADA.....F THE LAKERS :) :D
:lightsabe: LOL....you obviously didn't watch the game last night. I know it's just preseason, but I'm feeling better everyday! It's gonna be fun to watch the Lakers again. Playoffs. Gonna happen. :D
Too bad about that kid on The Clippers. They're gonna miss him. :sleeping:

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 12:56 PM
:lightsabe: LOL....you obviously didn't watch the game last night. I know it's just preseason, but I'm feeling better everyday! It's gonna be fun to watch the Lakers again. Playoffs. Gonna happen. :D
Too bad about that kid on The Clippers. They're gonna miss him. :sleeping:
Yup, they gave Utah a whoopin'. But damn Bynum looks weak.

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 01:01 PM
Yup, they gave Utah a whoopin'. But damn Bynum looks weak.
He's just scared, as I would be, 17 y.o. in the NBA. He'll settle down and w/Karem coaching him, he'll be a playa. They got some D going, finally. It's a work in progress.

AirtimeLavey
10-27-2005, 01:05 PM
Make no doubt the Clips need Livingston but are in pretty good shape even without him. He will be out about 4 weeks I guess.
I did watch some of the Lakers game late last night. I guess it was a replay...anyhow I ended up falling :sleeping:
4 weeks isn't bad, esp. this time of year.
Hard to believe you feel asleep in a Lakers game....I mean aren't you a Clipper's fan? You're used to mind-numbing b-ball, aren't you? :D

totenhosen
10-27-2005, 01:23 PM
DILLIGAF, your avatar reminds me of what the Lakers do to the Clips year in and year out.

CA Stu
10-27-2005, 02:27 PM
Wow...still ranting and raving over this topic!!! And I see I almost missed another enlightening Socrates-like comment by good ol' CA Stu.
Thankfully I checked in here before going out on the lake and spending more $$$ that I apparently don't really have ;)
If it was Socratic, wouldn't it be in the form of a question?
I, too , am glad you checked in and gave us your Croesus-like perspective.
Thanks!
CA Stu
PS I agree with TH, in a different forum the house for sale is appropriate. Also, I didn't mean to imply that all "Real Estate Agents" are inexperienced, juvenile, money grubbing bastards. I know some are hard working professionals, and enlightened individuals.
I hereby apologize to both of them.

cdog
10-27-2005, 02:35 PM
That is a really intelligent comment... :confused:
You're a dip! It's obviously beyond you're comprehension. Have you ever helped someone buy a home?

CornWater
10-27-2005, 02:44 PM
You're a dip! It's obviously beyond you're comprehension. Have you ever helped someone buy a home?
Your a jackass.. perhaps you should think before you open your mouth. What the hell does helping someone buy a home have to do with you saying 90% of the people here are essentialy a selfish bunch who have never helped anyone better their life. If you are speaking solely in terms of real estate, STATE that, otherwise go F with somebody else, you are the one looking like a DIP here. :devil:

cdog
10-27-2005, 02:50 PM
Your a jackass.. perhaps you should think before you open your mouth. What the hell does helping someone buy a home have to do with you saying 90% of the people here are essentialy a selfish bunch who have never helped anyone better their life. If you are speaking solely in terms of real estate, STATE that, otherwise go F with somebody else, you are the one looking like a DIP here. :devil:
Screw you corn hole! Yes 90% of the people here a jack hole's trying to show off. Which lead's me to believe they are selfish assholes. If you don't take offense to that, then I can assume you're not one of them. But I guess you all ready proved my point. Take a walk in someone else's shoes. It's amazing how differant the world looks.

CornWater
10-27-2005, 02:55 PM
Screw you corn hole! Yes 90% of the people here a jack hole's trying to show off. Which lead's me to believe they are selfish assholes. If you don't take offense to that, then I can assume you're not one of them. But I guess you all ready proved my point. Take a walk in someone else's shoes. It's amazing how differant the world looks.
Are you on crack? Your gift of language is astounding. If you hate 90% of the people on here, why the F do you stay. You don't know me, don't know shit about me. I'm quite sure there are alot better people on here than you know, I can speak of that personally.

cdog
10-27-2005, 03:04 PM
Are you on crack? Your gift of language is astounding. If you hate 90% of the people on here, why the F do you stay. You don't know me, don't know shit about me. I'm quite sure there are alot better people on here than you know, I can speak of that personally.
I've worked for free to do the right thing for people. Dan's more or less getting attacked for his post. I know him and he's a nice guy who's just doin his job. I've sold homes to people who were looking to get rich off of it and to people who were just looking to have a roof over thier head and live in it. Who are you to assume anyone's attentions? Further more you are very immature and need to grow up. You took offence to something that had no direct intent to anyone other than selfish asshole's. There is nothing more to say, other than good luck to you.

CornWater
10-27-2005, 03:13 PM
I've worked for free to do the right thing for people. Dan's more or less getting attacked for his post. I know him and he's a nice guy who's just doin his job. I've sold homes to people who were looking to get rich off of it and to people who were just looking to have a roof over thier head and live in it. Who are you to assume anyone attentions? Further more you are very immature and need to grow up. You took offence to something that had no direct intent to anyone other than selfish asshole's. There is nothing more to say, other than good luck to you.
Wow, I tend to believe whining, name calling, negativity, etc... are all signs of immaturity. Dont assume you are entitled to some moral high ground because you sold a house to someone who needed a roof over their head. I have nothing negative to say about Dan, I don't know him, but harbor no ill will to him. I don't despise anybody that is successful and works hard, in fact I applaud it, and Dan impresses me as that kind of person.
I only took offense to you essentialy calling the majority of the board members "selfish assholes". Telling me to grow up is a concise example to your haughty behavior in this thread and on the board. Have a nice day.

