Home sales

[framer1]

It seems like home sales are slowing up on the central coast...Just curious how other areas are holding up. Lot of tract builders are shutting down for a while. Trying to get rid of inventory.

[caroftheweek]

owner of our framing company just got back from a meeting with KB Home and they are halting all new starts until they can get the inventory under control.
we have been dreading this and now it looks like it has finally come.

[OutCole'd]

Sales are dead here in Vegas.

[THOR]

Sales are slowing down a little in Huntington Beach, but prices are still insane.

[Not So Fast]

Likewise in Havasu, the prices are ridiculous!! NSF

[NOTALENT]

Hopefully it keeps slowing and prices start dropping...im just about ready to buy... :rollside:

[lakewake]

Resale prices in south Orange County seem to be leveling off a bit. They just kept going to insane levels. I have noticed fewer homes for sale and more people doing big remodels...second story additions,great room additions etc. Lots of landscape and pool renovations as well. I think people are staying put and fixing instead of moving up .

[framer1]

owner of our framing company just got back from a meeting with KB Home and they are halting all new starts until they can get the inventory under control.
we have been dreading this and now it looks like it has finally come.
A company I frame for has had 15 slabs ready to snap for two months and won't let me start. Definitely throwing my schedule off. People are starting to get nervous. Lots that were sold at 250 grand are back on the market at 190s. That's not a good sign. Need to get prices down a little.

[hack job]

sales have slowed in long beach and prices are coming down( its about damn time). i would guess its going to get a lot worse before it gets better. most of the houses around me two years ago would be on the market for like 5 -20 days before being sold. now your looking at a couple of months.

[AirtimeLavey]

Yep, the "adjustment" is in full effect in the IE. We're coming into the busy season, so we'll see how that goes.

[al cole'holic]

...the winter season was definitely longer than previous years, that's for sure..as far as slowing up...??...waking up is more like it. In the last week I have seen 5 listings fly off the shelf that had been idle through some time..yes, sellers seem to have to do more to entice a buyer (couple more repairs then usual, etc) but no price reductions!
I don't know how many times I have said it here but I'll say it again...anyone who wants to buy a property, do it!! Do not wait for a drop or a foreclosure, you will not find it. I will say this again in December....

[phebus]

After just selling my home (took 76 days), I feel very lucky to have done so now. The market is definately very slow, and soft. The inventory is increasing at an alarming rate, and buyers now have the upper hand, unlike a couple of years ago when if you found something you wanted, you'd better write paper right on their kitchen table, because if you left you lost it.
I bought a new home, but the smart tning to do, probably would have been to rent while the market continues to correct.

[jbtrailerjim]

There are tons of houses on the market around were I live. They are not selling as fast and I'm starting to see a lot of the for sale signs with "Price Reduced" signs on them. Prices are still insane though.
Houses in So. Cal. are overpriced IMO and I think California is running out of people that can afford these overpriced homes.

[Not So Fast]

After just selling my home (took 76 days), I feel very lucky to have done so now. The market is definately very slow, and soft. The inventory is increasing at an alarming rate, and buyers now have the upper hand, unlike a couple of years ago when if you found something you wanted, you'd better write paper right on their kitchen table, because if you left you lost it.
I bought a new home, but the smart tning to do, probably would have been to rent while the market continues to correct.
Congrats on the sale Rick, I know how frustrating it can be to just sit on your house. When you moving, did you buy the house you were telling me about?? NSF

[phebus]

Thanks Bobby, we should be moving right after the 4th of July. We bought a really nice house from a friend of mine up on El Dorado.
We love the neighborhood your in, and that would have been our first choice, but the houses available right now we either didn't like, or were out of our budget.
We can't wait to move, and already have started packing. Hard to sort through all the crap in my garage after 11 years here.

[al cole'holic]

There are tons of houses on the market around were I live. They are not selling as fast and I'm starting to see a lot of the for sale signs with "Price Reduced" signs on them. Prices are still insane though.
Houses in So. Cal. are overpriced IMO and I think California is running out of people that can afford these overpriced homes.
...this is another point. Those people who should have bought a home 5 years ago, for example, well the homes are now double in price...?...so now, those people waiting for the market to drop or foreclosures to come up or whatever your logic is, what is going to be a drop in price enough for you to buy?? For example, $50k off a home that 5 years ago was $400k but is now $800k but "dropped" to $750k...is that enough for you to buy..??...even if it dropped $100k to $700k....do you really believe that this market will crash to a level it was at before or that a bank will sell a foreclosure at half the price..?..do you know how many millionaires will be in line with cash money on the table ahead of you if there is a foreclosure market, there isn't a chance in hell.
California will never run out of people wanting to live here.

[2Driver]

Article in the AZ republic a couple weeks ago spoke to slowing and that most major developers were laying off sales people, in house mortgage staff etc. As they put it they were laying off people they had brought on due to large home buying upswing over the past 24 months.
The question is: When is a good time to step back in an buy so you are not buying at the top of the slide? Interest rates are due to go up again which are going to add to pressure. Some with interest only loans could start walking.

[cdog]

Some good articles
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Regional+Market+Commentary/Global+Credit+Perspectives/2006/Kiesel_For_Sale_06+2005.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/06/AR2006060600624.html
http://www.vvdailypress.com/2006/114957720034936.html
http://www.tracypress.com/local/2006-06-05-Builders.php
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/05/pf/affluent_attitudes/index.htm

[cdog]

Article in the AZ republic a couple weeks ago spoke to slowing and that most major developers were laying off sales people, in house mortgage staff etc. As they put it they were laying off people they had brought on due to large home buying upswing over the past 24 months.
The question is: When is a good time to step back in an buy so you are not buying at the top of the slide? Interest rates are due to go up again which are going to add to pressure. Some with interest only loans could start walking.
Wanna see something scary....
UPDATED Weekly (usually)
Numbers in RED indicate high inventory
DateInventory Tracker 08/01/05 12/30/05 06/06/06 Population Ratio (Listing Per Person) Previous All time high Inventory 2005 Population
08/01/05 05/10/06
Vegas 13,285 14,368 21,319 1/135 1/89 20,217 -June 1995 1.8 Million
Riverside County 11,456 14,772 23,247 1/157 1/82 * ?
1.8 Million
Sacramento Metro (Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, & Yolo Counties) 8,885 10,079 15,179 1/225 1/146 13,507-April 1992 2 Million
Phoenix (Maricopa & Pinal Counties) 11,920 27,455 47,906 1/318 1/84 ? 3.8 Million
San Diego County 14,229 14,591 21,479 1/210 1/150 19,250-July 1995 3 Million
Orange County 6,725 7,583 15,388 1/460 1/226 ? 3.1 Million
San Jose/Santa Clara County 3,188 2,638 4,340 1/564 1/463 ? 1.8 million
Los Angeles County 16,970 25,589 38,959 1/589 1/284 ? 10 Million
Seattle(king & Snohomesh Counties) 5,221 8,609 10,766 1/463 1/241 2.42 Million

[Speedin' Ian]

Homes are definately sitting on the market a lot longer, In my profession I provide advertising for agents throughout the western U.S. and aside from a few areas, most agents agree the market is changing, however they would never tell their buyer or seller that :) ! I can't imagine it tacking a huge dip, but it is definately changing, still high interest rates and slightly lower prices will essentially cacnel each other out.

[socalmofo]

...this is another point. Those people who should have bought a home 5 years ago, for example, well the homes are now double in price...?...so now, those people waiting for the market to drop or foreclosures to come up or whatever your logic is, what is going to be a drop in price enough for you to buy?? For example, $50k off a home that 5 years ago was $400k but is now $800k but "dropped" to $750k...is that enough for you to buy..??...even if it dropped $100k to $700k....do you really believe that this market will crash to a level it was at before or that a bank will sell a foreclosure at half the price..?..do you know how many millionaires will be in line with cash money on the table ahead of you if there is a foreclosure market, there isn't a chance in hell.
California will never run out of people wanting to live here.
Wow, Couldn't have said it better myself! Have you noticed most of the guys that say they are waiting for foreclosures are always doing exactly that....WAITING!
Sorry to burst the bubble but the days of a 3/2 home is so cal for under 300k look to be far from reality.

