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View Full Version : Article for those bubble bursting predictors...



AirtimeLavey
01-15-2007, 12:05 PM
Guess we're all still waiting...:idea: :rolleyes: :sleeping:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes16jan16,0,7844716.story?coll=la-home-headlines
I think there's still some adjusting to happen, but at least these facts are encouraging, unless you're a die hard sky-is-falling kinda person, and don't like facts. Affordability is still tough, and at some point that's got to come into play, somehow. :cool:

SHOTKALLIN
01-15-2007, 12:10 PM
Only new homes are selling. Buyers want you to give your house away or they will buy new.
just my .02

YeLLowBoaT
01-15-2007, 02:15 PM
I don't know what you call it, but I call house selling for ~25% less then they did 6 months ago a bubble bursting. I've seen some home sale for less then they did 2 year ago and thats after the home owner put ~25+k in to remodeling it( scraping ceilings, crown/base, paint...)... I know, I was the one that got the 25k for the remodel work.
Also with what builders are giving away now( free land scape, washer/drier/frig, new flat screens + slashing prices up to 100k from the start of the year) I don't see the older home market doing well anytime soon.

djunkie
01-15-2007, 02:22 PM
I don't know what you call it, but I call house selling for ~25% less then they did 6 months ago a bubble bursting. I've seen some home sale for less then they did 2 year ago and thats after the home owner put ~25+k in to remodeling it( scraping ceilings, crown/base, paint...)... I know, I was the one that got the 25k for the remodel work.
Also with what builders are giving away now( free land scape, washer/drier/frig, new flat screens + slashing prices up to 100k from the start of the year) I don't see the older home market doing well anytime soon.
25% less? Not anywhere around me. 10% maybe. And thats in the low rent district part of town.

Kilrtoy
01-15-2007, 02:27 PM
In havasu prices are falling faster than Walmarts

djunkie
01-15-2007, 02:29 PM
In havasu prices are falling faster than Walmarts
Luckily I bought when it was still relatively cheap. :D :D

YeLLowBoaT
01-15-2007, 02:32 PM
Its atleast 25% Close to me... house that sold for ~600k are now selling for the low 400s.
I have a relative who has been trying to sell his house since july of last year, in aug they had a offer of 425k that they did not take( as well as about 10 others in the 390-415 range). they just took a offer for 315k last week.

djunkie
01-15-2007, 02:41 PM
Its atleast 25% Close to me... house that sold for ~600k are now selling for the low 400s.
I have a relative who has been trying to sell his house since july of last year, in aug they had a offer of 425k that they did not take( as well as about 10 others in the 390-415 range). they just took a offer for 315k last week.
Nowhere close to that here. A dump down the street from me started at $699k and sold for $659k. A house I've been watching started at $619k and is down to $559 right now. Thats about the biggest drop I've seen.

Mohave Vice
01-15-2007, 02:45 PM
I find this site very interesting. Just type in an address. www.zillow.com

AirtimeLavey
01-15-2007, 03:01 PM
I don't know what you call it, but I call house selling for ~25% less then they did 6 months ago a bubble bursting. I've seen some home sale for less then they did 2 year ago and thats after the home owner put ~25+k in to remodeling it( scraping ceilings, crown/base, paint...)... I know, I was the one that got the 25k for the remodel work.
Also with what builders are giving away now( free land scape, washer/drier/frig, new flat screens + slashing prices up to 100k from the start of the year) I don't see the older home market doing well anytime soon.
I would call houses selling for 25% less pretty dang close to a bubble bursting, over a 6 month period. I haven't seen that anywhere. I think you might be confusing asking prices coming down, versus actually selling prices coming down. Big difference. If you sell for less than you bought, the value has fallen. If you lower your price from $100k over what you paid to $50k over what you paid, you still had appreciation, but the price came down. This is where people are mis-construing things. They are using asking prices versus real sales prices. Sellers are still struggling with the reality of what their houses are worth. They haven't necessarily lost money against what they paid, they just are claiming that they've lost money on what the THOUGHT they could sell it for, which most have have been at unrealistic projections based on the past market.
As someone else said on here before, how you buy is also important in determining how much you get in return. Right now is a tough time to flip. Sorry to hear about your loss, but it happens all the time when people don't look at the hard numbers. I have a neighbor that just dropped major jack on his kitchen. Kitchens are one of the best places to make money on the resale, but he has way over done it. He'll never get that money back out of it. He knows it, and plans to stay there for a long time. To each his own.
I'm mostly concerned w/So Cal, but I would like to see any stats you have that support your argument. No one can guarantee that it won't happen, but until there are sure signs of it actually happening, I don't buy into the hype. Like I said though, somehow, things need to get more affordable. So far, things are steady if not still slightly increasing as reported by the stats in this article. :idea:

AirtimeLavey
01-15-2007, 03:09 PM
I find this site very interesting. Just type in an address. www.zillow.com
Zillow can be a tool for getting an idea of value, but many times they can be way off the value as established by real world appraisal techniques. I have seen them off by over $75k on some houses. There are specific perameters that we use, and Zillow doesn't. I wouldn't sell my house or even buy a house based on Zillow. ;)

AirtimeLavey
01-15-2007, 03:18 PM
In havasu prices are falling faster than Walmarts
I'm not real familiar w/the housing market out there, but I would suspect that it's a high percentage of vacation or second homes in that market. That type of market would inherently be more volatile.

cdog
01-15-2007, 03:27 PM
I'm staying away from predicting the future on the behalf of anyone other than for myself. But I agree that the condo market in OC is 10-15% off of its peak. Condo's that were selling for $500k are now selling at $425k. This spring will be the true test of the market. Lenders are getting squeezed by big brother to tighten up lending practices. Without first time home buyers to purchase the condo there's no buyer for the next step home. Either rent's need to sky rocket to make housing look more affordable or the price of homes need to come down 20-25% off of there peaks.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a deal in OC. I'm an agent and currently have a list of 40+ homes under Short Sale status that should be purchased under current market value.
Corey
714-658-6291

YeLLowBoaT
01-15-2007, 05:22 PM
I would call houses selling for 25% less pretty dang close to a bubble bursting, over a 6 month period. I haven't seen that anywhere. I think you might be confusing asking prices coming down, versus actually selling prices coming down. Big difference. If you sell for less than you bought, the value has fallen. :
Actaul selling price was around 600k. The entire street now is around 400ish. The good news is most of the house in my area only stay on the market for about a week( unless ppl are asking for the sky) Now I know some ppl still made money at 400k, but I also know of 4 of them where ppl have signed them back over to the bank and just walked away.( just got done biding them) Then again, the same house across the street( diffrent city) have never been above 400k. One thing that has stoped is, they are no longer buying the 1200sq ft houses built right after wwII and doing a "3 wall reavations"( next block over)

77charger
01-15-2007, 05:31 PM
5 houses on my street for sale right now been up since sept. couple have lowered prices.
Last year same time they would have been gone in about a week for asking price or more.6 years ago i paid 190k

Waldo
01-16-2007, 08:00 AM
We purchased our river mobile 2 1/2 years ago (June/market soaring)...Sold it this month (dead of winter/off season/#s going way down) for 25% more than what I paid. Very blessed to have gotten away with that investment.

RiverToysJas
01-16-2007, 08:27 AM
According the Sunday Register, In December OC was up a couple percent over the period last year. They say we might see a drop of as much as 5-8% in the coming two years....nothing substancial though.
RTJas :D

C-2
01-16-2007, 08:49 AM
As a bubble-busting predictor, I gotta tell ya - I've been pretty busy with the results of the non-existent bubble burst. Myself, and many people I know too.
And it's only getting busier - still waiting for the interest rates to go up.
New sales and existing sales have nothing to with affordability of existing paper. When the banks stop writing shiat loans, to bail eveybody out of the last round of shiat loans, then it will get everybody's attention.
I'm nit sure that even qualifies as a "bubble burst", but it is happening.

cdog
01-16-2007, 11:07 AM
Here's a good article from my boss.
http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/archives/2007/01/oc_home_inventory_mark_up_as_y_1.html

grads2112
09-26-2008, 01:16 PM
I think it's safe to say that it has popped.:rolleyes:

John.
09-27-2008, 07:20 PM
I'm still hoping for a turn around soon. Ericka is one of the real estate agents who has stuck it out through the slow times the past two years. I hope it doesn't continue forever...but we're in it for the long run. Hopefully someday she'll get to have weekends off.

Mandelon
09-29-2008, 01:52 PM
Guess we're all still waiting...:idea: :rolleyes: :sleeping:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes16jan16,0,7844716.story?coll=la-home-headlines
I think there's still some adjusting to happen, but at least these facts are encouraging, unless you're a die hard sky-is-falling kinda person, and don't like facts. Affordability is still tough, and at some point that's got to come into play, somehow. :cool:
Hmmmm, I'd give up on prognosticating the economy for a couple years. :D