CA Stu
10-27-2005, 04:12 PM
I've worked for free to do the right thing for people.
Get off the cross, man, we need it for firewood.
Sheesh
CA Stu

callbob4homes
10-27-2005, 05:08 PM
Hey Stu, I never got an answer from you on the other deleted thread. Do you use a real estate agent when you buy a home or just drive around looking for a fsbo? Just curious as to the worth of the "turd burglers" when the money comes out of someone elses pocket. Also, what do you do for a living and are you overpaid? (no, I mean in the real world )

CA Stu
10-27-2005, 06:42 PM
I like puppies.
Thanks
CA Stu

callbob4homes
10-27-2005, 06:44 PM
c'mon, it shouldn't take a razor sharp wit like yourself there scooter, to come up with those simple answers. :rolleyes:

CA Stu
10-27-2005, 06:47 PM
c'mon, it shouldn't take a razor sharp with like yourself there scooter, to come up with those simple answers. :rolleyes:
Is this French? No habla, Roberto.
Sorry I didn't respond last night, I leave work about now and by the time I logged on again this morning, the thread was deleted...
Cheers
CA Stu

OutCole'd
10-27-2005, 06:48 PM
c'mon, it shouldn't take a razor sharp with like yourself there scooter, to come up with those simple answers. :rolleyes:
What????

callbob4homes
10-27-2005, 07:17 PM
I have only bought one house Bob, and I bought it direct from the bank. It was a repo, and luckily enough it's on an acre, on a dead end road with only 3 other houses, private and a perfect place for me to raise my 3 children.
I had a bad experience with an agent while shopping for that house. I asked her to make an offer and she basically said that she thought it was too low and she didn't want to make it. Then she told my wife that I "wasn't ready to buy a house". I felt like she was acting unethically by not following my instructions and then trying to pit my wife against me. Oh well, she got none of my money. I bought the house the same week she pulled that crap. Negotiated a fair deal and am still very happy with the choice I made to go independant.
Bob, I'm self employed and run my own business, have since I was 21. I'm 38 now, still in the same business. Overpaid? Is there such a thing?
As far as "coming out of someone else's pocket", that is beside the point! I find it extremely hard to justify $30-60k commission on any sale. When you break it down by time, that's a ridiculous hourly rate. I'll do the legwork myself, negotiate a fair deal, and pay a lawyer $350 an hour to help me do all the paperwork, and still come out ahead by a very substantial percentage.
And as far as the pompous self-righteous person with the "have you ever helped anyone buy a house" BS, well, yes I have.
I helped my Mom buy her first house when I was 19. I kicked in for the downpayment, cosigned for her, and I never slept in that house one night. That was a brand new house she bought straight from the builder.
Now she lives about 1/4 mile from me, she sold her first house and moved up.
Maybe having nothing as a kid has made me value money differently than folks that were lucky (?) enough to have no monetary worries growing up.
Bob I don't begrudge anyone making a living on commission, as long as they don't make it all off of me!
I didn't mean to imply that everyone with a R/E license is a money grubbing, egomaniacal small-minded self-important jerk with a Napoleon complex, Bob! Just thought the $900k "bargain" was in poor taste, in the wrong forum, and generally tacky. I felt like it was trying to fleece a fellow board member to be brutally honest, and thought I'd see if I could make someone's head explode.
I'm sure there are good realtors out there, I just get the feeling that it takes more than 2 or 3 years to become one.
Thanks
CA Stu
Now see, is that so hard? Instead of calling REALTORS "turd burglars" and other statements to demean, why not just state upfront your one time bad experience? I would have run that bitch off myself. (and where do you get the idea she was going to get some of "your" money?) I have been self employed most of my life as well. I bought my first Freightliner tractor when I was 23 (1974) and a couple more after that. Went broke enough times to decide to change occupations. (checks in the mail!)
Overpaid? you brought that part up without knowing just how much time and effort goes into some RE deals. I wrote 12 contracts for one family in a 3 month time period before finally getting one to stick. I couldn't even begin to tell you how many houses I looked at for her and with her. I would pull up new listings every hour to try to get the jump on every other agent. (and just for a little more info, most were for 10 to 12K over asking price!) Figure the hourly on that.
30k to 60k commissions? Remember commissions are split unless you get both ends and that don't happen very often and those big of deals don't happen very often unless you are in Cal or Scottsdale.
Why would you pay a lawyer 350 an hour to negotiate a sale for you the buyer, when it doesn't cost you the commission to buy? Don't make good sense to me.
You have bought one house (for yourself) you don't pay commission to buy, yet you feel you know enough about it to make outrageous statements. You still never answered my questions. Would you use an agent to find you a home if you were moving, and just what business are you in?
I have the feeling that I might like you if I met you, but you really don't have a clue as to what some of us in this business go through on a daily basis. Just remember youngster, we all ain't cut from the same cloth.
The whole world isn't out to get you, just those guys from Beaumont

callbob4homes
10-27-2005, 07:19 PM
What????
sorry, fixed it [ wit ]

riverroyal
10-27-2005, 07:28 PM
about boats are we?

cdog
10-27-2005, 08:06 PM
I guess I went a little over board with 90%. Let's say 40% assholes. :D I think we can all agree on that number. Lately it seems as though people here are so quick to flame and put down someone else. I've had my moments with some beaner comments. :D But you'd never hear me be little someone for selling cars or swinging a hammer or what ever they do for a living. We're here to talk about boating, share info and stories but sometimes that leads to other topics. There's trash in every biz. I'm 3rd generation in my family in Real Estate. My grandfather owned brokerage offices that he sold to Tarbell and Coldwell Banker back in the day. I bought my first home when I was 19. Real Estate can be very rewarding when helping first time buyers and single moms. If you're in it to get rich, you will most likely fail at it. People's perception on how it works is very far off reality. There will allways be negitave people with snide comments. This topic hit home for me a little more than usual. In reading the comments I thought of all the countless hours put in on people who waist my time, away from serious clients and away from my family.It's not just about a sign and duct take. My business plan is more about taking care of people and helping them make one of the most important decisions in their life's. While I do make a living at it, Compensation comes after the deal is closed.

Ivan Dan
10-27-2005, 09:27 PM
I didn't mean to imply that everyone with a R/E license is a money grubbing, egomaniacal small-minded self-important jerk with a Napoleon complex, Bob! Just thought the $900k "bargain" was in poor taste, in the wrong forum, and generally tacky. I felt like it was trying to fleece a fellow board member to be brutally honest, and thought I'd see if I could make someone's head explode.
Thanks
CA Stu
Hey Stu....if you were buying a house and you could get one at market value of $925k or at a great buy of $900k which one would you choose???? We ALL know the answer to this question. Everyone spams the $hit out of this place with everything from concert tickets, family businesses, cars, trucks, trailers, to boats. What was wrong with trying to help my clients sell and maybe get someone a decent price on a new home??? Now if the place appraised at $875k and I was advertising it on here for $900k+ that might be considered "tacky and fleecing a fellow board member" but thats not the case here is it???