[phebus]

Have you noticed most of the guys that say they are waiting for foreclosures are always doing exactly that....WAITING!
I guess that's why the saying is, "Buy and wait, don't wait to buy!!"
Those that have sat on the sidelines, have definately lost out. I don't care what kind of dip we might have, it will never return to the prices of yesteryear.

[2Driver]

Biggest price retreat (22%) in So Cal reportedly happened in the early 90. (Just after I sold in SD:) Clearly those that rode it out have made out huge time. Those that bought in 89 and had to sell around 91 took a bath.
I guess it depends on how long you are going to stay in it if you are going to buy right now. Over time buying always makes sense.
So what do I do? I was looking at triple-wide in Parker with some friends. 4 years ago it would have been $350, right now it's listed for $750. Good buy or not, assuming I hold it for 5 years?

[framer1]

I guess that's why the saying is, "Buy and wait, don't wait to buy!!"
Those that have sat on the sidelines, have definately lost out. I don't care what kind of dip we might have, it will never return to the prices of yesteryear.
This is true...Don't count on buying for what somebody did 2 or 3 years ago. Not going to happen. You have to figure you never lose or make anything untill you sell. I'm thinking we will get a little dip but that will be it. Material and labor prices are here to stay. With the price of gasoline nobody can afford a cut in their income.

[cdog]

Biggest price retreat in So Cal reportedly happened in the early 90. (Just after I sold in SD:) Clearly those that rode it out have made out huge time
I guess it depends on how long you are going to stay in it if you are going to buy right now. Over time buying always makes sense.
So what do I do? I was looking at triple-wide in Parker with some friends. 4 years ago it would have been $350, right now it's listed for $750. Good buy or not, assuming I hold it for 5 years?
750k for a triplewide? Pay attention to all the homes listed in Vegas and Phx. When people can no longer cash out of socal they will stay put. Hence- no longer buy over priced river homes and relocate to a McMansion in the desert. With every new generation comes a new breed of suckers that know it all. History will repeat. Pay attention to the fundamentals. They are all wrong right now. It will take a price reduction in order to make it right again. As equity dries up so does liquidity. That's when the prices will drop. Socal droped 22% in the 90's. That figure is based on median price's and averages. The figure is more like 22%-50% depending on areas. I can show you shit holes in santa ana that are listed for the same price as a nice home in anaheim hills or yorba linda. Guess which one will drop more.

[EmpirE231]

I'm hoping the prices take a decent plunge...... but if not...I'll keep saving til I can afford what I want! if you look at it... it's crazy!! here in riverside.... 5000 sqft custome homes used to sell for 800k about 4-5 years ago... now basic tract homes go for that! my parents bought their place in 2000 brand new for 190..... now the market price is about 650-700 ?? now you gotta think where's the logic in that... for the market to last?? doctors used to buy these homes for 800k .... now people that are managers at supermarkets and so on are buying them with joint income and crative finance... (interest only, 40 yr fixed, etc) ... people are maxed out!! and especialy for the people with the adjustable rate mortgages... when those rates shift and their payment goes up 2k .... it's alot easier for them to walk considering most people bought the house with 0 down?? they'll just burn their credit!! what's new? I've been watching the MLS ... houses sitting on the market for ALOT longer... the market is saturaed.... sellers are dropping prices and willing to bargain again.... it has shifted over to a buyers market now.... and the prices will be bound to start dropping. I remember 1 year ago... when you made an offer on a house... there were already 8 other offers.... and most people getting 20-30 more than what they were asking! ... its not like that now.... we'll see how it goes!! :220v:

[2Driver]

750k for a triplewide? Pay attention to all the homes listed in Vegas and Phx. When people can no longer cash out of socal they will stay put. Hence- no longer buy over priced river homes and relocate to a McMansion in the desert. With every new generation comes a new breed of suckers that know it all. History will repeat. Pay attention to the fundamentals. They are all wrong right now. It will take a price reduction in order to make it right again. As equity dries up so does liquidity. That's when the prices will
That's what the little guy on my right shoulder is saying. However, the little guy on my left shoulder is saying go to the river, go to the river! :rollside: It's really $750K for the dirt there just happens to be a nice triplewide on it. :D and it's not waterfront!

[phebus]

The big price drop in so cal will never repeat. The big drop was due to the aerospace layoff's, and So Cal was dependent on the aerospace industry. Today's economy is so much more diverse.

[cdog]

The big price drop in so cal will never repeat. The big drop was due to the aerospace layoff's, and So Cal was dependent on the aerospace industry. Today's economy is so much more diverse.
Just wait and see what happens to oc's financial industry when a recession comes. History always repeats.....

[Freak]

Diverse yes but depandent on one thing. Energy....
As we all should know all booms in history have been due to cheap energy.
What if the days of cheap energy are over? Just too many people using more and more every day....
What if what we are seeing now is the tip of an exponential curve that will throw more than just the energy sector?
There will be shortages ----- noticing any lately?? I've read in other posts -- people shortages - material shortages.....
There will political and social unrest ---- Yeah, notice any lately?
The alternatives will still be on the drawing board.
What if we all but the very wealthy are going to have to live a more modest lifestyle?
Total sees 2020 oil output peak, urges less demand:
By Tom Bergin
AMSTERDAM, June 7 (Reuters) - France's Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) estimates global oil production will peak around 2020 if output growth continues at current levels and has advised governments to cool demand to avoid a supply crunch, its chief executive said.
"The capacity of raising (oil) production is a real challenge ... if we stay with this type of production growth our impression is that peak production could be reached around 2020," Thierry Desmarest told the World Gas Conference in Amsterdam on Wednesday.
If demand growth was cut to 1 percent from the nearly 2 percent experienced in recent years, the point of peak output could be postponed by 10 years, the French oil major's CEO added.
"We say to governments, it's urgent to take action plans to reduce oil demand growth," Desmarest said.
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-06-07T114812Z_01_L07762836_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-TOTAL-PEAKOIL.XML&rpc=66
Greenspan at Congress Today: Energy costs may stunt economy:
US households are struggling with rising gasoline prices
Oil supply and demand buffer too small to absorb shutdown of even small part of the world output
Warns protectionism could undermine market flexibility, increase US vulnerability
Current oil prices should lower worrisome dependence on petroleum over time -How Alan? By reducing demand -- ie more people walking?
Recent data indicate economy may finally be experiencing some impact from costly oil
Corn ethanol can play only limited role in easing dependence on oil
Cellulosic ethanol, clean coal and unclear power could help wean US off petroleum
Shortfalls in world crude oil capacity are worrisome
Difficult to judge how firm recent OPEC expansion plans are?
China very likely to be dominant force behind oi demand until car market saturated
Rising oil prices has been very effective tool in compressing US demand
If oil price rise is sufficiently smooth, that's the best of all possible contingencies
Doesn't think oil price needs to go much higher to curb US consumption as needed
Hard to tell how much impact oil shock would have because large part is psychological
If US were to get big oil price shock, could see significant economic contraction
Until recently, was hard to find big impact of oil price rise on US economic activity"
Fuel prices are top business concern:
"FUEL prices are starting to hurt business profits. The latest D&B Business Expectations Survey shows sales and profit growth expectations for the September quarter are negative for the first time since 1991. Actual sales, employment and profit are already shrinking.
D&B Australasia chief executive Christine Christian said the findings highlighted the pressures fuel prices were putting on the economy, which would affect corporate planning.
"We would expect these disappointments to have a strong impact on business executives' expectations for the start of the new financial year," Ms Christian said."
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/fuel-prices-are-top-business-concern/2006/06/05/1149359676273.html

[callbob4homes]

well.............................here we go again on my favorite subject. I really like that line, "buy and wait, don't wait to buy". But any of you big ballers that are cashing out over in Kawlifornia that want a big house, 4160 sq ft 4/3/3 with pool and corian etc etc. I got one for 500K listed now. seller job transfer out of state. 3 years old. I can't remember seeing this kind of price in a looonnngggg time.

