Housing Market - Reloaded

[Cole Sanger]

So how do the real estate people feel about the market now? I am in AZ. Just hearing small tid bits that the market is looking better. Not booming like before, but more at a steady reliable state. I was thinking about putting our house up in Febuary, but not sure I can get it ready by then. I do know I don't want to get sucker punched and have to keep it for 6 months like some have had to do recently. Anyone have the inside scoop on interest rates and the housing market?

[707dog]

got no inside crap but im in cali and it sux out here:devil: our other house has been on the market for almost 4months and all we have gottin so far is some lease with options and a bunch of window shoppers..but good luck to ya!!

[SummitKarl]

yup there is life in the old market. I would say it's getting/heading back to normal, at least what normal was before the big boom of the last 4yrs or so, which was a steady 12%(or so) growth from say 1996-2002. I hear interest rates are holding to inching down a bit, and orders for new homes are starting to trickle into my desk....nothing like before but there is life in the Havasu market, the good Realtors like Hot Boats own "warlock25" are still selling and closing homes, which reminds me she has a stunning 1900sqft3bdr 3car with a 27' x 36'dp 3rd car bay about to hit the market.
the not so good have been weeded out, I know a couple of other Century21 havasu Realtors that just haven't seemed to be affected by all this they continue to sell homes in the resale market at a rather healthy pace, will it be as it was before.....sure I believe it will, western AZ is going to be the next So Cal...there is no doubt about that, can any of us say exactly when thats going to happen...no. but if I were to guess at it...shortly after the 2008 election:D
as for the short term..just about everyone is saying the same thing..February just wait till February

[talkinghead]

I recently read that the NAR (National Association of Realtors) spent over 40 million in a publicity campaign this fall trying to convince people that the so-called bubble was not bursting.
It's hard to get objective information in my opinion - overall in the Temecula area (so cal) I would say the market is very, very slow.
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

[totenhosen]

So how do the real estate people feel about the market now? I am in AZ. Just hearing small tid bits that the market is looking better. Not booming like before, but more at a steady reliable state. I was thinking about putting our house up in Febuary, but not sure I can get it ready by then. I do know I don't want to get sucker punched and have to keep it for 6 months like some have had to do recently. Anyone have the inside scoop on interest rates and the housing market?
Talk with Bob from the Boards. From what I've seen of my rental properties in Ahwautukee they were priced at $300k at their peak and I could get $275k with a much longer marketing time.

[Boa1277]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but unfortunately for all of us homeowners the west is forcasted to correct for the next couple of years, Please check this link to CNN and you can see what they are forecasting for your area....
www.money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_realestate/4.html

[AirtimeLavey]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but unfortunately for all of us homeowners the west is forcasted to correct for the next couple of years, Please check this link to CNN and you can see what they are forecasting for your area....
www.money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_realestate/4.html
Bubble bursting? :idea: :rolleyes: Even if these forecasts were to come true, they look more like a normal cycle to me. I guess it's all in how you want to look at it, or hype it. These regional forecast numbers look different than numbers I have seen, but then that's the beauty of forecasts, you can never be sure which ones are going to be right. I would tend to be conservative on the market coming back short term. It's really flattened out, although we've still seen mostly small appreciation, even in the face of large percentage sales declines. New construction is a different story.
I recently read that the NAR (National Association of Realtors) spent over 40 million in a publicity campaign this fall trying to convince people that the so-called bubble was not bursting.
It's hard to get objective information in my opinion - overall in the Temecula area (so cal) I would say the market is very, very slow.
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
This is interesting. I haven't seen this 40 million in marketing directed this way. Odd because the numbers show that so far there is no bubble bursting. Amazing how perception without facts, can sway people. If anything, the marketing would be geared towards trying to get people to look at reality and not just the hype and speculation usually put out by sources like those websites you've posted there. I would expect nothing less than hype from a website called "thehousing bubble.com".....lol.
It is taking longer to sell houses. Buyers are waiting, thinking prices are going to come down further, and sellers are slow to understand that they have to be more realistic in their prices. The houses that are on the market for a very long time, are probably priced too high above the market. This time of year is also the slowest for home sales. Homes that are priced competitively are selling.
If you bought recently, and want to sell soon, you're not going make much of a profit if at all. If you're there for the long term, you've got nothing to worry about. If you're 100% financed, on an adjustable, well, you knew it could happen. Good luck. Just my .02, but I could be wrong....or not.

[Trailer Park Casanova]

Lot value in the beach cities is screamin hot.
Scrapers in good neighborhoods holding steady too.

