Who still thinks the housing market has not popped?

[Freak]

West Coast:
Check out Bressie Ranch in Carlsbad (north San Diego) where average reduction is $60,000.
And check out La Costa Greens right next door, recent price reductions of $100,000 to $150,000.
East Coast:
"Boston-area homeowners trying to sell their houses are sharply reducing asking prices, in some cases, by $100,000 or more, in response to the sudden slowdown in the real estate market. The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts has dropped 7 percent in the past two months, to $349,000 for sales that closed in October."
Oh and oil is $60+ again and natural gas is going nutz $15+

[Outnumbered]

Definitely has not "popped" on the West Coast, but has slowed. I would define popped as what happened between 1991 and 1996 when we had declining values in most market areas of SoCal for several years in a row. The price reductions you are quoting are based on asking prices that were a little too aggressive (based on appreciation rates that are no longer sustainable). They are not declines in value. The days of 25-50% annualized appreciation rates are gone for a while and we will likely see zero to single digit appreciation for the short term and possibly declines over the next 2-5 years unless something changes in the economy. Just my $0.02 based on 15+ years in the RE biz.

[Phat Daddy]

It has slowed down a bit in SoCal. New housing development behind ours( our development is going on a year old) is still sold out. No reduction in prices but it will be interesting to see what the lenders do there.With prices in the high 8's and 9's with rising interest rates should see some people backing out.

[Freak]

The days of 25-50% annualized appreciation rates are gone for a while and we will likely see zero to single digit appreciation for the short term and possibly declines over the next 2-5 years unless something changes in the economy. Just my $0.02 based on 15+ years in the RE biz.
I agree with that.

[Blown Spectra]

I've seen many home for sale in the Glendale/Burbank area that have signs up that say "PRICE REDUCED TO SELL" I dont thinK the prices are drooping on these homes, but the owners are not getting what they want out of them... thats for sure.....
Eric

[totenhosen]

Just had a candid talk with a realtor who is in the top 1% of all realtors nationwide and she said that prices are off 10% from earlier this year already with inventory climbing. We will have to wait until spring I think to get a better sense of what is going on since there could be some seasonal issues.
My feeling based on the amount of fraud and over extended borrowers we will start seeing YOY declines by June.

[Red Horse]

In about 3-5 they will stabilize again and you will see some apprecitation. Sellers in a frenzied market tend to overvalue their wares anyway. They are just coming back to reality. That is all.

[Ziggy]

Those in Interest Only loans are biting nails I'd bet.

[Outnumbered]

Just had a candid talk with a realtor who is in the top 1% of all realtors nationwide and she said that prices are off 10% from earlier this year already with inventory climbing. We will have to wait until spring I think to get a better sense of what is going on since there could be some seasonal issues.
My feeling based on the amount of fraud and over extended borrowers we will start seeing YOY declines by June.
I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.

[Outnumbered]

He is wrong, I found the stat. Its 10% off in VOLUME for the month, not prices:
Home sales set a record — again; prices up almost 15%
By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Existing home sales set another record in the third quarter of 2005, and prices jumped nearly 15%, but even the National Association of Realtors in its report Tuesday said the housing market will probably begin cooling after its five-year boom.
Sales of single-family homes and condos rose to a 7.24-million annual pace in the July-September quarter, up 6.5% from a year earlier. At the same time, 69 of the 147 metropolitan areas studied had double-digit price gains, as the median price of a single-family home climbed 14.7%, year-over-year, to $215,900. That means half the homes that sold nationwide went for more than that, half for less. (Chart: Median prices in 150 metro areas.)
David Lereah, the Realtor's chief economist, predicts the heady gains will cool as interest rates rise.
"We're fairly confident that third-quarter home sales will prove to be the high point of the five-year housing boom," Lereah says.
There are scattered signs that the housing market has already begun to slow. Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now running about 6.3%, compared with 5.89% in the third quarter. The inventory of new and existing homes on the market is rising.
Still, DataQuick Information Services released a report Tuesday showing Southern California's housing market remained strong in October. A total of 28,489 homes were sold during the month — a roughly 10% drop from September, but a 1% gain from a year ago.
"The big question is still whether ... the real estate market will end this cycle with a crash or with a soft landing," says DataQuick President Marshall Prentice, calling the latter outcome more likely.
The NAR said Phoenix had the most robust price gains in the third quarter of 2005: The median home price soared 55.2% to $268,000 from the same period in 2004. In Orlando, home prices rose 44.8% to a median $261,300, while Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., saw a 42.5% price gain to $277,600.
Median prices ranged from $72,800 in Danville, Ill., to $721,900 in San Francisco. Elmira, N.Y., and Decatur, Ill., were also among the least expensive markets, while Anaheim, Calif., Honolulu and San Diego ranked with San Francisco as the priciest.
Six areas had small price drops during the period, though the Realtors said the weakness was concentrated in lower-priced cities with large inventories of unsold homes, a weak job market or both.
The housing market has been a main economic driver, buoying the job market and boosting consumer spending as owners have extracted hundreds of billions in equity. High Frequency Economics says that even a slowdown to more traditional rates of home construction could shave 2 percentage points off annual economic growth, now running at a 3.8% pace.