[framer1]

well.............................here we go again on my favorite subject. I really like that line, "buy and wait, don't wait to buy". But any of you big ballers that are cashing out over in Kawlifornia that want a big house, 4160 sq ft 4/3/3 with pool and corian etc etc. I got one for 500K listed now. seller job transfer out of state. 3 years old. I can't remember seeing this kind of price in a looonnngggg time.
What area? That sounds really cheap :cool: Pictures :idea:

[Tom Slick]

I'm hoping the prices take a decent plunge...... but if not...I'll keep saving til I can afford what I want! if you look at it... it's crazy!! here in riverside.... 5000 sqft custome homes used to sell for 800k about 4-5 years ago... now basic tract homes go for that! my parents bought their place in 2000 brand new for 190..... now the market price is about 650-700 ?? now you gotta think where's the logic in that... for the market to last?? doctors used to buy these homes for 800k .... now people that are managers at supermarkets and so on are buying them with joint income and crative finance... (interest only, 40 yr fixed, etc) ... people are maxed out!! and especialy for the people with the adjustable rate mortgages... when those rates shift and their payment goes up 2k .... it's alot easier for them to walk considering most people bought the house with 0 down?? they'll just burn their credit!! what's new? I've been watching the MLS ... houses sitting on the market for ALOT longer... the market is saturaed.... sellers are dropping prices and willing to bargain again.... it has shifted over to a buyers market now.... and the prices will be bound to start dropping. I remember 1 year ago... when you made an offer on a house... there were already 8 other offers.... and most people getting 20-30 more than what they were asking! ... its not like that now.... we'll see how it goes!! :220v:
I couldn't agree more...The only people that will tell you that the market is fine and that we won't see much of a dip are either real estate agents or people that are deathly affraid of the adjustment because they'll loose big time. Obviously home builders see what's happening and are prepairing for it. Look at the current mortgage industry, as it has completely fallen on its face. Mortgage companies are dropping like flys and lay offs are a daily occurance.
Between the last 5 years of absolutely unrealistic increases in real estate values, increasing interest rates, higher cost of living, oil/energy prices, lack of people that can even afford a mortgage at todays prices, etc., etc. we are definitely in for an adjustment. Like some of you have said, life comes to us in cycles or waves, and we just got done riding one mother of a wave, but unfortunately that wave is starting to crash and unfortunately it's going to take a lot of people with it if they weren't careful with their finances over the last few years. Good luck.

[callbob4homes]

pics on my website. virtual tour was done today so should be up in a couple of days. It is in Johnson Ranch in a one way in and out semi exclusive part. Large homes, golf course year membership included. This area is booming but has seen reductions because of commute times. Getting better and waiting will only see increases as this area grows. The golf course is outstanding. www.johnsonranchgolfclub.com/. smokin deal for this big of home. need any more pics let me know and I will email. thanks
Bob

[Not So Fast]

Thanks Bobby, we should be moving right after the 4th of July. We bought a really nice house from a friend of mine up on El Dorado.
We love the neighborhood your in, and that would have been our first choice, but the houses available right now we either didn't like, or were out of our budget.
We can't wait to move, and already have started packing. Hard to sort through all the crap in my garage after 11 years here.
I would have liked having you down here Rick but the place you are buying sounds pretty tits to me (Big garage) As for sorting out all the stuff, I told my wifey that we have to use the 5 year rule. If you haven't used it or SEEN it in the last 5 years then it's got to go, period. And we were there for almost 25 years so had lots of stuff. Get a preascription for Xanax, you'll need it

[framer1]

I couldn't agree more...The only people that will tell you that the market is fine and that we won't see much of a dip are either real estate agents or people that are deathly affraid of the adjustment because they'll loose big time. Obviously home builders see what's happening and are prepairing for it. Look at the current mortgage industry, as it has completely fallen on its face. Mortgage companies are dropping like flys and lay offs are a daily occurance.
Between the last 5 years of absolutely unrealistic increases in real estate values, increasing interest rates, higher cost of living, oil/energy prices, lack of people that can even afford a mortgage at todays prices, etc., etc. we are definitely in for an adjustment. Like some of you have said, life comes to us in cycles or waves, and we just got done riding one mother of a wave, but unfortunately that wave is starting to crash and unfortunately it's going to take a lot of people with it if they weren't careful with their finances over the last few years. Good luck.
Sorry to say, but I think you are right on. Those who tried to make it rich quick are going to be in a world of hurt.

[callbob4homes]

I couldn't agree more...The only people that will tell you that the market is fine and that we won't see much of a dip are either real estate agents or people that are deathly affraid of the adjustment because they'll loose big time. Obviously home builders see what's happening and are prepairing for it. Look at the current mortgage industry, as it has completely fallen on its face. Mortgage companies are dropping like flys and lay offs are a daily occurance.
Between the last 5 years of absolutely unrealistic increases in real estate values, increasing interest rates, higher cost of living, oil/energy prices, lack of people that can even afford a mortgage at todays prices, etc., etc. we are definitely in for an adjustment. Like some of you have said, life comes to us in cycles or waves, and we just got done riding one mother of a wave, but unfortunately that wave is starting to crash and unfortunately it's going to take a lot of people with it if they weren't careful with their finances over the last few years. Good luck.
not all of us have the white glasses on with the rose tinted lenses. :p
I happen to like to see the market adjust, last year (at least over here) was an anamoly as far as I am concerned. I have to say though, driven in large parts by Cal investors! Prices are coming back to reality and that is a good thing. No longer do sellers dictate the price. Sellers can set the price but the buyer will set the value. Having said that (I hate it when people say that) when was the last time you saw prices go back to when you wanted to buy, but waited for the market to come to you? Real estate will always be a good investment if treated as an investment not a get rich scheme. Those people are opportunists, not investors. I still hold to what another poster said, "if you are waiting for the crash and foreclosures, better get in line now because the banks and finance companies have buyers already if that happens. These folks are true investors, not market speculators. There is a difference. :rollside:

[phebus]

Are there any boating lakes near Queen Creek, AZ?

[doesitfloat?]

I sure am tempted to go back about 3, 6, or 9 months and read all of those posts about how "land is scarce and California will only appreciate...indefinitely". Others said emphatically that there wouldn't EVER be a correction.
I remember thinking (and saying) that they were living in a dream world. There are only sooo many people that can afford million dollar (or near) homes, period. And many (if not most) of the people who bought homes WAY OVER THEIR FINANCIAL HEADS because prices were going to climb forever are sh!tting their pants right now.
Can you imagine the stress of watching your measly $100,000 equity disappearing as your house is losing value WHILE you're "adjustable rate" is going up $300-$500 a month. Not to mention that big, fat equity line you pulled to buy that bitchen boat or new pool or Hummer w/ spinners(or all 3!)
Let's face it...many people (including many here on HB) are in this situation. It's scary and I don't wish it on anyone...but that's what happens when a family that makes $90,000/year buys a $750,000 house on the assumption that it will "always go up"