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 07:15 AM
Hey Stu....if you were buying a house and you could get one at market value of $925k or at a great buy of $900k which one would you choose???? What was wrong with trying to help my clients sell and maybe get someone a decent price on a new home??? Now if the place appraised at $875k and I was advertising it on here for $900k+ that might be considered "tacky and fleecing a fellow board member" but thats not the case here is it???
Those are all opinions my friend. The market will determine the value of the property. Obviously the market does not feel it is even a great buy at $900k. Just another sign of a weakening market??? (Reminds me that you never addressed any of the signs.)
Come on Dan. You know by advertising it on here you hope to represent both the seller and buyer collecting the full commission. Even if you only collect 2.75% it is still in insult to offer $1k out of the minimum $24,750 gross you'll collect. Sounds like a "Great Deal" for you!

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 07:17 AM
Everyone spams the $hit out of this place with everything from concert tickets, family businesses, cars, trucks, trailers, to boats.
Aren't all those things personal items???

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 09:20 AM
Those are all opinions my friend. The market will determine the value of the property. Obviously the market does not feel it is even a great buy at $900k. Just another sign of a weakening market??? (Reminds me that you never addressed any of the signs.)
Come on Dan. You know by advertising it on here you hope to represent both the seller and buyer collecting the full commission. Even if you only collect 2.75% it is still in insult to offer $1k out of the minimum $24,750 gross you'll collect. Sounds like a "Great Deal" for you!
Haven't you figured out that ASSuming things makes you look pretty dumb. Again, you have NO idea what I have as far as agreements with my seller. They are one of my best friends parents and they want the house sold....PERIOD! They have asked me to do whatever it takes to do so. I am going to make 2.25% if I sell it through the MLS and 2.75% if I sell it on here with dual agency. WOW I'm gonna be rich with that extra .5%. Your such a big baller that $1000 isn't enough for you? If I was making 5% of $900k you MIGHT have a point but its still none of your damn business.
Give it a friggin rest man your sorry little story of the market "tanking" is getting really old. We all heard you the first 20 times you spewed that crap out of your mouth. And if I recall you've been predicting the market to "tank" for quite some time now throughout almost every thread that is loan. interest rates or real estate related. It may....it may not....YOU nor anyone else really knows what is going to happen. Just drop it!

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 09:31 AM
Haven't you figured out that ASSuming things makes you look pretty dumb. Again, you have NO idea what I have as far as agreements with my seller. They are one of my best friends parents and they want the house sold....PERIOD! They have asked me to do whatever it takes to do so. I am going to make 2.25% if I sell it through the MLS and 2.75% if I sell it on here with dual agency. WOW I'm gonna be rich with that extra .5%. Your such a big baller that $1000 isn't enough for you? If I was making 5% of $900k you MIGHT have a point but its still none of your damn business.
Give it a friggin rest man your sorry little story of the market "tanking" is getting really old. We all heard you the first 20 times you spewed that crap out of your mouth. And if I recall you've been predicting the market to "tank" for quite some time now throughout almost every thread that is loan. interest rates or real estate related. It may....it may not....YOU nor anyone else really knows what is going to happen. Just drop it!
You just look plain stupid! I haven't been saying it is going to tank until about a month ago. You are the one that has to resort to selling a house that is a great deal on a Boat Forum! I guess reducing the price of a home that is "worth" $925k to accepting offers from $850-900k isn't any indication of a market turning. Apparently you haven't had much interest in the property and the sellers are getting desperate to sell the house because they can see the writing on the wall as well.
I notice you can't debate items by actually addressing any of the issues. Don't get mad when you might have to go out and get another job to pay for all the stuff you can't really afford. You like most other realtors are going to look like a deer caught in headlights by next summer. You keep selling the general public a line of BS. I can't wait for the backlash!
I've got a proposal for you. Let's make a $1k bet that by next June that the YOY median sales price of homes has declined. We can even put it into an escrow account if you want.

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 09:38 AM
Haven't you figured out that ASSuming things makes you look pretty dumb. Again, you have NO idea what I have as far as agreements with my seller. They are one of my best friends parents and they want the house sold....PERIOD! They have asked me to do whatever it takes to do so. I am going to make 2.25% if I sell it through the MLS and 2.75% if I sell it on here with dual agency. WOW I'm gonna be rich with that extra .5%. Your such a big baller that $1000 isn't enough for you? If I was making 5% of $900k you MIGHT have a point but its still none of your damn business.
Than apparently you don't know how to fill out the MLS form. You should have it checked as dual/var checked as yes. So it is your error that leads me to my assumption. Or could I have been right and you are cheap.

RiverToysJas
10-28-2005, 09:39 AM
Man you guys type a lot! This is all I need to know about real estate. (http://www.soldbygilda.com/) ;) ....and her 28' Eliminator Eagle is nice too!!! :D
RTJas :D

bigq
10-28-2005, 10:14 AM
Just wanted to throw more fuel on the fire :D
Reuters has the latest on new home sales. "Sales of new homes rose more slowly than expected in September, while the number of new houses on the market hit a record and median prices fell, according to a government report on Thursday that could signal cooling in the housing boom."
"The Commerce Department said new single-family home sales rose 2.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.222 million units from 1.197 million unit pace in August. While sales rose, the supply of homes available for sale shot up to a record 493,000 at the end of September, surpassing August's high of 478,000. The median home sales price fell 5.7 percent to $215,700."
"Recent data have begun to suggest some cooling in the market. Earlier this week, a trade group said home resales came in flat in September but would have been lower if not for aggressive buying around hurricane-impacted areas."
"Regionally, new home sales in September jumped 24.9 percent in the Midwest and 5.6 percent in the South. But sales tumbled 20 percent in the Northeast and 11.8 percent in the West, the regions that have posted the double-digit home price appreciation that many economists think is unsustainable."