[YeLLowBoaT]

In my neck of the woods I would say a 5-15% drop in house prices is just about right. Which is good( atleast for this area) the prices were just a joke.
I really think the "bubble" will burst when all these ppl that bought there homes for outrages price, start to defalt on thier loans. Most ppl that have bought homes in the last few years are ONE MONTH away from losing every thing. Think I am wrong??? how much to you have in your "rainy day fund"?
Could you pay your bills next month if you lost your job monday? Now I don't want that to seem as attack, I am just saying that almost every 1 would be skrewed if lost our jobs. I know I could maybe make it a month but thats about it.

[totenhosen]

I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.
She was talking about the $650k+ market. Her source would be experience in the field of selling 10+ homes a month. She said you might not see the 10% difference in price yet because of seller concessions which do not show up on the final price.
Example would be lets say two similar homes are for sale. One closed in June for $700k. Now people across the street list their home for $700k in November. They end up selling the home for $675k. Only a 4% decrease for arguments sake. Not much difference on the surface when you compare them for MLS stats. But other factors may be involved such as seller pays a portion of closing costs and gives the buyer an allowance of $10k for upgrades. This was unheard of in the summer but is now becoming common place in the market in this price range.
Allowances and seller paid points do not reflect in the MLS data which can skew the numbers.

[ROZ]

define bubble bursting.. Correction to 5 to 8 % annual increase in housing vs the oil industry type increases housing became acustom, or California falling into the ocean ? :D

[WYRD]

Hopefully the market will hold strong until Jan. so I can list my house for sale :cool:

[Outnumbered]

She was talking about the $650k+ market. Her source would be experience in the field of selling 10+ homes a month. She said you might not see the 10% difference in price yet because of seller concessions which do not show up on the final price.
Example would be lets say two similar homes are for sale. One closed in June for $700k. Now people across the street list their home for $700k in November. They end up selling the home for $675k. Only a 4% decrease for arguments sake. Not much difference on the surface when you compare them for MLS stats. But other factors may be involved such as seller pays a portion of closing costs and gives the buyer an allowance of $10k for upgrades. This was unheard of in the summer but is now becoming common place in the market in this price range.
Allowances and seller paid points do not reflect in the MLS data which can skew the numbers.
MLS data is input by agents and allowances and concessions offered are nearly always on the table for all with access to see. The public record data is the data that will not show the concessions. I think you may be a little misinformed. Read the article I posted up above, I am certain this is where she got her stats. Be careful preaching doom and gloom if you can't quote stats to back it up. There is no 10% decline in prices, period. Agents talk out their ass sometimes and I would be sure to check up on any stats you hear from them.

[totenhosen]

MLS data is input by agents and allowances and concessions offered are nearly always on the table for all with access to see.
Since when does an agent input all the concessions that a seller is willing to give? Talk about a disservice to their client. Wouldn't that make negotiations meaningless?
The public record data is the data that will not show the concessions. I think you may be a little misinformed. Read the article I posted up above, I am certain this is where she got her stats. Be careful preaching doom and gloom if you can't quote stats to back it up. There is no 10% decline in prices, period. Agents talk out their ass sometimes and I would be sure to check up on any stats you hear from them.
Here are all the stats I need. http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
I am not as bearish as these people but somewhere in between.

[Jeanyus]

Last spring, when pricing a home in Northern Ca. you could take a comparable home that sold within 30 days, and add 10 %. Now you have to take the comparable home price from 30 days, and dont add to it.Last spring houses were taking on average, 28 days to sell now, they take 32 days.
Not much of a bubble burst, more like the bubble deflating a little.
Quote from Jeff Culbertson, 8/11/05, Chief Operating Officer, Western Region, & President of Coldwell Banker Residential, Sacramento/Tahoe, Ca. "Properties that are priced at "the last closed sale" appear to be getting a lot of activity in the $450-$750K price range. Below $450k is still hot. Above $750K is our market of challenge. Homes in this price range need to be priced and marketed aggressively. Exposure will bring qualified buyers, but the home needs to show well and be priced well. Our sellers need to understand that an unwise position to put themselves into is one where they follow the market, rather than lead. This doesn't mean that our sellers should under price their homes, it simply means that they should not attempt to "test the market"."

[FREIND OF AA AND TA]

Trust me ont this!! The bubble has not popped. The prices are just stablizing a tad and that could just be the holiday crap! I have closed 9 escrows this month and the phone is still ringing off the hook. There is no real signs of prices going down as a whole. Certain areas are up and some down. This is only my observation for Santa Clarita, Just north of LA.

[Outnumbered]

Since when does an agent input all the concessions that a seller is willing to give? Talk about a disservice to their client. Wouldn't that make negotiations meaningless?
No, it would not. If you have spent any time in the MLS when concessions are prevalent, you will see things like "seller is willing to help with closing costs" or "seller may carry back a second" or "seller will provide an allowance for new carpet" etc. The fact is that most lenders will not allow more than a 3% concession in a deal anyway so there is no 10% concession behind the scenes unless they are paying cash or with hard money, but then that scenario kind of defeats the purpose of the concession. So even assuming that every deal has a 3% concession that we supposedly do not know about, we are still not 10% down in price based on the stats and facts quoted in the article above. Here are all the stats I need. http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
I am not as bearish as these people but somewhere in between.
Doom and Gloomers, nuff said.