[Tom Slick]

not all of us have the white glasses on with the rose tinted lenses. :p
I happen to like to see the market adjust, last year (at least over here) was an anamoly as far as I am concerned. I have to say though, driven in large parts by Cal investors! Prices are coming back to reality and that is a good thing. No longer do sellers dictate the price. Sellers can set the price but the buyer will set the value. Having said that (I hate it when people say that) when was the last time you saw prices go back to when you wanted to buy, but waited for the market to come to you? Real estate will always be a good investment if treated as an investment not a get rich scheme. Those people are opportunists, not investors. I still hold to what another poster said, "if you are waiting for the crash and foreclosures, better get in line now because the banks and finance companies have buyers already if that happens. These folks are true investors, not market speculators. There is a difference. :rollside:
True that...all of the big dogs with fat bank roles are just sitting on the sidelines waiting to gobble up the foreclosures, thus not leaving much left for the little guy that was waitng out the market in hopes of picking up a good deal. Unfortunately some people may not have been in the position the last few years to jump on board the real eastate market, but maybe they are now. I wouldn't recommend that these people buy just yet, as the market is just beginning to adjust. Like someone stated before, the market may adjust 20% all the way to 50% in some areas, which by todays prices could be pretty significant dollar amounts when this happens. I don't think I would want to invest in a home right know, knowing that I could be upside down in it between 20-50% in the next few years. Sure if you plan on staying in the place for the unforseeable future, then go ahead and buy, as the market will always come back. And no, home prices will never ever drop to the prices they were at 5 years ago, but again even a 20% drop is a big one on a $700K home.

[callbob4homes]

Are there any boating lakes near Queen Creek, AZ?
Saquaro, Roosevelt, Apache Lake, Pleasant over on the Westjordy side. Prolly about the same drive as or shorter than the trip to Havasu for alot of peeps. Kind of how much a drive is too much kind of thing I guess.

[77charger]

I work in waterproofing showerpans and the last 6 months we have slowed a bit.It use to be a full crew working saturdays every weekend doing tract homes.Now we might have 1 or 2 who get to work if it is there.The new tracts are gettin smaller in phases too.As for remodels the work is there but not like it was before i can tell that the money is not being thrown around like it was.Seeing more jobs were less work is being done vs tear the whole bathroom out and redo to just the floor and shower tile.
I got lucky and bought my house just before the out of control price increases came.Paid 190k just like cycles i do think the home values will drop quite a bit from what they are now or were.adj aprs and easy finance loans are going to get alot in trouble.Cost of living aint cheap anymore.And dont forget that 800k house you bought when it goes to say 400k well the taxes dont go down!

[callbob4homes]

I sure am tempted to go back about 3, 6, or 9 months and read all of those posts about how "land is scarce and California will only appreciate...indefinitely". Others said emphatically that there wouldn't EVER be a correction.
I remember thinking (and saying) that they were living in a dream world. There are only sooo many people that can afford million dollar (or near) homes, period. And many (if not most) of the people who bought homes WAY OVER THEIR FINANCIAL HEADS because prices were going to climb forever are sh!tting their pants right now.
Can you imagine the stress of watching your measly $100,000 equity disappearing as your house is losing value WHILE you're "adjustable rate" is going up $300-$500 a month. Not to mention that big, fat equity line you pulled to buy that bitchen boat or new pool or Hummer w/ spinners(or all 3!)
Let's face it...many people (including many here on HB) are in this situation. It's scary and I don't wish it on anyone...but that's what happens when a family that makes $90,000/year buys a $750,000 house on the assumption that it will "always go up"
Yep, there will always be those, the figures might vary, but the "I want it NOW" generation is here for now. Shit, starting to sound all like my dad and shit. :cry:

[badbrad]

it took two months to sell but were happy with the outcome. we had to meet half way what the buyer wanted but were still ok. now we are more wooried about apliances than anything. i want to go with lg but the wife wants kenmore. i just spent 5k on teh bedroom so i think i have a say in the w/d. its all good. the pool comes first then the boat.......

[phebus]

So, all theese "Big Dogs" on the sideline waiting to pick up a good deal when prices drop. How do they tell when the time is right to buy?
If they hve the cash, that means they watched the last boom pass them by, and I bet they watch prices drop, and don't pull the trigger once again.
Professional talkers, and watchers. I call BS on most of them, and their "I told you so" attitude.

[Tom Slick]

I sure am tempted to go back about 3, 6, or 9 months and read all of those posts about how "land is scarce and California will only appreciate...indefinitely". Others said emphatically that there wouldn't EVER be a correction.
I remember thinking (and saying) that they were living in a dream world. There are only sooo many people that can afford million dollar (or near) homes, period. And many (if not most) of the people who bought homes WAY OVER THEIR FINANCIAL HEADS because prices were going to climb forever are sh!tting their pants right now.
Can you imagine the stress of watching your measly $100,000 equity disappearing as your house is losing value WHILE you're "adjustable rate" is going up $300-$500 a month. Not to mention that big, fat equity line you pulled to buy that bitchen boat or new pool or Hummer w/ spinners(or all 3!)
Let's face it...many people (including many here on HB) are in this situation. It's scary and I don't wish it on anyone...but that's what happens when a family that makes $90,000/year buys a $750,000 house on the assumption that it will "always go up"
You got that right, and don't forget the poor guy that got suckered into signing on the dotted line by some crooked mortgage lender that got him into that $750K house for just peanuts a month, not knowing that he signed up for a neg. am. adjustable loan that he hasn't even been paying the total interest payment on each month. I've already seen this happen to people and it really sucks. I'm guessing that there will be some sweet deals on some very nice boats, buggy's and RV's in the next couple of years too. Sorry, guess I just kind of repeated what you just said, but you are soooooooooo right.

[shueman]

When the market recedes, the first impact is on secondary/vacation homes and other lifestyle extras. There's alot of very overpriced real estate between Laughlin and Parker right now, totally dependent on what happens in the big metro areas, like SoCal.

[callbob4homes]

[QUOTE=Tom Slick]You got that right, and don't forget the poor guy that got suckered into signing on the dotted line [QUOTE]
P.T. Barnum got it right didn't he? Not standing up for crooked mortgage guys or crooked agents at all, don't do business that way. But at some point don't you have to take responsibility for your own actions? If you got the stones to buy a 750K home, shouldn't you have the smarts to do it right? Can't always blame the other guy can you?

[THOR]

Can you imagine the stress of watching your measly $100,000 equity disappearing as your house is losing value WHILE you're "adjustable rate" is going up $300-$500 a month. Not to mention that big, fat equity line you pulled to buy that bitchen boat or new pool or Hummer w/ spinners(or all 3!)
I laugh at this every weekend at Havasu. Every Saturday I am there I see these 22 year old kids with fat DCB's pulling with an Escalade on 22's. I wonder how they can afford all this stuff. Not everyone can make 300k per year. You are already seeing big, expensive boats, trucks and houses up for sale. There will be more and I will be in line to pick them up for cheap when these guys are forced to walk away with nothing.

[Flying Tiger]

USA Today said 'Vegas and Florida will be the first markets to take a signifcant price fall, and they claim they'll be the biggest fall nationwide.
I honestly can't understand 'Vegas's high prices.
DAMFINO,, What's everyones elses take?

[Tom Slick]

[QUOTE=Tom Slick]You got that right, and don't forget the poor guy that got suckered into signing on the dotted line [QUOTE]
P.T. Barnum got it right didn't he? Not standing up for crooked mortgage guys or crooked agents at all, don't do business that way. But at some point don't you have to take responsibility for your own actions? If you got the stones to buy a 750K home, shouldn't you have the smarts to do it right? Can't always blame the other guy can you?
I agree with you to a point, as I for one try to know what I'm signing up for before I pull the trigger, but some people simply rely on the fact that they hope that the person signing them up has their better interests in mind and aren't trying to take advantage of them. Unfortunately the world we live in is full of ignorent people and they get taken advantage of by people that just don't give a dam except for closing a deal. It's sad but true and our current market is full of these home owners that are starting to find themselves in a world of hurt financialy. You are right though and the guilt does fall on both parties, it's just a shame that unless some people have the common sense needed to understand their finance, they can and will get the shaft.
P.S. I've read alot of your posts in the past and you seem like a very stand up kind if guy. :D

[doesitfloat?]