[2Driver]

Ahwatukee has the US's number one foreclosure rate right now. Did you see the article on Anthem? Can't give them away and prices are in some cases below pre-run up prices!!! There are just for-sale signs everywhere and it is going to take time to get through that inventory. Meanwhile builders can build cheaper than the old run up prices so that is killing prices on the resale end of things.
I think if you are in the under $600K track home market it might not be a good time, but do your homework and have your agent run a "CMA" on your neighborhood or zip code. The CMA will show average asking price, sold price, days on market and price per square foot. This should give you some indication on what to expect. There are pockets of the valley still doing ok.

[talkinghead]

The NAR campaign may not have been directed your way AirtimeLavey, but it was directed - here's the link to the press release:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/nar_advises_consumers_to_buy_now.html
Along the same lines, I think it goes without saying that one might expect a message of this nature from NAR.
Bottomline IMO: Always consider your source

[wsuwrhr]

AL.
Man I would look good in a skirt with some pom poms.
Should I have said that?
I know of one seller like that.
How are we doing sir?
Brian
It is taking longer to sell houses. Buyers are waiting, thinking prices are going to come down further, and sellers are slow to understand that they have to be more realistic in their prices. The houses that are on the market for a very long time, are probably priced too high above the market. This time of year is also the slowest for home sales. Homes that are priced competitively are selling.

[AirtimeLavey]

The NAR campaign may not have been directed your way AirtimeLavey, but it was directed - here's the link to the press release:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/nar_advises_consumers_to_buy_now.html
Along the same lines, I think it goes without saying that one might expect a message of this nature from NAR.
Bottomline IMO: Always consider your source
Again, I don't see where they're addressing the "bubble". Rates are low and seller's are becoming more negotiable. Which part of that is propaganda? It does talk about long term buying, and the history of RE as a sound investment in the long term. Makes sense to me. I think the idea here is to try and create some calm over all the unjustified hype that the sky is falling. How does this hurt anyone?
You're right, the source is important, but you also have to understand what you're reading.
AL.
Man I would look good in a skirt with some pom poms.
Should I have said that?
I know of one seller like that.
How are we doing sir?
Brian
Dude, nothing personal, but the skirt and pom poms (on a guy) doesn't work for me, and actually sounds kinda scary. Homey don't play that. :D
No worries, it's the holidays. I'll be in touch soon. :D

[wsuwrhr]

I was just saying....
Dude, nothing personal, but the skirt and pom poms (on a guy) doesn't work for me, and actually sounds kinda scary. Homey don't play that. :D
No worries, it's the holidays. I'll be in touch soon. :D

[talkinghead]

And it also helps to understand how to read between what you're reading.
:)

[Nord]

Either way, I bought my house a little over 5 years ago, and it will probably never go down to the price I bought it at. After Christmas, I am going to start looking for a second home to buy and rent out. Hopefully I can make my money work for me a little. Ivan Dan sent me some links a while back and those prices have come down quite a bit, so I'll wait it out. We'll see.......
~NORD~

[wsuwrhr]

I am in the same boat you are concerning the time I bought.
I have been considering keeping this house and renting it out.
Brian
Either way, I bought my house a little over 5 years ago, and it will probably never go down to the price I bought it at. After Christmas, I am going to start looking for a second home to buy and rent out. Hopefully I can make my money work for me a little. Ivan Dan sent me some links a while back and those prices have come down quite a bit, so I'll wait it out. We'll see.......
~NORD~

[AirtimeLavey]

I was just saying....
;) :D
And it also helps to understand how to read between what you're reading.
:)
You're female aren't you? That's the same logic my wife uses. ;)
As I'm less prone to react on a whim or rumor or innuendo, I prefer to see things factually, and then act. When you start to read between the lines, then all kinds of things can be construed. :idea:
Then again, maybe I should be reading between the lines of Wsuwrhr's post. :D

[wsuwrhr]

No way man. Them's just jokes bud.
No skirts for me.
..or were you talking about the other post?
Brian
;) :D
You're female aren't you? That's the same logic my wife uses. ;)
As I'm less prone to react on a whim or rumor or innuendo, I prefer to see things factually, and then act. When you start to read between the lines, then all kinds of things can be construed. :idea:
Then again, maybe I should be reading between the lines of Wsuwrhr's post. :D

[AirtimeLavey]

Either way, I bought my house a little over 5 years ago, and it will probably never go down to the price I bought it at. After Christmas, I am going to start looking for a second home to buy and rent out. Hopefully I can make my money work for me a little. Ivan Dan sent me some links a while back and those prices have come down quite a bit, so I'll wait it out. We'll see.......
~NORD~
You bought at a great time. Corona is a tough market right now, because there is a lot of inventory up for sale right now. Probably why you've seen those sales prices come down from their original asking prices. And like you said, most of those folks probably haven't lost against what they paid, but they are just down from what they originally thought they could sell for. Good luck w/your investing. I.D.'s a good realtor. :cool:

[AirtimeLavey]

No way man. Them's just jokes bud.
No skirts for me.
..or were you talking about the other post?
Brian
Just messing....:D

[Boa1277]

Well I guess bubble is a big word if you look at it that way, I took the info off of CNN website so I gave it some credibility, even though it is just a prediction. Personally I paid 135,000 for my home in 1992 it recently appraised for 529,000 and even if it goes down 8% I figure I am still ahead. I still wouldnt be looking for a rental quite yet maybe in a year or two.