[Boatcop]

Spring and summer are the prime moving times. It always slows down in the late fall to end of winter. It may be the Holidays, or people just not wanting to brave the weather to house hunt or move this time of year. Any realtor will tell you that if you're buying, winter is the best time.
Watch what happens in the spring. I'm willing to bet that prices will be comparable, if not higher, than they've been over the past year.

[Outnumbered]

Spring and summer are the prime moving times. It always slows down in the late fall to end of winter. It may be the Holidays, or people just not wanting to brave the weather to house hunt or move this time of year. Any realtor will tell you that if you're buying, winter is the best time.
Watch what happens in the spring. I'm willing to bet that prices will be comparable, if not higher, than they've been over the past year.
Boatcop, this slowing is more than the typical seasonal that we have seen over the past several years. It is the biggest slow-down we have seen in years, but not a "pop" by any means. This quarter is more of a "normal" period for those of us in the business over 10 years.
Its just funny how all of the sudden its doom and gloom bubble popping time when we are not seeing 30% appreciation and 7 days on market average listing time.

[totenhosen]

No, it would not. If you have spent any time in the MLS when concessions are prevalent, you will see things like "seller is willing to help with closing costs" or "seller may carry back a second" or "seller will provide an allowance for new carpet" etc. .
Yes I am aware of that.
The fact is that most lenders will not allow more than a 3% concession in a deal anyway so there is no 10% concession behind the scenes unless they are paying cash or with hard money, but then that scenario kind of defeats the purpose of the concession. So even assuming that every deal has a 3% concession that we supposedly do not know about, we are still not 10% down in price based on the stats and facts quoted in the article above.
Again I am aware of that. You are nit-picking the numbers I gave and only using the ones for your arguments sake instead of the whole picture. Again I don't want to argue back and forth as it is all opinion at this point as to what will happen. Statistics and numbers can be skewed. Lereah has changed his tune/forecasts drastically over the last 2 months and is doing a little CYA.
Come spring time there won't be an excuses like seasonal adjustment etc.

[Outnumbered]

You are nit-picking the numbers I gave and only using the ones for your arguments sake instead of the whole picture. Nit-picking? I'm just quoting stats and they support what I see every day at work. Not sure what you are talking about by nit-picking.
There is no stat that shows a 10% decline in the market other than your guru agent's 10 houses a month. That is hardly a stat to hang your hat on. If you find a solid stat that supports a 10% decine in the SoCal market, post it up.

[Froggystyle]

I have mentioned this before, but fact...
My house appraised early this year for $815,000.
We just got it appraised again to consolidate a second and it appraised for $715,000 with no explanation.
Fortunately, we owe $540,000 so we should be OK.
I call that a correction. Or a bubble burst, or, or, or...
My house was "worth" $800,000+ earlier this year, and now they wouldn't fund that on a loan. Do the math...
Comps in my neighborhood have gone way down on average, with three solid realtors we have talked to stating that average time on market is over three months if aggressively priced, and hadn't closed a house over $750,000 in weeks.

[Outnumbered]

I have mentioned this before, but fact...
My house appraised early this year for $815,000.
We just got it appraised again to consolidate a second and it appraised for $715,000 with no explanation.
Fortunately, we owe $540,000 so we should be OK.
I call that a correction. Or a bubble burst, or, or, or...
My house was "worth" $800,000+ earlier this year, and now they wouldn't fund that on a loan. Do the math...
Froggy, unfortunately there are a lot of bone-head appraisers out there. In the same month a few months back I had my house appraised for $350k, $440k, and $550k by three different appraisers. That is just a joke. There is no excuse for this other than incompetence. I doubt your house has dropped $100K in that time period. I had to bitch and moan to get the job done right ($550k). BTW, a smaller house in my tract just closed for $575k. This just shows how focked up the guys were at $350 and $440, WTF?

[Froggystyle]

Froggy, unfortunately there are a lot of bone-head appraisers out there. In the same month a few months back I had my house appraised for $350k, $440k, and $550k by three different appraisers. That is just a joke. There is no excuse for this other than incompetence. I doubt your house has dropped $100K in that time period. I had to bitch and moan to get the job done right ($550k). BTW, a smaller house in my tract just closed for $575k. This just shows how focked up the guys were at $350 and $440, WTF?
Well, there isn't any comps in my neighborhood selling right now. Tough to compare.
And there is a pile of inventory boy...

[VEGASBABY]

I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.Also have her tell you she determined she was in the top 1% in the nation. Just curious! Supply and demand in our area (Las Vegas) awhile back there may have been 3,500 homes the market and now there are over 10 to 15,000 or more. You want to sell you need to be realistic with your price cause a buyer now has options!