You got that right, and don't forget the poor guy that got suckered into signing on the dotted line by some crooked mortgage lender that got him into that $750K house for just peanuts a month, not knowing that he signed up for a neg. am. adjustable loan that he hasn't even been paying the total interest payment on each month. I've already seen this happen to people and it really sucks. I'm guessing that there will be some sweet deals on some very nice boats, buggy's and RV's in the next couple of years too. Sorry, guess I just kind of repeated what you just said, but you are soooooooooo right.
A couple that we are very close to ALMOST got pinched by that very scenario. They wanted to buy in our neighborhood but weren't sure if they could swing it. Met w/ a broker, all good news, and they called us and said, "we got a great deal...it's even less than our current payment!" After closer inspection the next day, they were quoted a monthly payment on an "option ARM" and, of course, the monthly payment was like you said, a portion of each payment was being tacked back on to the back end of the loan!!!! Their principle would have increased by like $30,000 as time went on. When she called the broker, the broker said, "Oh, I must have forgotten to tell you that." Can you believe that sh!t? That's friggen criminal in my book.

[2Driver]

A friend of my buddy in Carlsbad picks up homes about to go into into forecloser. He indicated it's picking up. He said, " it's easy to find them, I just follow the H2's."

[Tom Slick]

A friend of my buddy in Carlsbad picks up homes about to go into into forecloser. He indicated it's picking up. He said, " it's easy to find them, I just follow the H2's."
LMAO...that was a good one, but so true. :D

[CBadDad]

Don't forget that those of us in a holding pattern (waiting to buy) are in the drivers seat. I am renting a bitchen 4br/3ba with a nice view for $2300/month. Couldn't touch anything like that in this neighborhood if I was buying it, even after dropping $150K down (proceeds for getting bought out of my house after a divorce in '04).
So I wait. You talk about the big ballers waiting for the forclosures. Where were they in the early '90's? Whatever.
True energy cost are gonna cause inflation, which in turn will lead to higher interest rates that will force people to lose their homes (and businesses), but at the same time it will cause the monthly payment to continue to rise although the value decreases. Monthly payments are the bottom line and no one knows for sure what will happen, but I will watch from the sidelines while I wait for the right home in the right nieghborhood for the right monthly payment...It will happen.

[Not So Fast]

When the market recedes, the first impact is on secondary/vacation homes and other lifestyle extras. There's alot of very overpriced real estate between Laughlin and Parker right now, totally dependent on what happens in the big metro areas, like SoCal.
This is true, very true and I've been saying it about Havasu for a couple of years now. Just talked with a realtor friend that told me there were like 1100 listings here now and very, very slow. My neighnor took his house off the market after a year with not one offer. Will there be a price drop, who knows, but I would think so. NSF

[callbob4homes]

Unfortunately, given some of the scenarios being hashed about here, there are some downfalls to the energy/gas price/interest rate thingy. (as I see it)
If in fact, there gets to be all these properties hit foreclosure, the problem will be..#1, it will probably take a bucket load of cash to put "most" back into liveable condition. (most foreclosures I have seen get stripped and trashed)
#2, not sure what it would do to property value if in fact it gets as wide spread as some believe. (the sky is falling?) The only reason I could see to buy foreclosures (or any home for that matter) is the investment dealio. Is there going to be appreciation again? Sure there will be, why not just wait it out if you don't have to sell. You waiting to buy? Sure, just wait until the appreciation goes up again. :220v: (and the interest rates!) Lots of ways to beat this horse to death. Bottom line is you do what is right for you and get sound financial advice before signing anything. IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE............................I have some Nigerean real estate I can make you a smokin deal on, it was part of my Nigo lottery winners settlement and the government money from some other third world country I can't remember.
and next time one of you wants to send one of those guys on tv money to "Make Money in Real Estate Without Spending a Dime"? Send me the cash instead (no checks, food stamps or cc) and I will tell you how it is done. :rollside:
Tom, thanks for the props, I try

[Freak]

Unfortunately, given some of the scenarios being hashed about here, there are some downfalls to the energy/gas price/interest rate thingy. (as I see it)
If in fact, there gets to be all these properties hit foreclosure, the problem will be..#1, it will probably take a bucket load of cash to put "most" back into liveable condition. (most foreclosures I have seen get stripped and trashed)
#2, not sure what it would do to property value if in fact it gets as wide spread as some believe. (the sky is falling?) The only reason I could see to buy foreclosures (or any home for that matter) is the investment dealio. Is there going to be appreciation again? Sure there will be, why not just wait it out if you don't have to sell. You waiting to buy? Sure, just wait until the appreciation goes up again. :220v: (and the interest rates!) Lots of ways to beat this horse to death. Bottom line is you do what is right for you and get sound financial advice before signing anything. IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE............................I have some Nigerean real estate I can make you a smokin deal on, it was part of my Nigo lottery winners settlement and the government money from some other third world country I can't remember.
and next time one of you wants to send one of those guys on tv money to "Make Money in Real Estate Without Spending a Dime"? Send me the cash instead (no checks, food stamps or cc) and I will tell you how it is done. :rollside:
Tom, thanks for the props, I try
LOL....nice one.
Funny what Mr. G. is saying now that he is out of office and quite lucid yesterday.
"The energy abundance on which this nation was built is over," Greenspan said in his first congressional appearance since departing the Fed in late January.
While he said the world economy had largely shrugged off sharp oil price gains so far, he said the immunity of U.S. consumers may be running out.
The Fed is backed in a corner. They have to raise rates to keep foreign investment in our debt but it kills the ecomony.
What do I think...things will slow way down and not pick up pace again.
Certain policies implemented in the very near term could help that transition and help manage that contraction instead of a free fall, but I am not optomistic on the whole. I think there will be winners and losers and the latter will outnumber the former
How long can this keep going? Well, demand destruction will keep going until people change their lifestyle built on driving*, consuming and accumulating debt to one built on walking, saving and paying-off debt. Call it the flipside of economic growth 'J'. Economic contraction 'n' if you prefer graphs?
Boy people are gonna be pissed.
Unless some aliens throw us a free energy bone. :)
Got your skis cause we are on the back side of the slope now....
A picture is worth a thousand words.
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/500/1286world-supply.jpg

[callbob4homes]

and just for food for thought...............a broker that I know and respect over in this area told me yesterday that one of his agents has an investor that is buying 200 new spec homes and paying cash. They must all be new builds, incentives included and no restrictions. They have half of them signed up already. It can be done, just not onesy twoesy deals. But again, this is a true investor, not an opportunitist. Love to have that one in my pocket.

[Sportin' Wood]

My 0.2
Will it fall on its face? Who really knows. What I predict is that folks that leveraged the family home for the down payment on toys may suffer. I don't see mass repo's as the banks have learned from the last recession and now are offering the 40-50 year morgage to the people that will need a morgage to bail them out of the intrest only adj. nightmare they got into.
Working in the building industry for 16 years has taught me about cycles, in fact I have been waiting for this day for the last 8 years.
Every large builder in So.Ca. Has had a meeting with their subs or sent out a letter telling them that they will lower the contract price on exsiting projects or lose the right to bid in the future. I had one good builder come right out and tell all his subs, That if we can not find a cheaper price we will not develop. My competition has said they can not lower prices. I know this to be true because material costs are going through the roof as well as labor.
They have grown fat and lazy. It is has been easier to raise prices 3% every phase then see how they can cut cost and improve profit. I am a small hungry fish in a big pond. I'm betting 8 years of sacrifice on taking down a couple old sharks. My team is ready to fight.
So what will happen?
The boomers, will retire. Who will fill the jobs? I do not know the numbers but, a very wise mentor of mine has told me that there is going to be tons of opprotunity in the coming years. Boomers will need special housing and Medical care. If you are in the medical field you are golden. Assisted living and ADA rentals are a safe bet in the coming years. Some people are going to suffer big time , but remember it will rebound. Ca. was the last to fall in the 90's and the first to rebound. Phoenix IMO is going to get hit hard. Biggest gains could be the biggest fall. Ca. has not been the biggest gain in a while so I think its gonna get soft but not fall down. You just gotta be able to ride the wave and be ready when the next boom hits. There may not be a huge dip in housing cost but those who have cash set aside will be able to hook some great deals on everything from property to toy's.
Non the less exciting times for guys who where able to resist the urge to cash out the house for a drink of the coolaid. That temptation was hard to resist.
2 cents from a guy who drives a nearly 30 year old boat!