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 10:31 AM
Totenhosen~ Here is a little data for you that should just about cover every one of your questions you had. Be sure to take the time to read it all then let me know your thougths.

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 10:47 AM
The following is the outline Gary Watts is using in his current talk on the housing market. It shows why demand for housing continues to remain strong while supply is shrinking. It explains why the forecasting of housing declines by the pundits are wrong, once again, and why real estate values throughout most of California should continue to grow at a 15% appreciation rate. If your wondering how often Gary has been right, here is his record for the 21st Century.
Year Pundits Gary Actual
2000 8.0% 12.5% 13.0%
2001 7.7% 12.0% 10.1%
2002 2.8% 10.0% 16.8%
2003 2.0% 15.0% 19.1%
2004 -2.7% 25.0% 24.8%
2005 -7.4% 15.0% 16.1% as of August 2005
His record has been very good and it goes back to 1989 when he told the real estate industry that their Party was Over and real estate would turn downward for at least 5 years losing close to 30% in value! He became known as Dr. Doom & Gloom and Scary Gary - until his 1996 forecast. It was then that he said the downturn was over and we would be in for another great run-up in real estate values that may last 10 years or longer!
A joint study by both Columbia University and the Wharton School of Business found that the bubble is a myth! The growth in housing prices of 46
single-family markets over 25 years is due to basic economic fundamentals, strong incomes and low interest rates!
California Housing Bust of 1990 - 1996 was caused by a huge decline in aerospace and defense jobs. In the mid 1980s, President Regan proposed a Star Wars defense project. California was receiving 1/3 of all defense contracts with 40% of that total going to northern California and almost 60% going to southern California! The builders began large housing developments to meet the employment demands and built these tracts based upon the economy of construction. November 9, 1989 - the Berlin Wall came down, ending both the Communist regime in the Soviet Union and the Stars Wars program. The major defense contractors, followed by the smaller sub-contractors, began massive lay-offs. Southern California lost 750,000 jobs in 3 years! The builders' supply of empty and unfinished housing rose insignificantly; developmental land sat vacant; foreclosures began. By the end of the decline, many properties lost 30% of their value!
In the latter part of 2001, the forecasts for 2002 began with predictions of a "burst in 2002" and significant declines in housing prices. The impacts of the dot com burst were still lingering then the terrorist attacks hit the U.S., leading to major disruptions in the economy and hurting employment. Additionally, we began fighting a war in Afghanistan! When 2002 came to a close, real estate had gone up 7.8% in the U.S., while home prices rose 14.6% in California. Northern California home prices rose 15.6%; Central Valley prices were up 13%; southern California prices rose 19.3% and Orange County prices rose 16.8%. The Housing Bubble talk became more heated in the forecasts for 2003, with the introduction of the idea that supposedly higher interest rates would cause our over-priced real estate to finally burst. Since we were heading towards a war in Iraq, it was thought that the resulting bigger deficits would mean rapidly rising interest rates, which would hurt homeowners with adjustable rates. As 2003 came to a close, rates declined and real estate prices continued to rise, with the U.S. going up 8.1% and California going up an amazing 19.4%. Northern California cooled by rising only 11.5% (dot com bust), while the Central Valley and southern California were up 20% and 21.9% respectively. Orange County went up 19.1%. With 2004 just around the corner, other forecasters began jumping
onto the bandwagon with negative forecasts for housing price declines of 2.7% to 10% per year for the next 2 years. According to these forecasts, because we were in a war with Iraq, interest rates were definitely going to rise. One forecaster said "the California economy is rolling along on a false sense of wealth". The affordability index was dropping, and the predictions were that buyers would have trouble qualifying for loans and the bubble would burst. 2004 . . . interest rates did not rise: they actually fell. Real estate went up 10.4% in the U.S. and up 20.9% in California. Northern California prices rose 18 %; the Central Valley gained strength at 19.3% and southern California was up 22.5%. The big winner was Orange County, where real estate went up 24.8%! At the end of 2004, the "experts" knew the real estate bubble "burst" was going to hit hard next year, with home prices dropping 8% to 15%. Why? Because interest rates would reach 8%. With the affordability index reaching record lows and the price of oil doubling, they thought adjustable and interest-only loans would hurt buyers and create foreclosures. Year to date for 2005,rates are lower than a year ago and U.S. housing is up 15.8%. These lower rates added 8.7% to a buyer's purchasing power. California has gone up 18.1%. The big winner this year was the Central Valley, skyrocketing 29.6%. Northern California is up 16 %, while southern California has risen 17.0%. Here in Orange County, resale homes and condos have gone up 16.0% and 20.1%, respectively.
The pundits are at it once again with their 2006 forecasts, which are not pretty! They are predicting an increase in interest rates due to the volatility in oil prices, the protracted war in Iraq and the costs of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. They now claim that housing prices should decline 7% to 10%. Some are reporting that California real estate is over-valued by 40 to 45% and that a major recession will occur in 2007! One local university wrote this past June (regarding their 2006 forecast for real estate): "We understand why this forecast might be met with cat-calls. Our inability to accurately forecast housing prices the past several years does not leave us with In the real world of human knowledge, to be wrong by such a large percentage, for such a long period of time is taken as an indication you don't have a good grasp on what you are estimating! (tweaking a quote from Michael Crichton's fictional novel: State of Fear) a whole lot of credibility".