[totenhosen]

Nit-picking? I'm just quoting stats and they support what I see every day at work. Not sure what you are talking about by nit-picking.
There is no stat that shows a 10% decline in the market other than your guru agent's 10 houses a month. That is hardly a stat to hang your hat on. If you find a solid stat that supports a 10% decine in the SoCal market, post it up.
Well you know that there is a 2-3 month lag before the stats show anything of significance. you also admitted yourself that the sales do not show seller concessions which like it or not are part of the whole picture.
I believe I also mentioned specifically the $650k+ market. last I looked the stats you posted were on the median home price. I would think that an agent with sales of over $20MM a year has a pretty good pulse on her local market.

[framer1]

What effect would a slow down in L.A. area have on Havasu real estate if any. Just curious what some of you pros have to say about it.

[Outnumbered]

Well you know that there is a 2-3 month lag before the stats show anything of significance. you also admitted yourself that the sales do not show seller concessions which like it or not are part of the whole picture.
I believe I also mentioned specifically the $650k+ market. last I looked the stats you posted were on the median home price. I would think that an agent with sales of over $20MM a year has a pretty good pulse on her local market.
The median in LA is over $550k and per the NAR, LA saw a 22% increase in the 3rd QTR:
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA $452,000 (3rd2004); $553,000 (3rd2005); 22.3% (Increase)
With these kind of numbers I don't see a 10% decline over $650k.
I am sure we will see worse numbers in the 4th QTR, I think we can all agree on that. But again, I highly doubt we will see the 10% price decline your agent said we already experienced. That is just BS from her or you/she mixed up VOLUME with PRICE.

[Outnumbered]

Well, there isn't any comps in my neighborhood selling right now. Tough to compare.
And there is a pile of inventory boy...
No doubt, inventory is growing and we are slowing way down. Once the peeps trying to bang it hard for a big profit are weeded out from the ones who really have to sell, you will see some of the "sellers on crack" take their homes off the market and ride it out. The ones that have to sell will reduce their prices to put them in line with the closed sales and likely be on the market for several months before they sell.

[soupersonic]

I find it amusing that all of the sudden when the big boom is over everyone is crying about the market falling out and prices drastically reduced. IMO the market has went back to normal and the reductions people are seeing is because the house was priced one way in a booming market and now its priced more realistically in a normal market. It just from a sellers market to a buyers market. It went from 20-30 % increases in a year to the normal 5-6 % increases. Here this summer there were only 6000 listings and 50,000 realtors, hence the "name your price" situation. Now it is back to the normal 27,000 listings

[Boatcop]

What effect would a slow down in L.A. area have on Havasu real estate if any. Just curious what some of you pros have to say about it.
Not a pro, but I can tell you from experience, that when the market goes down in Cal. it goes down out here, too.
When the housing prices in California are high, there's a lot of refi-ing going on, and people using that for vacation or second homes. IF (and this is a big if) the market tanks, people who got those sweet interest only loans, or 1-5 year fixed, or other creative financing, are going to be looking for quick cash. Another re-fi won't work, since in this scenario, the primary home is now worth less than the last re-fi, and they owe more than its appraised value.
So the easiest thing to do is unload the second home. Put enough people in this situation and home prices in resort areas will fall, along with the SoCal market.
A strong California economy might prevent the above scenario from occurring, but the economy generally follows homes sales and/or vice versa.
But, like the stock market, those who stay the course will make out. Even if values drop, it will only be on a temporary basis, Home prices will soon re-bound, and those who held on will be in good shape. Those who bailed at the first sign of a perceived slow-down will lose out.

[HM]

Think about this. When the market slows down, they call it a "buyer's market"
So, obviously, you want to be in buying mode at this time, not selling mode. The bubble to make big gains in a short time frame is the only thing popping.
Besides, we need the market to slow down, so the Dept. of Real Estate & Dept. of Corporations can catch up on compliance issues and shut down about 70% of the brokers out there, and a few lenders.

[Outnumbered]

Besides, we need the market to slow down, so the Dept. of Real Estate & Dept. of Corporations can catch up on compliance issues and shut down about 70% of the brokers out there, and a few lenders.
Now that is funny but true. Glad I'm not the only one that thinks this.

[NorCal Gameshow]

it doesn't really matter unless your cashing out and leaving the market...
another question, where did all the property tax dollars go with the last market boom?

[callbob4homes]

I find it amusing that all of the sudden when the big boom is over everyone is crying about the market falling out and prices drastically reduced. IMO the market has went back to normal and the reductions people are seeing is because the house was priced one way in a booming market and now its priced more realistically in a normal market. It just from a sellers market to a buyers market. It went from 20-30 % increases in a year to the normal 5-6 % increases. Here this summer there were only 6000 listings and 50,000 realtors, hence the "name your price" situation. Now it is back to the normal 27,000 listings
Doesn't get any simpler than this, boys and girls. Stop and think about this for a minute. There are just as many of you thinking the bubble burst, as there is thinking along these lines. Every "expert", goes on what the market is doing in their own little world. My little world is a whole different ballgame from the little world in say Chatsworth or Holtville Ca. Invest as you see fit and with what makes you comfortable. Just because the overinflated prices have come down to normal (if there is such a thing) doesn't mean the sky is falling. Sorry you can't make a 40% profit on a short term deal, but lifes a bitch ain't it? Get that 1 1/2 to 2% from the bank, no bubble there.