[locogringo]

...the winter season was definitely longer than previous years, that's for sure..as far as slowing up...??...waking up is more like it. In the last week I have seen 5 listings fly off the shelf that had been idle through some time..yes, sellers seem to have to do more to entice a buyer (couple more repairs then usual, etc) but no price reductions!
I don't know how many times I have said it here but I'll say it again...anyone who wants to buy a property, do it!! Do not wait for a drop or a foreclosure, you will not find it. I will say this again in December....
ummmm, yea, sure.
Keep putting your head in the hole to not see the obvious. Foreclosures are already up ALOT and it WILL only get better (or worse depending on how you look at it)

[locogringo]

...this is another point. Those people who should have bought a home 5 years ago, for example, well the homes are now double in price...?...so now, those people waiting for the market to drop or foreclosures to come up or whatever your logic is, what is going to be a drop in price enough for you to buy?? For example, $50k off a home that 5 years ago was $400k but is now $800k but "dropped" to $750k...is that enough for you to buy..??...even if it dropped $100k to $700k....do you really believe that this market will crash to a level it was at before or that a bank will sell a foreclosure at half the price..?..do you know how many millionaires will be in line with cash money on the table ahead of you if there is a foreclosure market, there isn't a chance in hell.
California will never run out of people wanting to live here.
again, not picking on you cole (cause I like ya) but yes, banks will discount and even sell at half off; and I have the proof.
San Diego County has over 35,000 homes on the active MLS as of now and 32% of them are vacant homes. WHat does that tell you?

[framer1]

It's funny, when I started this thread I said this company I frame for had 15 slabs on the ground they didn't want to start... I just got a call they want to start in a week. Funny how things turn out. Now i'm in a panic to get some other jobs finished up to I can start. Just can't win :rolleyes: You think it's turn around already :D

[canuck1]

Are prices going to fall.....who cares. The most important thing with property investment has always been location. Never seen beach front or other prime locations fall to any major degree. You buy a shithole you have a shithole

[cdog]

again, not picking on you cole (cause I like ya) but yes, banks will discount and even sell at half off; and I have the proof.
San Diego County has over 35,000 homes on the active MLS as of now and 32% of them are vacant homes. WHat does that tell you?
http://www.gotforeclosure.net/
Is that David Spade on your website?

[locogringo]

http://www.gotforeclosure.net/
Is that David Spade on your website?
:D :D lol, it looks like him huh? But, no, it sure isn't cause I'd hate to pay his fee. Besides, I'm not sure how well that would go over anyway being that he is a comedian and all... lol

[ThongMagnet]

Are there any boating lakes near Queen Creek, AZ?
4 within in 1 hr and 6 within 1.5 hours.
---------------------
Roosevelt
Apache
Canyon
Saguaro
---------------------
Bartlett
Pleasant
Horseshoe (not really a boating lake)
------------------------
Havasu
Mohave
Mead
Powell
-----------------------
Stuff is selling in my area (northeast Phoenix), but all our lots are large (10,000-18,000 sq ft). Older neighborhoods with large lots are selling in Phoenix. No one wants to commute 1-2 hours a day to downtown phoenix. I get downtown in 25 minitues during rush hour, and 15 all other times. Airport takes 30 minitues.

[lalhc]

Looks like the Las Vegas and Phoeix markets are not predicted to do so well in the near future. I just found this article on the internet.
Bubble watch: 10 cities where prices will deflate
From Las Vegas to Edison, N.J., these bubble busters are facing everything from a lack of new building and job loss, to price appreciation that simply can't be maintained.
By Pat Curry, Bankrate.com
© Peter Gridley/Getty Images
* 10 cities where prices will rise
* 10 cities that will top out
* On Bankrate.com: Buying a home sight unseen
* On Bankrate.com: First-time home buyers' guide to taxes
Las Vegas: What goes up must come down. Fortune lists Las Vegas dead last in its list of 100 metro markets for housing appreciation in the next two years, predicting a two-year combined decrease in housing values of nearly 13%. Local Market Monitor reported a 33% increase in appreciation between 2003 and 2004, and then a 14% increase by the third quarter of 2005, evidence that prices have begun to cool.
"Las Vegas is a very interesting market," Winzer says. "A lot of people moved in, but construction has kept up with the pace. For a long time until recently, I didn't consider it an overpriced market. I don't think the price increases will last. There's really not an inability to produce new homes out there if there is a demand for it."
Sacramento, Calif.: We're not quite sure what Sacramento ever did to anyone, but it showed up on just about everyone's list of has-been markets. Winzer's Local Home Value Ratings rates the market as 59% overvalued and Burns Housing Cycle Barometer also lists it as overpriced.
"Sacramento, we think, has topped out," says Gollis of The Concord Group. "There is just so much (housing construction) in the pipeline. It's a steady-as-she goes market and has always had consistent growth, but we think the land market has gotten ahead of itself."
Phoenix: The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and Phoenix is the largest housing market in the country in terms of new construction. It's been running at 65,000 new units per year, with housing appreciation increasing at rates of nearly 30% per year.
"You can't sustain 30% increases a year for very long," Winzer says. "Of all the 100 markets we review, we think if you're an investor in Phoenix, you should sell, because vacancy rates are already pretty high." Gollis says his firm has been studying the market carefully and doesn't like what it sees. "It's had an incredibly unusual amount of growth," he says. "The land market has accelerated dramatically and the lot price as percentage of the home price has gone up significantly. We have some concerns about going long in Phoenix."
Boston: This one is in Winzer's backyard, his firm is based in Wellesley, Mass., so he sees what is happening there every day.
"Until about a year ago, homes would go on sale and be gone in a week," he says. "Now they're sitting on the market for a year." He doesn't see the prices dropping rapidly here -- or in any market, for that matter -- because while real estate prices escalate rapidly, they drop slowly.
"In markets that are well-overpriced, prices don't really fall because people just won't sell," he says. "The adjustment mechanism is skewed by people's emotions getting involved. People will grit their teeth and hang on as long as they can to get the price they want."
They might not be able to hang on for long. Burns ranks Boston fourth on his list of markets likely looking at a bubble; Winzer's analysis indicates the market is 33% overvalued.
Los Angeles: The City of Angels has been described as the poster child for how a lack of new housing near employment centers can hurt an economy. Affordable housing has been an issue in the market for years. It's ranked as one of the least affordable places in the country to live, with housing prices consuming 91% of income, according to statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The median price of an existing single-family home was $568,000 at the end of 2005, the National Association of Realtors reports. Plus, job growth is virtually flat. Together, it's cause for real estate market consultant Gollis to predict that the prices for California coastal markets are topping out in single-family homes. Fortune predicts a drop-off of nearly 8% in housing prices in the next two years, putting it in 95th out of 100 markets for growth.
Naples, Fla.: At 72%, Naples is No. 2 on Local Market Monitor's list of overvalued markets in the country (Santa Barbara-Santa Maria, Calif., is No. 1 at 86% overvalued). In actual pricing, it outpaces other Florida markets by a good $100,000 margin. Plus, there is an abundance of more affordably priced options for buyers within a short driving distance. It is no understatement that entire cities are being built nearby. "The markets that are the most overvalued are the ones at greatest risk of a substantial correction," Winzer says. "Naples is at the top of that."
Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Fla.: Rapid, dramatic price increases over the past two years -- and an extraordinary amount of new products being built in the condo market -- is the reason many real estate market analysts think this market just can't sustain much more in terms of price increases. The market probably won't decline, they say, because the region remains attractive to South American and European buyers, but there just isn't sufficient demand to absorb the entire available inventory. Plus, according to NAR research, affordability is an issue in the market, calling the home price-to-income ratio "unfavorable."
Edison and Newark, N.J.: As far as the real estate analysts are concerned, these two cities have pretty big targets on them for a decline in appreciation. John Burns Real Estate Consulting ranks Edison seventh -- ahead of Los Angeles, Miami and Washington, D.C. -- as a market facing a potential housing bubble. It gives Newark an F on its local market grading scale, attributable largely to the loss of several thousand jobs and the highest housing-cost-to-income percentage in the state's metro markets. Fortune predicts a very modest 1.2% gain in housing appreciation this year for Edison that would be wiped out in 2007 by a loss of 2.9%. The situation is similar in Newark, where Fortune suggests a 1.5% increase this year will be canceled out by a 1.8% loss the following year.
Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y.: Otherwise known as Long Island, this market is No. 2 in the country on real estate consultant John Burns' list of locations facing a potential housing bubble. (Modesto, Calif., has the top spot.) Similarly, Fortune predicts a loss of about 6% in housing values over the next two years.