What the forecasters should NOT be looking at: 1st - Affordability Index - This index assumes a buyer has no equity down payment and is putting down 20% to buy. In the U.S., you would need an income of $50,650 to afford the median priced home of $220,000, which would limit the ability to purchase a home to only 45.9% of the population. In California, only 16% would be able to buy, provided they have an income of $125,670. In southern California, family income falls short by $67,000 to buy a median priced home. Only 11% can afford a home in OC with an income of $164,220. It gets worse in Sonoma, Santa Barbara and Napa at 7%, and San Francisco at 4%. Only 1% can qualify in Santa Cruz. In the past 5 years, California residential equity has gone up by $1 Trillion! In that time, Orange County residential property prices have gone up 118%! Today's buyers have equity and, with lower interest rates, their mortgage costs are lower than they were in the early '80s when they represented 30% of household income. Today, mortgage costs only average 17.5% of household income! Sellers received a net of $220,240 from the sale of their home - an all time high! Repeat buyers' down payments average $119,000, while 1st time buyers have average down payments of $47,000! Last year in California, we sold 33,107 million dollar homes. This year, we will easily exceed 40,000! Here is a list of the top 10 median prices by zip code in California. What the forecasters should NOT be looking at: 2nd - Rising Interest Rates - Huge employment gains are causing a gushing of money into the Treasury; funding requirements were reduced by $59 billion for the July/September time period. There is a global savings glut that has translated into heavy competition to lock in long term yields. Foreigners purchased $71 billion of T-Bills in the last quarter. pension funds, insurance companies and public/private corporations are all trying to off-set retirement obligations. We also have 78 million baby-boomers looking towards retirement and converting IRAs, 401Ks, Roth, Sep IRA and other retirement accounts into income funds. Add to this a the fact that excess manpower and machinery are being reduced in most industries and you can begin to understand why the core index is 2.2% vs. 1.9% a year ago. Even with all the oil price surges, the consumer price index is at 3.6% - well below the 4.2% historical average. This helps explain why mortgage payments are now 8% less (in the U.S.) than they were in 1989, and .02% less (adjusted for inflation), than they were in California. Fixed rate loans are at 5.71% vs. 5.83% a year ago. Adjustable rate loans were 4.0% a year ago; today, they are only 4.45%. Even if interest rates were to rise, it would not affect most homeowners. Here's what the Mortgage Bankers Association tells us about home loans in America: 35% own their home outright - so no interest rate problem there; 50% have fixed rate loans - many refinancing to lower rates with fewer years; 15% have adjustable rate/ interest - 8% of those being high wealth income earners. Therefore: Only 7% of all mortgages are rate sensitive! For housing prices to decline, a majority of households would need to have adjustable rate loans that were exceeding 8.5%! Another way to look at this is to note that, out of $7.3 trillion in mortgages, only $83 billion are adjustable or interest-only loans! Today, 1/8 of homeowners spend 50% of household income on housing, while 1/3 spend just 30%. The media only talks about the explosion in housing debt. Homeowners' equity growth in the 1st quarter of 2005 was up over $300 billion in the U.S. Today, we have $16.6 Trillion in household value vs. only $7.3 Trillion in mortgage debt. This is a 57% equity position - a fairly large buffer against price declines! This also explains why foreclosures are going through a 9-year decline and are at a record low. The U.S. foreclosure rate is 1.0% - the lowest in 25 years. "Expensive" California is at .17%- the lowest in the nation! Through August of 2005, 33,868 homes were sold in Orange County in 2005, and only 81 of those were foreclosure sales! Looking at Reality- Demand vs. Supply - You cannot have a housing bubble when demand exceeds supply!
Demand for Housing - Current housing boom has lasted 13 to 15 years! In 1990, 2.9 million existing homes were sold in the U.S. Today, existing homes sales are on track to reach 7.29 million. In California, repeat buyers make up 2/3 of the market. Demand for existing homes has grown 114% - while supply has fallen 4%! The new home market (inventory relative to pace of sales) is near its lowest level. New home sales would have to drop by over 33% for over a year to reach equilibrium. New home demand is up 143% - with only a 23% increase in supply! Last year, California developers built 210,000 units (homes/condos/apartments). This was a near record, yet still fell 40,000 to 50,000 units short of the demand. Half of this shortfall occurs in southern California! The State population growth rate is 1.6%, with 600,000 more people added last year. Over the past 3 years in southern California, the population has increased by 1.1 million! Four of the 10 fastest growing areas in the U.S. are located in California. The #2 spot goes to the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area - up 15.7%. Stockton is #4 at 14.4%, and the # 8 is the Sacramento-Roseville area up 11.5%. Bakersfield is #10 with a 10.7% growth rate. In the next 10 to 15 years, 3.5 million more people will reside in southern California. That is the current population size of Orange County! Orange County's housing demand is 15,000 (+) units per year but, in the last 12 months, only 4,159 single family residences and 3,917 condos/apartments were built. This demand is coming in waves, the 1st wave being the baby boomers who are now in their early 40's and late 50's. They found a way to mix leisure with work and are not ready to fully retire - they have money and income and are still investing in real estate. As investors, they average 47 years of age, have an average yearly income of $85,000 and were responsible for 23% of all sales last year. As 2nd homes purchasers, they are approximately 55 years of age, are making $71,000 yearly and were responsible for 13% of all sales in 2004! The 2nd wave of home buyers are predicted to grow at a rate of 1.17 million per year for the next 10 years. They are 1st time home buyers (median age 36). Those purchasing upscale properties have a median age of 45. The 3rd wave of home buyers is the largest group. They are presently 23 to 33 years of age and will total 1.2 million new households per year for the next decade! It's happening all over the world! Residential real estate is up $30 trillion in 5 years!