[4DAY4PLAY]

Froggy, unfortunately there are a lot of bone-head appraisers out there. In the same month a few months back I had my house appraised for $350k, $440k, and $550k by three different appraisers. That is just a joke. There is no excuse for this other than incompetence. I doubt your house has dropped $100K in that time period. I had to bitch and moan to get the job done right ($550k). BTW, a smaller house in my tract just closed for $575k. This just shows how focked up the guys were at $350 and $440, WTF?
Wow, you must have a huge house, on lots of land to be seeing prices like that in peoria, az........no offense, but even in so cal those are modest prices.

[bigq]

well what about the income ratio. Making 80k a year and no way you can even purchase a shack in SoCal. I think I read affordability is down to 14% in So Cal.
And USA Today reports on a new home price study."Even though the number of cities where home prices are "extremely overvalued" dipped slightly in the third quarter, the percentage of the U.S. housing market considered frothy and at risk for a price correction nudged higher, a study scheduled to be released today shows. 'The data suggest that the incidence of overvalued markets is becoming more concentrated,' says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City."
"For the second straight quarter, Naples, Fla., topped the list, with homes 84 percent overvalued. The rest of the top five: Merced, Calif., 76.7 percent; Salinas, Calif., 74.8 percent; Port St. Lucie, Fla., 72.2 percent; and Stockton, Calif., 72.0 percent. Newcomers to the 'at-risk' list include Phoenix, 34.8 percent overvalued; Pensacola, Fla., 33.2 percent; Orlando, 32.7 percent; and Honolulu, 31.3 percent."
"A surprising 41 of the 65 significantly overvalued markets were in California and Florida."

[Jyruiz]

well what about the income ratio. Making 80k a year and no way you can even purchase a shack in SoCal. I think I read affordability is down to 14% in So Cal.
Read that too, glad my house is payed for, and I didn't even refinace it to purchase my Havi house.

[SummitKarl]

No POP here only BOOM!!!!!!!!! I am exhausted :frown: , put out 4 houses last week, got 13 more (contracted) to do, and 9 ready to sign before the end of the year. not to mention 7 garage additions.... :squiggle: Shiat no X-Mas for me

[Newcastle]

No POP here only BOOM!!!!!!!!! I am exhausted :frown: , put out 4 houses last week, got 13 more (contracted) to do, and 9 ready to sign before the end of the year. not to mention 7 garage additions.... :squiggle: Shiat no X-Mas for me
With all the $$ you're probably making out there SK, somehow I don't feel all that sorry for u... :p

[shueman]

Not a pro, but I can tell you from experience, that when the market goes down in Cal. it goes down out here, too.
When the housing prices in California are high, there's a lot of refi-ing going on, and people using that for vacation or second homes. IF (and this is a big if) the market tanks, people who got those sweet interest only loans, or 1-5 year fixed, or other creative financing, are going to be looking for quick cash. Another re-fi won't work, since in this scenario, the primary home is now worth less than the last re-fi, and they owe more than its appraised value.
So the easiest thing to do is unload the second home. Put enough people in this situation and home prices in resort areas will fall, along with the SoCal market.
A strong California economy might prevent the above scenario from occurring, but the economy generally follows homes sales and/or vice versa.
But, like the stock market, those who stay the course will make out. Even if values drop, it will only be on a temporary basis, Home prices will soon re-bound, and those who held on will be in good shape. Those who bailed at the first sign of a perceived slow-down will lose out.
There's def. a bunch of inflated listings in Havasu....

[Outnumbered]

Wow, you must have a huge house, on lots of land to be seeing prices like that in peoria, az........no offense, but even in so cal those are modest prices.
Nope, 2004 semi-big tract home in a nice area with a 4-car garage pool, spa, etc. In my neighborhood, a newer huge house on a huge lot will run over $900k. North Peoria has gone off the hook along with many other areas in Phoenix. In a lot of neighborhoods prices are not too much lower than some areas in SoCal. We saw a solid 45% increase in value last year. If you read that article I posted up, Phoenix had the higest appreciation rate of all the metro areas.

[TOBTEK]

Trust me ont this!! The bubble has not popped. The prices are just stablizing a tad and that could just be the holiday crap! I have closed 9 escrows this month and the phone is still ringing off the hook. There is no real signs of prices going down as a whole. Certain areas are up and some down. This is only my observation for Santa Clarita, Just north of LA.
9...you are my idol. So that means your only selling the 30 to get a new F32 then right? :)

[FREIND OF AA AND TA]

9...you are my idol. So that means your only selling the 30 to get a new F32 then right? :)
Shiat!! I am still paying off the summer gas and beer bill!! Don't forget I only work sept-march!! J/k
I will have closed 12 by 12-20-05. Not to brag but dam I'm on fire!!!
I am saving to by secret sauce!
Yes I am loaded and damit I should brag!! I work hard and I deserve the 32!!