[al cole'holic]

Don't forget that those of us in a holding pattern (waiting to buy) are in the drivers seat. I am renting a bitchen 4br/3ba with a nice view for $2300/month. Couldn't touch anything like that in this neighborhood if I was buying it, even after dropping $150K down (proceeds for getting bought out of my house after a divorce in '04).
So I wait. You talk about the big ballers waiting for the forclosures. Where were they in the early '90's? Whatever.
True energy cost are gonna cause inflation, which in turn will lead to higher interest rates that will force people to lose their homes (and businesses), but at the same time it will cause the monthly payment to continue to rise although the value decreases. Monthly payments are the bottom line and no one knows for sure what will happen, but I will watch from the sidelines while I wait for the right home in the right nieghborhood for the right monthly payment...It will happen.
..this is exactly the kind of person I preach "BUY SOMETHING" to everyday. You would rather throw away 28k in a year to rent a "bitchen" house than settle on something to make that $ work..?? You like the house you're in, great but buy a small condo in the meantime...offset that wasted $, or better yet get into a condo that your rent money would cover on a mortgage..at least that money wouldn't be completely gone. $28k for the year, $56k for 2 years, $84k in 3 years....you just blew the divorce proceeds paying your landlords mortgage.
I take no offense to any of these discussions, and I would hope no one else does...
framer1, get ready for a good year bud... :)

[al cole'holic]

ummmm, yea, sure.
Keep putting your head in the hole to not see the obvious. Foreclosures are already up ALOT and it WILL only get better (or worse depending on how you look at it)
...lemme guess, you are in the business of getting someone who is in foreclosure to sign off to you and have them walk away :)

[ThongMagnet]

I just randomly pulled off a listing in the 85032 area code in phoenix of a $400K house. Phoenix is very affordable if your coming from any big city. We will always feed off of California's high home prices. There are many much less (below $300K).
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060624852&gate=excite1

[al cole'holic]

I just randomly pulled off a listing in the 85032 area code in phoenix of a $400K house. Phoenix is very affordable if your coming from any big city. We will always feed off of California's high home prices. There are many much less (below $300K).
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060624852&gate=excite1
...if I could, I would move to Scottsdale real quick like :)

[TheLurker]

lalhc,
I posted the same article on the Havasu house price thread before I read this thread. I don’t usually believe a lot of those articles but from bankrate .com those people are usually level headed.

[lalhc]

Ya, I saw yours on the other thread. I believe there will be leveling off and some decline in the markets that have seen above average home value increases, but I doubt that we'll see the great burst of the bubble.

[CBadDad]

..this is exactly the kind of person I preach "BUY SOMETHING" to everyday. You would rather throw away 28k in a year to rent a "bitchen" house than settle on something to make that $ work..?? You like the house you're in, great but buy a small condo in the meantime...offset that wasted $, or better yet get into a condo that your rent money would cover on a mortgage..at least that money wouldn't be completely gone. $28k for the year, $56k for 2 years, $84k in 3 years....you just blew the divorce proceeds paying your landlords mortgage.
I take no offense to any of these discussions, and I would hope no one else does...
framer1, get ready for a good year bud... :)
First off, I have 50% custody of three kids (not to mention I need a garage), so an "affordable" condo is out of the question. Carlsbad real estate is expensive.
Second, your theory is fine as long as the market continues to go up, but all indicators are that it has peaked and a correction is inevitable. How much of a correction is debateable, but I am not willing to lose my down payment while living in a shack that I can barely afford (which happened to many homebuyers in the late 80's). Instead that money is invested in a conservative stock (again I can't afford to lose it) while I ride this out, in comfort I might add...
Third, I don't want to invest my money in a rental, as I will need it when time comes to buy the house I will live in. Hate to have it tied up in a property that has lost value and now I can't get out from under it. That would suck hard!!!
Forth, I'm not losing my proceeds because I'm paying rent. Even if I had bought something that was affordable, my mortgage would have been closer to $4K, mostly towards interest, so instead of making money for my landlord, I'd being making money for a mortgage company. Doesn't make much difference to me. Oh ya, and the tax benefit. No way I'm gonna see a $15K savings over what I'm paying now (roughly the difference between rent and mortgage).
Lastly, when I got out of the Navy in '86 the housing market was doing the same thing it has been doing for the last few years. I couldn't imagine how I was ever gonna be able to buy a house. Well it corrected itself, because houses are just like any thing else and rely on the basic laws of supply and demmand. Once people stop buying them (because of high interest rates coupled with high asking prices) and the deep pocket investors stop throwing money into refi's, the market will correctand the average family will be able to buy into the market again.
Anyways, that's my take on how things are going and my game plan. Only time will tell if I'm a genious or an idiot...

[Tom Slick]

First off, I have 50% custody of three kids (not to mention I need a garage), so an "affordable" condo is out of the question. Carlsbad real estate is expensive.
Second, your theory is fine as long as the market continues to go up, but all indicators are that it has peaked and a correction is inevitable. How much of a correction is debateable, but I am not willing to lose my down payment while living in a shack that I can barely afford (which happened to many homebuyers in the late 80's). Instead that money is invested in a conservative stock (again I can't afford to lose it) while I ride this out, in comfort I might add...
Third, I don't want to invest my money in a rental, as I will need it when time comes to buy the house I will live in. Hate to have it tied up in a property that has lost value and now I can't get out from under it. That would suck hard!!!
Forth, I'm not losing my proceeds because I'm paying rent. Even if I had bought something that was affordable, my mortgage would have been closer to $4K, mostly towards interest, so instead of making money for my landlord, I'd being making money for a mortgage company. Doesn't make much difference to me. Oh ya, and the tax benefit. No way I'm gonna see a $15K savings over what I'm paying now (roughly the difference between rent and mortgage).
Lastly, when I got out of the Navy in '86 the housing market was doing the same thing it has been doing for the last few years. I couldn't imagine how I was ever gonna be able to buy a house. Well it corrected itself, because houses are just like any thing else and rely on the basic laws of supply and demmand. Once people stop buying them (because of high interest rates coupled with high asking prices) and the deep pocket investors stop throwing money into refi's, the market will correctand the average family will be able to buy into the market again.
Anyways, that's my take on how things are going and my game plan. Only time will tell if I'm a genious or an idiot...
Couldn't have said it better myself...good post! :)

[cdog]

A friend of mine runs a family AC and heating biz that does work for builders and track homes. He was out in Menifee last week and spoke to the super to get into some homes to fix some problems. 35% of the homes in the tract are vacant bought by investors. Local tax rate on these 500k homes is 1.8%.
OUCH!!! The shits gonna hit the fan. :boxed:

[framer1]

framer1, get ready for a good year bud... :)[/QUOTE]
I hope your right.... Only time will tell :)

[barbigrl]

I sell title insurance and we are definitly feeling the effects of the slowdown!! It is taking much longer for agents to sell homes, a lot are going into expireds. I am definitly getting more Re-fi business then re-sale business. We are scrambeling to widen our customer base!! They are telling us it should level off this suummer.....however it will turn into a buyers market!