In the past 12 months, the U.S. population grew by 2.9 million persons. Between now and the year 2015, demand for new homes is on track to total as many as 20 million units annually. By 2030, there will be 80 million more people living in the U.S.! The resulting housing needs will require that an average of 2 million units per year are built, but our record for building is 1.1 million a year! The housing market continues each year to set new records. New home sales totaled 1.1 million units last year, while sales of existing homes passed the 6.94 million mark! There are now 74.8 million homeowners (1.6 million new homeowners in the past year), who make up 69% of our population - a new high! No state in the U.S. has recorded a decline in housing prices! The median home price is up 15.8% (year to date) to 220,000! Adding more pressures to the already strained housing market are the new players in home-ownership. There has been a 30% growth among women owning homes and a 27% increase in minorities owning homes (15.7 million). Single or unmarried homeowners are remaining single longer. They are also maintaining larger homes for their "floating children." Last year, home purchases by "single buyers" exceeded "married with children"! We have 100 million acres of land in California, but only 5 million acres can be developed! With 36.8 million residents, California ranks #1 in population in the nation. Demand for housing is staying strong, but land available for development is diminishing. Environmental issues restrict or reduce the size of developments, while political- and regulatory-driven supply constraints continue to hamper development of new housing. These issues are creating a state of permanently higher prices! California now has had 5 consecutive years where housing appreciation exceeded 10%. The median home prices (as of August) for some counties look like this: Marin- $806,000 ? San Francisco- $745,000 ? San Mateo -$773,000 ? Santa Clara- $654,000 In Orange County, developers plan to build 54,815 units over the next 10 to 15 years. The strategy for development in the county will be similar to San Francisco and Los Angeles, where demand-driven development has gone vertical as less buildable land is available. There are currently 32 high-rise condominium towers under construction or in various stages of pre-development in Orange County. Equilibrium (or an equal number of buyers and sellers) tends to average between 5.5 to 6 months in the U.S. Currently, the supply averages only 4.8 months. California's supply now averages 2.8 months. Northern California's supply is the lowest at 1.5 months. The Central Valley's supply averages 2.8 months and southern California averages 3.6 months. Los Angeles and Orange County average 2.6 months and 1.9 months, respectively.
So Where is the Risk? . . . The only risk to housing is a big decline in employment! Our Growing U.S. Economy - Gross Domestic Income of $11,750,000,000,000 The U.S. has now had 10 consecutive quarters in which our Gross Domestic Product exceeded 3%. Forecasters are stating that the U.S. GDP will remain above 3% throughout 2006. In the past 12 months, the U.S. has employed 2.1 million new people - a growth rate of 1.7%. The economy added another 1.5 million jobs so far this year, which is on target to match 2004's 2.2 million (the best since 1999). But there's more to the story. Add another 1 million jobs for self-employed and incorporated individuals, who do not show up on the employment rolls. Today, there are 12.2 million self-employed people and another 3.2 million who are incorporated. Consumers are spending $200 billion annually - helping to fuel economic growth. The unemployment rate for September was 5.1% - the lowest since 2003! Gains in taxable income are adding revenue to the federal government, and the federal deficit is actually shrinking - based upon its percentage of the GDP! Federal deficits are only 3.6% of the GDP (6.0% in 1983 and 4.7% in 1992)!
California - The Power State for the Nation - Eleven percent of all employed workers in the U.S. are employed in California. They produce 12%-15% of the total GDP of the nation. In the past 12 months, California added 223,000 jobs, and today there are over 16.957 million workers in the state! California has one of the most diversified economies in the world, serving the Pacific Rim through trade, a growing service sector, and expanding electronics and manufacturing! Add high-tech, the financial sector, bio-tech, tourism, agriculture and government, and it is easy to see why California is one powerful state! When northern California lost 250,000 jobs during the dot.com period, real estate prices continued to rise. As of July, the median home price in the Bay Area was $724,890! The Bay Area now employs 2,393,300 people and the Central Valley employs 2,174,700. Southern California has added 90,000 new jobs in the past 18 months for a total of 9,917,100 jobs! In southern California, 95% of companies employ fewer than 50 people! Today's technologies enable companies to become highly productive with fewer people, ending the boom-bust cycle and its massive lay-offs! The State unemployment rate of 5.2% is declining in almost every county. Northern California is at 4.74%, the Central Valley is at 7.3% and the 7 southern California counties average 4.72%.
Orange County - An Economic Powerhouse - Using World Bank formulas, Orange County would rank as the 34th most powerful country in the world (out of 184) with a gross county income of $160.7 Billion. "The OC" added 24,400 jobs in the past 12 months. It now has a highly educated and skilled work force numbering 1,576,800 people, and a median income of $64,000.00. In the state, OC ranks #1 for local jobs in the wholesale trade and ranks #2 for jobs in finance and insurance. OC ranks #2 in southern California, with a job growth rate of 1.6%. In the nation, Orange County ranks #8 in manufacturing employment (184,800 jobs). By June of 2005, venture capital investment had more than doubled from all of last year. For the second straight year, OC is ranked #1 in Business Week's "100 Hot Growth companies." Office vacancies are at a 5 year low - even with all the new buildings coming on line! Orange County's unemployment rate is 3.8%, the lowest in the State. For major metro areas in the U.S., Orange County has the 2nd lowest unemployment rate! The reason we continue to lead the State and rank high in the nation for low unemployment is due to what economists call The Triple Endowment! First, an entrepreneurial culture where new business ideas can evolve. Second, access to venture capital so those business ideas can become reality. Third, an educated pool of talent that is very difficult to duplicate. "The OC" is a magnet for tourists - attracting 44.8 million visitors who spend $7.85 billion annually. The County receives 45% of Disneyland's $3.6 billion annual revenue dollars. Since 2000, the County's population growth (at 3.9%) ranks it the 8th fastest growing county in the nation. Orange County's population exceeds 3,040,000 and equals 1% of the population of the entire United States. With only 3,600 square miles of land, it has become the 3rd most densely populated area in the nation. Orange County has a dynamic economy in one of the most desirable locations in the world. Most of the county was, and continues to be, developed under strict zoning guidelines. Meanwhile, our population growth continues to keep upward pressure on the housing market! Since only 1% of our sellers move out of this county, it is easy to see why our demand continues to exceed our supply! Today, OC has only 7,750 active listings vs.11,426 a year ago! We have entered the seasonally declining cycle where the net amount of listings should continue to decline through March '06. We presently have a 7.9 week supply of homes. Over the next 3 months, we should lose one week a month, leaving OC a housing supply of 4.9 weeks as we enter the buying cycle!