[Outnumbered]

Shiat!! I am still paying off the summer gas and beer bill!! Don't forget I only work sept-march!! J/k
I will have closed 12 by 12-20-05. Not to brag but dam I'm on fire!!!
I am saving to by secret sauce!
Yes I am loaded and damit I should brag!! I work hard and I deserve the 32!!
Good job. Lets take a mini-poll. How many of those 12 sellers gave a concession to the buyer in the form of a credit or allowance? My guess would be 1 or 2 max. I am very curious.

[steve d]

Anybody owe more than it's worth......Steve

[Flying Tiger]

Redondo Beach is still climbing.
The older homes along the vicinity of Juanita are being scraped for lot value,, which still is an emerging market.

[Mandelon]

So Cal foreclosures are coming back. I used to only do foreclosure rehab work. I mean 20 a month, as fast as we could do em. It dried up pretty much in 99, and I have seen maybe one or two since then. We've had two come back so far this month, all the bank reps I talk to say to get ready......
Those with solid jobs and who are smart with their money will be fine, but if you are too stretched, and one spouse loses a job......it can add up quick. Two or three months behind on payments, add in fees and expenses.......its suddenly a $20,000 nut to crack and not too many jobs pay those kind of signing bonuses......
A bust? I don't think so. The weak will be weeded out. The appreciation rate will drop and there will be a glut of condo conversions to market. It will take a while to absorb those, but there is only a few thousand of them so it shouldn't take all that long.

[steve d]

So Cal foreclosures are coming back. I used to only do foreclosure rehab work. I mean 20 a month, as fast as we could do em. It dried up pretty much in 99, and I have seen maybe one or two since then. We've had two come back so far this month, all the bank reps I talk to say to get ready......
Those with solid jobs and who are smart with their money will be fine, but if you are too stretched, and one spouse loses a job......it can add up quick. Two or three months behind on payments, add in fees and expenses.......its suddenly a $20,000 nut to crack and not too many jobs pay those kind of signing bonuses......
A bust? I don't think so. The weak will be weeded out. The appreciation rate will drop and there will be a glut of condo conversions to market. It will take a while to absorb those, but there is only a few thousand of them so it shouldn't take all that long.
Do you think the new law on bankruptcy will affect forclosures?

[bigq]

Thie spring will tell the story it seems, the traditional time to puchase. Lord knows they will have quite the inventory to pick from.
I still think the key is the income and rent rates. the "average"house price is way out of line with both of those.
Also at the end of the month i hear lenders are putting the brakes on teaser rates, neg amor loans and such.
Another factor is the rise in the home price itself. If the prices stop rising then noone will sell to purchase another, mostly because they can not afford it.

[RiverToysJas]

I know in my zip the housing market has not popped. Our values are still climbing slowly, they backslid just percent or two a few weeks ago, but overall are still going up a bit. I owe about 40% of the value & am not planning on selling anytime soon, so it's not a big deal to me either way, but I don't see a big drop coming in most of OC. If you want to live by the beach, you gotta pay, plain and simple. MANY houses in my tract are being remodeled, rebuilt completely, or just expanded a bit. It's happening literally on every street.
There's not a lot of new housing going in here (and what is going in I would never want to live in - too close together and much to small lots). Time will tell though, property goes up, and property goes down.....but then it goes further up.
Buy land, they aren't making it anymore!!! ;)
RTJas :D

[Havasu Cig]

Those in Interest Only loans are biting nails I'd bet.
I have been saying this for years. People that are leveraged to the max with ARM's and paying interest only. People were telling me I was stupid for fixing both my houses at 5%. We will see in the end who made the right choice. :)

[Havasu Cig]

I will also add that some of the prices they are asking in Havasu are crazy. We looked at some stuff that they want more per Sq.Ft. than they do here in San Diego. We looked at a custom out there being built on .40 acres with about 2600 Sq.Ft. of living space for 900k. That is crazy if you ask me. It should be interesting in the next few years.

[SCUBA STEVE]

Buy land, they aren't making it anymore!!! ;)
RTJas :D
LMFAO!!! :p
Our area is very very very slow now. This time last year probably up till August of this year, you had to hope to stumble across something that was not already under contract.Our current house in 7/04, had just fallen out of escrow so the seller was happy to see us come knocking. He was all bent when he came by not to long ago to learn we gained $80k in equity, when he only gained $20k in equity from 1999-2004.

[totenhosen]

Besides, we need the market to slow down, so the Dept. of Real Estate & Dept. of Corporations can catch up on compliance issues and shut down about 70% of the brokers out there, and a few lenders.
I think we can all agree on that. Too much fraud going on and people in the business that just shouldn't be in it.
I think we just bump this thread up again come April.

[My Man's Sportin' Wood]

Buy land, they aren't making it anymore!!!
I am right there with ya, but when ya buy land ya get the indians. It is becoming a royal pain in the A$$ owning land. I am just about over the whole I have land thing. Looks like a dip in the economy might presents some deals that would make me unload it.
Owning land in So.California is like having your head in a vice nowadays.
SW

[2Driver]

I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.
John I think he meant the price of Ultras not houses :) :)

[Outnumbered]

John I think he meant the price of Ultras not houses :) :)
That hurt :cry: :)

[HOSS]

Popped deflated and desintegrated down here. Can`t even find the string.