[shueman]

[QUOTE=cdog]...35% of the homes are vacant bought by investors...QUOTE]
Sounds like a desert city by a lake... :idea: :D

[Flying Tiger]

My wife and I earn megabux so it's easy for us,,, - I don't see how you kids do it,, but my hats off to you for putting your priorities in the right place and buying a home, and making it work.

[locogringo]

...lemme guess, you are in the business of getting someone who is in foreclosure to sign off to you and have them walk away :)
basically but with a twist, one the higher-end homes that have some equity in them, we negotiate a fair price and I also pay to have their credit restored since that is truly what matters most to these higher end homeowners. If you offered them 100k in equity when I get cashed out of the home or offer to pay for their credit to be back at 750 or higher in under a year, they almost always take the second. Bear in mind (cause I am sure someone will chime in here...) this isn't a soft delete on their record like everyone else does, it is PERMANENTLY removed.
Anywho, since Monday...
Orange County, LA County, Ventura County, San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties have had right under 700 new NOD (notice of defaults) filed. You can't deny what is happening.

[CBadDad]

Anywho, since Monday...
Orange County, LA County, Ventura County, San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties have had right under 700 new NOD (notice of defaults) filed. You can't deny what is happening.
Is that high? If so, how much higher than last month and last year?
Just curious.

[MagicMtnDan]

Bear in mind (cause I am sure someone will chime in here...) this isn't a soft delete on their record like everyone else does, it is PERMANENTLY removed.
And HOW do you get that done???

[Wmc]

Resale prices in south Orange County seem to be leveling off a bit. They just kept going to insane levels. I have noticed fewer homes for sale and more people doing big remodels...second story additions,great room additions etc. Lots of landscape and pool renovations as well. I think people are staying put and fixing instead of moving up .
That is exactly what we did instead of moving up bigger, so we didn't have to pay the higher property taxes..... Plus we really like our neighborhood.
This is a newsletter that my realtor friends sends out monthly. Gives you a run down on the market.
HOME SALES SAG DESPITE PRICE CUTS… This has been an interesting month for anyone watching this real estate market, which has definitely transitioned to a new pace. Now that sales have slowed significantly for 6 months in a row, we can officially call the market changed. The Federal Reserve Chairman himself declared we are, “in for a soft landing.” There will be no bubble bursting, but rather an adjustment, as this newsletter has been forecasting for months. There were 3,276 total sales in April. (The most current numbers that are available.) Although this number is off 28% from a year ago April, to be fair, we must remember that ’05 was a banner year. One thing is sure; sellers are facing more competition and must be accurately priced to keep their home from sitting on the market. And that is exactly what’s happening. Don’t let the median price increase of 11% fool you into thinking prices are surging. What’s really happening is that properties that were overpriced, got reduced, and sold for less than the original list price, but because of the high number of sales over $700,000 the median price went up.
THIS MARKET IS RETURNING TO A NORMAL MARKET… Buyers now have more choices and more time with which to make their decision. There is a slight chasm between seller and buyer right now which is slowing the market. Sellers are in disbelief that they can’t get the price they thought they would get. That is a bitter pill to swallow, but one that ultimately must be swallowed. Buyers, on the other hand, think that because a house has been on the market more than 30 days, (does anyone remember that in a normal market, your days on market average 90 to 120 days?), they can go in and “low ball” an offer. Both sides are being unrealistic. This is normal for a market that transitioned quickly. There is a “gap” period when sellers get real and buyers get reasonable. That’s where we are, so yes, sales will pick up.
WHAT WERE THE ACTUAL NUMBERS… The total number of 3,276 was off only 12% from March. There were 1,915 single-family resale, 984 condos, and 377 new homes. The median price for a single-family was $705,000 and for condos $460,000. Year over year appreciation comes in at a modest 9% and you can expect that number to hover there and perhaps go lower as the year goes on. It was stated before in this newsletter, that we needed appreciation to slow down for the overall health of the market. Look to the breakdown of sales by price range to explain the median increase. The under $400,000 range had 429 sales, followed by the $400,000 to $500,000 at 469, and barely higher than that was $500,000 to $600,000 with 505 and nearly constant with that was $600,000 to $700,000 with 597, all to be blasted out with the over $700,000 price range which had 1,255.
PROTECTING YOUR EQUITY FROM LAWSUIT DAMAGES… Many people of wealth have known about umbrella policies for a long time. Umbrella policies are additional policies that work just the way they sound, to wrap around coverage you already have through homeowners and auto, to offer additional coverage against personal lawsuits. Because of enormous increases in home equity thanks to the last 8 years, people now have substantial wealth in their homes and rentals. There was an interesting article in the LA Times talking about umbrella policies and how they aid when normal policy coverage ends. It may be worth talking to an insurance agent about. If you would like a copy of the article, please give me a call.
REALTORS DO NOT DRIVE THE MARKET… The truth is the market drives the market. Realtors do not decide what houses will sell for, anymore than a stockbroker decides what stocks will sell for. Simply put, a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it at a given point in time. But our homes are emotional whereas stocks are not. Right now, housing starts have fallen 7.4% to its lowest in 17 months. Demand is high for the new high rise condos coming soon to many of our cities. Interest rates remain fairly steady at 6 ½ to 6 ¾ depending on product. The Federal Reserve says inflation is “under control” although we all know oil affects everything from deliveries to tires, to plastic wrap, to air travel. Notices of Default are up 50% from a year ago with 374 last month but foreclosures were still not even a blip with 22. All of these factors affect the real estate market.

[Wmc]

I sell title insurance and we are definitly feeling the effects of the slowdown!! It is taking much longer for agents to sell homes, a lot are going into expireds. I am definitly getting more Re-fi business then re-sale business. We are scrambeling to widen our customer base!! They are telling us it should level off this suummer.....however it will turn into a buyers market!
I'm in the Mortgage business and we have felt the effects of the slow down, however we have the product that borrowers want and this could possibly be one of my best funding months. Once school is out people will start moving so house sales will go up and we will be busy. Good Luck out there!!!

[locogringo]

Is that high? If so, how much higher than last month and last year?
I couldn't tell you that right off hand, I do know that it is averaging about that per week for roughly 3-4 months though.
And HOW do you get that done???
A company I've been using close to 4 months now. They also monitor the person's account for a year and continually remove derog's, inquiries, etc.
They have also successfully removed BK's but that process is 8-11 months to get that off. Yes, it is all legal, legite (even in CAlifornia) and have been doing it for 17 years successfully. I don't represent them, I just use them for those people to try to help them back on their feet. Cost me between $7-12 grand but is worth it.

[locogringo]

Notices of Default are up 50% from a year ago with 374 last month but foreclosures were still not even a blip with 22. All of these factors affect the real estate market.
his numbers are quite off here, went to more Trustee Sales than 22.