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 10:52 AM
Man you guys type a lot! This is all I need to know about real estate. (http://www.soldbygilda.com/) ;) ....and her 28' Eliminator Eagle is nice too!!! :D
RTJas :D
Gilda and Chris are both very nice people. She does a ton of biz in the Anaheim Hills area.

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 11:45 AM
I find it very interesting. At the same time I can't give it much credibility because he is a R/E broker himself. He would be basically bad mouthing his own business. Do you think that is good for him to do?
Anyways to address the article a few things that I feel he does not address:
- how the hell are the pundits? (Nice spin! This guy sound run for office)
- the heavy reliance on people to get ARM's and I/O loans because they can't trully afford the homes they live in via conventional lending.
- the fraud that is rampant in the mortgage lending industry via stated income loans etc.
- loss of middle class wage earners to other states.
- decrease/loss of middle class jobs.
- psychology of the buying public.
- declining in home builder stocks and the recent large selloff of closely held shares.
Why don't you give me your answer instead of R/E propaganda?

CA Stu
10-28-2005, 12:01 PM
I've got a proposal for you. Let's make a $1k bet that by next June that the YOY median sales price of homes has declined. We can even put it into an escrow account if you want.
Ha! I was going to bet an 18 pack that it sold for less than the $900k "bargain" price. I'll even hold it in escrow in my fridge.
Cheers
CA Stu
PS Bob, if I ever need an agent, I will choose the only one that truly has my best interests at heart. Like myself.

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 01:23 PM
Today, mortgage costs only average 17.5% of household income! Sellers received a net of $220,240 from the sale of their home - an all time high! Repeat buyers' down payments average $119,000, while 1st time buyers have average down payments of $47,000!
Who are these first time buyers with down payments of $47K? Maybe he is including so-called "gift funds" or silent seconds in this figures.
Here's what the Mortgage Bankers Association tells us about home loans in America: 35% own their home outright - so no interest rate problem there; 50% have fixed rate loans - many refinancing to lower rates with fewer years; 15% have adjustable rate/ interest - 8% of those being high wealth income earners. Therefore: Only 7% of all mortgages are rate sensitive!
That is for the US not CA. Comparing apples to oranges.
With 36.8 million residents, California ranks #1 in population in the nation. Demand for housing is staying strong, but land available for development is diminishing.
Plently of land still available. How many of those are illegals? Maybe we can put 3-4 familes together in a house. W/o decent jobs who will afford the homes?
Orange County - An Economic Powerhouse - Using World Bank formulas, Orange County would rank as the 34th most powerful country in the world (out of 184) with a gross county income of $160.7 Billion. "The OC" added 24,400 jobs in the past 12 months.
How many of those jobs are related to R/E? How many new licensed salespeople are there. Everyone has a friend in the industry. Just look at half the people here. If R/E takes a dip than so does all those "newly" created jobs including construction.

callbob4homes
10-28-2005, 03:30 PM
couple of things and I am done with this.........................
Stu, you should do all your own legwork and finding a home on your own. and I am sure you will do well with it. After buying one house and helping your mother find a new build, how much more experience would you need?
and you never did answer me about what line of work you do, but thats ok, I have few ideas :wink:
Now as far as predictions and market conditions go. Opinions are just that, some with merit, some without, but all with the conviction they are right. Too bad it isn't that simple. Maybe we should all just live in the same box house in the same cookie cutter neighborhood and all the homes cost the same. Oh yeah, the cost of living, wages, insurance and gas prices all the same as well. No need to be in the stock market because everything stays the same. No speculation, no rise and fall, just the same for everyone. My research and my experience as well as listening to economists here in this area tell me that no the sky isn't falling, but possibly coming back to realistic (if there is such a thing) market values. The anamoly of the recent year long meteoric price hikes is apparently over. (for now anyway) The crux of the matter as I see it, is simply to do what feels right for your situation and your beliefs as well as your finances. The diversity of the housing market, as well as the stock market and other financial institutions, are what makes some people crazy. It also makes some very wealthy. There will always be "I told you so" folks on either side of the fence. Look at the boating industry. (had to throw some boat talk into it) Not everybody buys the same boat, same powerplant or goes to the same shop for service. Same thing.....opinions again.
That is it for me on this subject as it has been beat to death from the get go. I will keep doing what I do and I am sure you all will do the same.
Bob

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 03:34 PM
That was cool Bob :clover:

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 03:46 PM
Today, mortgage costs only average 17.5% of household income! Sellers received a net of $220,240 from the sale of their home - an all time high! Repeat buyers' down payments average $119,000, while 1st time buyers have average down payments of $47,000!
Who are these first time buyers with down payments of $47K? Maybe he is including so-called "gift funds" or silent seconds in this figures.
Here's what the Mortgage Bankers Association tells us about home loans in America: 35% own their home outright - so no interest rate problem there; 50% have fixed rate loans - many refinancing to lower rates with fewer years; 15% have adjustable rate/ interest - 8% of those being high wealth income earners. Therefore: Only 7% of all mortgages are rate sensitive!
That is for the US not CA. Comparing apples to oranges.
With 36.8 million residents, California ranks #1 in population in the nation. Demand for housing is staying strong, but land available for development is diminishing.
Plently of land still available. How many of those are illegals? Maybe we can put 3-4 familes together in a house. W/o decent jobs who will afford the homes?
Orange County - An Economic Powerhouse - Using World Bank formulas, Orange County would rank as the 34th most powerful country in the world (out of 184) with a gross county income of $160.7 Billion. "The OC" added 24,400 jobs in the past 12 months.
How many of those jobs are related to R/E? How many new licensed salespeople are there. Everyone has a friend in the industry. Just look at half the people here. If R/E takes a dip than so does all those "newly" created jobs including construction.
I'm done arguing with you as you obviously have your opinion and I have mine. Again, you nor ANYONE else knows what is going to happen....can you agree with that? Only time will tell!!!
One question for you.....Are you an active full time agent? If so, what do you tell your buyer clients? "Oh sorry I don't think you should buy right now so I won't help you" I'm curious how anyone would want to work with you with the outlook you have. What happens "IF" the market continues to appreciate?!?!