[Boatcop]

Still going strong here in Parker. This one just went into Escrow.
Dave Plunkett Realty (http://www.coloradoriverrealty.com/propview.php?view=403)
This is a couple of blocks from me. IN THE TOWN OF PARKER, not on the River.
No yard to speak of, a block from the Jr. High and High School, nothing special about the neighborhood.
I'm pretty sure that this is the most that any home in the City limits has sold for. Looks like my property value just went up, again.

[Jyruiz]

A house like that would easily go for a mil down here.

[shueman]

Still going strong here in Parker. This one just went into Escrow.
Dave Plunkett Realty (http://www.coloradoriverrealty.com/propview.php?view=403)
This is a couple of blocks from me. IN THE TOWN OF PARKER, not on the River.
No yard to speak of, a block from the Jr. High and High School, nothing special about the neighborhood.
I'm pretty sure that this is the most that any home in the City limits has sold for. Looks like my property value just went up, again.
What a dive.... :D
That home may be TOO NICE for the comp market... :hammer2:
Good luck to the sellers...helps all like you said...

[FREIND OF AA AND TA]

Good job. Lets take a mini-poll. How many of those 12 sellers gave a concession to the buyer in the form of a credit or allowance? My guess would be 1 or 2 max. I am very curious.
2 Max, Buyer credits are still rare here.

[Outnumbered]

2 Max, Buyer credits are still rare here.
Thanks. That is what I am finding too and I work most of SoCal except for San Diego. No doubt it is slowing a little but not a "pop" by any stretch.

[FHI-prez]

The rise and fall of housing markets is based solely on public perception. If people think the market will decline, it will. If they think it will remain strong or grow (within reason) it will. We saw an unprecedented growth in the last few years which will undoubtedly stabilize. The "creative" financing bolstered this boom and public opinion helped as well. The cold hard truth of the matter is that housing can NOT continue to rise like it has because people have not seen an income increase to support it. The utility price increases will only add to the mix.
Let's face it. Years and years ago, the average family was a single bread winner and a stay at home parent, usually the mother. One income was enough to put an average roof over your head. Then, in the following years, dual income was enough to put an average roof over your head. Then "creative financing" coupled with the dual income became the norm. People are getting more and more extended to own an average home. How can an upstart family own a home nowdays? I can't imagine being fresh out of college with a wife and 2.2 kids and buying a home now. Not to mention a single mom or dad. Invest in large apartment or condo companies if you can, they will be the wave of the near future. OR have some money ready to buy up one of the thousands of houses that will be forclosed on in the next 5-10 years.
Our enomomy is quickly moving further into a binary system. Rich and poor. The rich will make millions off the "average" income families that just can't keep up. Half or more of the middle income folks will gradually move to the poor end. The near future will show that the younger generation will live at their parents house longer and longer, only then moving into a rental situation longer than in years past.
How can we continue raising housing costs when household income doesn't rise accordingly? Dual income is almost a necessity now, when in years past it wasn't. We can't have more than one spouse (thank god!), so dual income is going to be the limiting factor.
What any one community or neighborhood is doing means precisely dick. The average income compared to the price of an average house (nationwide) means everything. If housing goes up without incomes following suit then there is a limit to the markets increase. I believe we have come very close to that limit. If our economy remains reletively strong, then there won't be a huge burst in the bubble. If our economy craps the bed, the average homeowner that is dependent on 2 incomes and still living month to month is screwed.
My $2.36
Nick

[FHI-prez]

People were telling me I was stupid for paying my house off earlier this year, they were saying to parlay my cash into other properties. Now I'm just saving my cash and getting ready to buy when the time is right :D
It's not stupid, it's safe. Any "how to make money" book will tell you to always use as much house money as you can. It's the cheapest money you can get, and you can use other peoples money to make more (assuming interest rates are good).
You could make more money with equity funds, but you won't have any risk with a paid off house. Making a crapload of money always has a risk. But to call you stupid for paying off your house tends to better describe the person making the remark.
Nick

[RIPPINGNOLEGSKROKER]

I use the Trader Mags as a barometer. Boats, buggies, choppers, toyhaulers and pushers. People are selling to upgrade right now. When it becomes more of a fire sale we are on the other side of the curve. I still have a hard time grasping how people are paying their property taxes let alone their toys. I hate to be a doomsdayer but I have no idea how this monster can keep feeding itself. All we do is consume, nothing we consume is made here, the world owns our debt, our borders are wide open to anyone, and all our government does is point fingers at each other. I hope it is recession and not depression. For 7 years I have been hearing about this cliff on the horizon, like the mountainclimber on the Price is Right. I hope the growth can continue, all ships rise with the tide, right. Until sombodies Yacht drops anchor on your row boat.

