It's back....

[LaveyJet]

El Nino (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm) makes a return this winter. Like always, we can use the water... but not the flooding. :yuk:

[Mrs. Bordsmnj]

El Nino makes for a fantasic snowboarding season in Mammoth. :rollside:

[AirtimeLavey]

El Nino makes for a fantasic snowboarding season in Mammoth. :rollside:
Yeah, baby! Bring it! :cool:

[wsuwrhr]

El Nino makes for a fantasic snowboarding season in Mammoth. :rollside:
Yes it does MRS BordsMJ.
It makes for a fine season anywhere.
'98 was the best year to date.
Brian

[lalhc]

It doesn't always mean more snow for Mammoth. I just read this article on another website:
This came from my mammoth buddy...note the talk of El Nino stuff. Specifically, a weak El Nino often results in a drier Sierra, BUT, a wetter southern california because of split flow storms going north and south around the Sierra.
This is all worth what you paid for it...
------------------------------------
FLASH! CLIMATIC PREDICTION CENTER ANNOUNCES: El NINO CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2007. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MAMMOTH?....SEE LOWER AREA OF DWEEB REPORT.
DEBUNKING THE MYTHS: GO TO .... http://ggweather.com/archive/weacornerfeb12.htm
--------------------------"A TASTE OF FALL"-------------------------
"COOL FALL LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK......WINDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST JET THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AM.....SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW PELLETS OVER THE CREST FRIDAY NIGHT.....QUITE WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY AREA....MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE THE WIND FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20 AND LOWER 30S BY THIS WEEKEND"
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.............
AS PER CPC: By early September equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5C were observed in most of the equatorial Pacific, with anomalies exceeding +1.0C in the central Pacific between 165E and 170W. The latest SST departures in the Nino regions" are all greater than +0.5".
NOTE: "WEAK" EL NINO'S ARE NO GUARENTEE OF A WET WINTER IN MAMMOTH. IN FACT, JUST THE OPPOSITE...WEAK EL NINOS ARE USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY SPLIT FLOW PATTERNS AND DRYER THAN NORMAL WINTERS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD. THEY DO TEND TO BE WETTER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THIS EL NINO, AS IF IT INTENSIFIES, THAT WOULD BE QUITE A DIFFERENT STORY...MORE LATER....
SSTS: 9-5-06
THERE IS A STRONG WARM POOL AT 50-NORTH/38WEST SOUTH OF GREENLAND.....OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...A VERY STRONG SST ANOMALY IS LOCATED BETWEEN 160E AND THE DATELINE. LATEST GFMs KEEP THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH NEAR THIS POSITIVE SST HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE MID LATTS AND RIGHTLY SO. THIS TELECONNECTS TO DOWN STREAM TROFING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC AND KEEPS RIDGING OVER THE FAR WEST. A PATTERN LIKE THIS TO ME TELLS ME IN ITSELF THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WARM 1/2 OF FALL...THEN COLDER INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN DEVELOPING SOMETIME SECOND HALF OF FALL AS WARMER WATER GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 130W TO 140W WEST LATER IN THE FALL.
FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD....
FOR THE TIME BEING....THE WEATHER OVER MONO COUNTY ON A LARGE SCALE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CONTINENTIAL HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AS IT IS IN THE SUMMER.....WITH TIME THIS KEY UPPER HEIGHT FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND THE FOCUS BECOMES AGAIN THE PACIFIC....
AS THE QBO IS BECOMING EVER SO MUCH STRONGER IN THE POSITIVE PHASE (WEST TO EAST) THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL GROW IN STRENGTH AS WELL LATER IN THE FALL. IT APPEAR "AT THIS TIME" WE WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTANT POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN OVER THE FAR WEST. IF THE DOMAINATING WARM POOL REMAINS ANCHORED THERE JUST WEST OF THE DATE...THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO DRIVE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI PERSISTANT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WEST.
THIS ALL ARGUES STRONGLY FOR A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND WITH A WEAK EL NINO IN THE CARDS AS WELL...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BOTH COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER AND A DRIER ONE AS WELL......THIS COULD END UP BEING ANOTHER WINTER FROM HELL FOR FORECASTERS LIKE ONES WE HAD IN THE LATE 80S AND LIKE 1967-68 WHERE STORMS WERE FORECASTED BY MODELS TO BRING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS AND NEVER MADE IT BEYOND THE SIERRA CREST. LOTS OF HAM AND EGGS ON FORECASTER FACES! SO TO SUM IT UP...AT LEAST "AT THIS TIME"...IT LOOKS LIKE A BOTH COLDER AND MUCH DRIER WINTER THAN LAST.
THE DWEEBS ARE NOT BUYING INTO ANOTHER WET WINTER LIKE THE RUMORS AROUND TOWN THAT ARE GOING AROUND....."AT LEAST AT THIS TIME". WHY? BECAUSE THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE OUT THERE AND THIS IS ONLY SEPTEMBER!
AS A POSITIVE NOTE.....IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A TRUE WEAK EL NINO YEAR....THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STRONG MJO COULD INITIATE A PINAPPLE CONNECTION RESPONSE DURING THE WINTER. LOTS TO THINK ABOUT....BY NO MEANS IS THE UP COMING WINTER SET IN CONCRETE YET!!!
ENSO:
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM IS TILTING TOWARD A WARM EVENT, AND SOME INDICES OFFER THAT A WEAK WARM EVENT HAS ALREADY EMERGED.
HOWEVER....THERE IS AN SST PATTERN OF COOL SST'S NEAR INDONESIA WITH WARMTH AROUND THE DATE LINE WHICH IS TYPICAL OF MATURE WARM EVENTS NOT, NOT DEVELOPING ONES.
THE CLIMATIC PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO MONTHS "WITH WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS BY YEAR END"....NO SIGNIFACANT EL NINO FORCING EXPECTED THIS WINTER.

[Havasu_Dreamin]

Right now it's forecast as a weak El Nino.