Ivan Dan
10-28-2005, 03:49 PM
couple of things and I am done with this.........................
Stu, you should do all your own legwork and finding a home on your own. and I am sure you will do well with it. After buying one house and helping your mother find a new build, how much more experience would you need?
and you never did answer me about what line of work you do, but thats ok, I have few ideas :wink:
Now as far as predictions and market conditions go. Opinions are just that, some with merit, some without, but all with the conviction they are right. Too bad it isn't that simple. Maybe we should all just live in the same box house in the same cookie cutter neighborhood and all the homes cost the same. Oh yeah, the cost of living, wages, insurance and gas prices all the same as well. No need to be in the stock market because everything stays the same. No speculation, no rise and fall, just the same for everyone. My research and my experience as well as listening to economists here in this area tell me that no the sky isn't falling, but possibly coming back to realistic (if there is such a thing) market values. The anamoly of the recent year long meteoric price hikes is apparently over. (for now anyway) The crux of the matter as I see it, is simply to do what feels right for your situation and your beliefs as well as your finances. The diversity of the housing market, as well as the stock market and other financial institutions, are what makes some people crazy. It also makes some very wealthy. There will always be "I told you so" folks on either side of the fence. Look at the boating industry. (had to throw some boat talk into it) Not everybody buys the same boat, same powerplant or goes to the same shop for service. Same thing.....opinions again.
That is it for me on this subject as it has been beat to death from the get go. I will keep doing what I do and I am sure you all will do the same.
Bob
Well stated!!

totenhosen
10-28-2005, 03:52 PM
I'm done arguing with you as you obviously have your opinion and I have mine. Again, you nor ANYONE else knows what is going to happen....can you agree with that? Only time will tell!!!
One question for you.....Are you an active full time agent? If so, what do you tell your buyer clients? "Oh sorry I don't think you should buy right now so I won't help you" I'm curious how anyone would want to work with you with the outlook you have. What happens "IF" the market continues to appreciate?!?!
It's called educating buyers, you should try it. Let them make their own decisions with your guidance to minimize any potential pitfalls. For instance I wouldn't advise anyone to get an ARM right now when the pricing difference is .25 to .5%.

totenhosen
10-29-2005, 07:57 AM
This exchange was on the Street.com. "Cramer asked Ken Heebner about Donald Trump's comments yesterday on the strength of the high-end housing market. Heebner said Trump has 'a lot of high-end housing for sale. I understand why he's bullish. He wants to sell it to us. But, no. I think we've got a real problem in high-end housing, he said."
"For the first time in the last 50 years, said Heebner, there has been a '20% to 50% decline' in high-end housing in about 10 of the strongest high-end housing markets, he said. Are housing stocks finished, then? asked Cramer. 'They're going to take a pause,' said Heebner. 'They're going to have a disappointing environment, particularly at the high end,' adding that he believes the earnings will decline."
"'What is the trigger for your bearish view?' asked Cramer. Heebner said 'extreme financial speculation' at the high end is the culprit. The price level has been driven up by speculators and people bidding for homes without putting any money up through the use of adjustable-rate, interest-only loans and 100% loan-to-value mortgages, he said."
"Cramer summed up the interview saying Heebner has made more money in housing stocks than anybody. 'Donald Trump is less of a stock guy than Ken Heebner. I thought that was a worrisome, worrisome call by Mr. Heebner, and I'm not going to ignore it. Be skeptical about the housing stocks,' said Cramer."

CA Stu
10-29-2005, 10:16 AM
Foreclosure activity is up
HOMES: The tendency throughout California is more pronounced in the Inland region.
10:09 PM PDT on Thursday, October 27, 2005
By LESLIE BERKMAN / The Press-Enterprise
Home foreclosure activity in California is on the rise for the first time in more than three years, with Inland Southern California experiencing an increase greater than the statewide average, a real estate information service reported Thursday.
The trend is attributed to lower home appreciation rates and riskier mortgages.
Default notices were sent to 12,568 homeowners statewide in the third quarter, a 3.5 percent increase from the same quarter last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
The last time default notices increased year-over-year was in the first quarter of 2002.
However, the current default rate is much lower than figures in the mid-1990s, after the real estate market had tumbled.
The rise in foreclosure activity is more pronounced in the Inland Empire, which in the third quarter saw a year-over-year increase of 13.4 percent in Riverside County and 9.6 percent in San Bernardino County.
In the third quarter, 1,266 homeowners received default notices in Riverside County, up from 1,116 a year ago.
In San Bernardino County, 1,269 homeowners were notified in the third quarter, compared with 1,158 a year ago.
Mike Bazdarich, senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said one quarter's data may be a "random variation" and not define a turning tide in the mortgage default rate.
Still, he predicted for the same reasons given by DataQuick that there will be a substantial increase in the foreclosure rate in the next six months to a year.
But he does not expect foreclosures will become as severe as in the 1990s, when an economic recession in Southern California caused housing prices to fall and people who lost their jobs could not pay their mortgages.
Bazdarich said as long as homeowners still are employed he believes they will make other financial sacrifices to retain their houses. He said he expects the increase in foreclosures will be "perceptible but not horrific."
Foreclosure activity continues to decline in the Central Valley and the Bay Area. Southern California pushed the statewide average higher. Default notices issued in Orange County were up 38.4 percent in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, and up 39.6 percent in San Diego County.
John Karevoll, a DataQuick analyst, said the current foreclosure activity is climbing from a historic low last year in the Inland Empire to a more normal level. He said when loan default notices reached a high in Riverside County in the first quarter of 1996, the number was more than four times as large than last quarter.
Also, he added San Bernardino's foreclosure activity was more than five times higher when it peaked in early 1997.
Karevoll said homeowners who run into financial difficulty are not as able to rely on their home equity to solve their financial problems as the rate of appreciation begins to slow.
According to DataQuick, about 10 percent of homeowners who receive a notice of default actually lose their homes to foreclosure. Most can stop the foreclosure process by bringing their mortgage payments current or by selling their home and paying off the mortgage.
Rich Gale, division president of Provident Bank Mortgage and a board member of the California Mortgage Bankers Association, said, "When homes appreciate, people will do whatever it takes to hang on to a property, and if they have to sell, there are many willing buyers to bail them out."

ROZ
10-29-2005, 10:49 AM
If it was Socratic, wouldn't it be in the form of a question?
I, too , am glad you checked in and gave us your Croesus-like perspective.
Nice, Stu ... :D
So why do you pick King Croesus? His demise or his prosperity before his demise? Nevermind, they are one in the same.. :cool:

ROZ
10-29-2005, 10:59 AM
To add...
I know 2 builders who are dramatically decreasing production in projects in both Ca. and Seattle. Trying to decide it this is seasonal or if a decline in on the horizon. Both would like to wait until Feb 06 to decide, but decisions to build on properties held in other states is beginning to be their better option...

CJ
11-05-2005, 05:54 PM
Gilda and Chris are both very nice people. She does a ton of biz in the Anaheim Hills area.
Thanks bro!!! Gilda is pretty hot!