[riverroyal]

spring,,,

[out of bounds]

the market in Nor Cal (Sac) area has been slowing but last month wasn't to bad. If the feds stay true to there word and the inflasition rate dosn't come in to bad we should a have great start to next year .The bound is in good shape and with congress passing the bill that will allow the Mortgage Insurance (PMI )to be a wright off on people tax returns that will help out as well. Ok in the middle of this I take a phone call and take a loan app. Now get this 480 scores 75k in eq in the house 4 mounths late on moetgage 2 months late on 100k worth of cars and has a gambling problem. WTF this is why we are going down the road we are... Look some one else that I am going to have to work to suport!As long as we can look at the big pitcher then the market will be ok, not great but ok.my 2 cents

[CA Stu]

Economics 101: Supply and demand.
Lots of "exotic" mortgages (interest only, teaser rate, etc. etc.) needing refinancing + lower housing values = a lot of people won't be able to make the new, larger nut, and will need to refinance a home that they owe more on it than it is worth.
Where will people be able to borrow $650k on a $550k home? Nowhere.
Therefore, a lot of people will walk away, let their homes go into foreclosure, or sell at whatever price they can manage.
Therefore, there will be a lot of houses for sale.
Therefore, prices will go down.
Economics 101: Supply and demand.
I know it's only a cycle, but there sure is a lot of sunshine being blown up people's butts around here.
I have nothing to gain or lose one way or the other. I don't gamble like that.
Thanks
CA Stu

[riverroyal]

Economics 101: Supply and demand.
Lots of "exotic" mortgages (interest only, teaser rate, etc. etc.) needing refinancing + lower housing values = a lot of people won't be able to make the new, larger nut, and will need to refinance a home that they owe more on it than it is worth.
Where will people be able to borrow $650k on a $550k home? Nowhere.
Therefore, a lot of people will walk away, let their homes go into foreclosure, or sell at whatever price they can manage.
Therefore, there will be a lot of houses for sale.
Therefore, prices will go down.
Economics 101: Supply and demand.
I know it's only a cycle, but there sure is a lot of sunshine being blown up people's butts around here.
I have nothing to gain or lose one way or the other. I don't gamble like that.
Thanks
CA Stu
builders have stopped all construction for now.Supply went down in san diego last month,in november.That never happens this time of year

[CA Stu]

builders have stopped all construction for now.Supply went down in san diego last month,in november.That never happens this time of year
They obviously have a good idea of what the next year holds regarding the real estate market.
Why build when you can wait and make more money later, even if you have to pay the note while you're waiting?
They must be forecasting a significant drop in price for an idle period to make financial sense, no?
Thanks
CA Stu

[wsuwrhr]

RR and CA Stu
My father in law superinten's for a rather large framing co. His crews are doing nothing at the moment and he has his best guys working in people's backyards doing remodels and add-ons to keep his people busy.
Brian
They obviously have a good idea of what the next year holds regarding the real estate market.
Why build when you can wait and make more money later, even if you have to pay the note while you're waiting?
They must be forecasting a significant drop in price for an idle period to make financial sense, no?
Thanks
CA Stu

[riverroyal]

They obviously have a good idea of what the next year holds regarding the real estate market.
Why build when you can wait and make more money later, even if you have to pay the note while you're waiting?
They must be forecasting a significant drop in price for an idle period to make financial sense, no?
Thanks
CA Stu
some areas are doing great,some are dead.I dont think a price drop will happen here on new homes.They will now build them as the sell.Before they built as fast as they can.It will also get the poor craftsman out of constuction,which is really needed.The final product on homes is very bad now,there hasnt been enough quaility tradesmen.Im working on project in north san diego that is 750000 sq feet of framing.Everyday minivans and truck load of guys drive on,looking for work.NONE of them speak english.Im not turning this racist,but the bad construction worker will now get filtered out.So in the long run this slowing will be great,just dont refi now or plan to move in the next year

[Throttle]

there is not anything wrong with it leveling off for now, is there? it can go up later!