[riverroyal]

West Coast:
Check out Bressie Ranch in Carlsbad (north San Diego) where average reduction is $60,000.
And check out La Costa Greens right next door, recent price reductions of $100,000 to $150,000.
East Coast:
"Boston-area homeowners trying to sell their houses are sharply reducing asking prices, in some cases, by $100,000 or more, in response to the sudden slowdown in the real estate market. The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts has dropped 7 percent in the past two months, to $349,000 for sales that closed in October."
Oh and oil is $60+ again and natural gas is going nutz $15+
I live between Bressi ranch and La costa greens.Only houses above 700k have declined here.Last weekend my wife was working at a "phase" release on her project,14 homes were available,10 sold in the 1st hour at 500k range,these are attached homes.So the expensive stuff is slowing,the homes in the 400 to 500 range are doing good.One thing you didnt mention about bressi ranch and La costa greens are the prop taxes,close to 2%.Spend 700k and it will cost 14000 a year in taxes!That is hurting the sales in those areas,morgages arent scaring people,it the taxes in those area that are turning people away

[totenhosen]

I hope the growth can continue, all ships rise with the tide, right. Until sombodies Yacht drops anchor on your row boat.
And when the tide goes out we'll see just how many people have been swimming naked.

[SummitKarl]

People were telling me I was stupid for paying my house off earlier this year, they were saying to parlay my cash into other properties. Now I'm just saving my cash and getting ready to buy when the time is right :D
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! dead on Floatin, Congrats you are one of the learn-id few, That's is exactly how you do it.
Congrats on ACTUALLY OWNING your home....way cool!!!!!!!!!!

[riverroyal]

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! dead on Floatin, Congrats you are one of the learn-id few, That's is exactly how you do it.
Congrats on ACTUALLY OWNING your home....way cool!!!!!!!!!!
you maybe dead,I say live for today,but what do I know

[SummitKarl]

you maybe dead,I say live for today,but what do I know
you maybe right,I felt that way after my brush with death http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/520/2734crash64-med.jpg but I know one thing for sure now, I sleep alot better everynight knowing I can write the check anytime!!!!! that makes me debt free.... :)

[riverroyal]

you maybe right,I felt that way after my brush with death http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/520/2734crash64-med.jpg but I know one thing for sure now, I sleep alot better everynight knowing I can write the check anytime!!!!! that makes me debt free.... :)
of deaths can happen anytime,Ive had one of those year,Im not hocking my house for toys,but Im not waiting til 60 to have fun

[SummitKarl]

of deaths can happen anytime,Ive had one of those year,Im not hocking my house for toys,but Im not waiting til 60 to have fun
your still living in So Cal right :) need I say more :cry:

[riverroyal]

your still living in So Cal right :) need I say more :cry:
My moms going nuts in havasu.Need anything from here?They are heading here this weekend

[SummitKarl]

My moms going nuts in havasu.Need anything from here?They are heading here this weekend
yea
one of everything from Harbor Freight tools :rolleyes:
A Prime Rib Sandwich from Tip Top meats :)
and 5 orders of Hot wings (atomic) from "The Grand Street grill" ie.. The "G" spot :220v:
That should do it :rollside:
Tell you parents to get involved, with either my car club or Havasu Classics, this will cure what Aile's your mom......seen it happen a doz. times, the women get busy............lets work both sides of it, your Mom will thank us later :)
opps forgot a large Pepperoni , mushroom and sausage Pizza from Bruno's

[riverroyal]

I'm far from dead... I'm Livin' the High Life....I just have chosen to pay off my house. I need writeoffs so I keep small mortgages on 3 rental properties, other than that I don't owe shiat to shineola :)
I move so much,paying off a morgage in socal just wont happen,but it would be nice

[Tequila-John]

AZ has softend up a tag. OH WELL

[riverroyal]

yea
one of everything from Harbor Freight tools :rolleyes:
A Prime Rib Sandwich from Tip Top meats :)
and 5 orders of Hot wings (atomic) from "The Grand Street grill" ie.. The "G" spot :220v:
That should do it :rollside:
Tell you parents to get involved, with either my car club or Havasu Classics, this will cure what Aile's your mom......seen it happen a doz. times, the women get busy............lets work both sides of it, your Mom will thank us later :)
opps forgot a large Pepperoni , mushroom and sausage Pizza from Bruno's
maybe for dinner.My dad just got his enclosed trailer last week for long trips.I will talk with him friday about getting out.Im surprised he hasnt contacted you yet..

[HocusPocus]

my neighbors house went up for sale 4 months ago, we were tempted to buy but didn't. it was bought buy a group of koreans and then put up for rent.. a month later it was rented and i guess the guy never paid because after a few months he moved out in the middle of the night, next morning 6 koreans were banging on his door. so now they put the place up for sale for $100k over what they paid just 4 months ago. they must be crazy because there is no way it will appraise for that high when it was at the top when they bought it. just means my street will be a little quieter for a while longer. :)

[riverroyal]

my neighbors house went up for sale 4 months ago, we were tempted to buy but didn't. it was bought buy a group of koreans and then put up for rent.. a month later it was rented and i guess the guy never paid because after a few months he moved out in the middle of the night, next morning 6 koreans were banging on his door. so now they put the place up for sale for $100k over what they paid just 4 months ago. they must be crazy because there is no way it will appraise for that high when it was at the top when they bought it. just means my street will be a little quieter for a while longer. :)
about what can happen with market slowing,people wont sell now,they will rent.Then you end up with Ahole neighbors with crap yard