Foreclosures and more doom and gloom or opportunities..

[Mandelon]

So we set a record in San Diego today...I got this from one of the foreclosure specialist brokers we work for today
Well I get the NODs and NOSs everyday and there was a new one day record today, 66 NODs and 64 NOSs, yes thatÂ’s just for ONE day.
If it stays near this, and not increasing like it has been this will translate to 750 to 1000 new foreclosures a month.
San Diego typically leads the state in trends, and Cali leads the nation. So hang on to your hats folks, it might get ugly. I know of many condo complexes that have dropped 100,000 in value since the peak. Yes that's about a 25% drop. Are you ready for that?
But it can be an opportunity as well for the brave....Get your equity lines in place now so you can have access to the cash when the deals start dropping.
Its a cycle and around here, its still on the way down. Places are still selling, but buyers are choosy. Condos here are overbuilt, and really soft. Decent suburban areas still gather multiple offers, downtown is saturated.
My Phoenix foreclosure broker is getting busier by the week.

[INSman]

What is the point ??
Quit telling everyone about it and go snap up all the great deals for yourself :rolleyes:

[MikeF]

Fact remains that there are a whole lotta people out there that do not make enough money each year to afford a house in this state. Somethings gotta happen.:idea:

[Mandelon]

What is the point ??
Quit telling everyone about it and go snap up all the great deals for yourself :rolleyes:
I think I'd rather wait till they're done going down. :eek:

[ClownRoyal]

So we set a record in San Diego today...I got this from one of the foreclosure specialist brokers we work for today
Well I get the NODs and NOSs everyday and there was a new one day record today, 66 NODs and 64 NOSs, yes that’s just for ONE day.
If it stays near this, and not increasing like it has been this will translate to 750 to 1000 new foreclosures a month.
San Diego typically leads the state in trends, and Cali leads the nation. So hang on to your hats folks, it might get ugly. I know of many condo complexes that have dropped 100,000 in value since the peak. Yes that's about a 25% drop. Are you ready for that?
But it can be an opportunity as well for the brave....Get your equity lines in place now so you can have access to the cash when the deals start dropping.
Its a cycle and around here, its still on the way down. Places are still selling, but buyers are choosy. Condos here are overbuilt, and really soft. Decent suburban areas still gather multiple offers, downtown is saturated.
My Phoenix foreclosure broker is getting busier by the week.
Dude...you need to get rid of your Avatar. I'm sorry, but that is UGLY and takes away from what you have to say.
What happened to the girl?

[christhomas2]

San Diego also leads the state in interest only and zero down loans! go figure.

[INSman]

I think I'd rather wait till they're done going down. :eek:
Great... When you have that part figured out, please call me and let me know when that date is :rolleyes:

[rrrr]

Lots of foreclosures here.....but people have been infected with the bighouse fever for the last few years. Buy the biggest thing you can qualify for, even if the loan comes from a guy with gold teef and no office.....then, Bam!.....
I'm just looking around......who has to sell what to stay afloat.

[Mandelon]

Dude...you need to get rid of your Avatar. I'm sorry, but that is UGLY and takes away from what you have to say.
What happened to the girl???
The took my dancing girl away when the revised the site last time. I've been lost ever since.... who is that ugly guy in that picture anyway?? :D

[MikeF]

??
The took my dancing girl away when the revised the site last time. I've been lost ever since.... who is that ugly guy in that picture anyway?? :D
Wouldn't that be SHORT ugly guy?!:eek: :D

[SummitKarl]

I would assume that these foreclosures are for homes that were lets say creatively financed....like 80/20 loans and such...now drop the property value 25% and the bank is 25% upside down on the foreclosure.
whats the bank is going do with it?
to try to sell it for whats owed on it, which is more than the appraisal
take a 25% hit and raise interest rates to make up for the loss
where is the deal... unless the foreclosure is for a home thats say 50% loan to value and the bank sells it off at that 50% then there is a deal, but I am just guessing that the foreclosures are for the Higher loan to value brackets?

[Rexone]

Fact remains that there are a whole lotta people out there that do not make enough money each year to afford a house in this state. Somethings gotta happen.:idea:
It's happening.
I posted a year and a half ago about it but got hammered a little on the subject by the pie in the sky RE group so I just shut up.
Way too many bad quality loans and way too rapidly and falsely inflated property values over way too long a period of time. Not a real hard equation to get to the end result which is now becoming reality. When the majority of people can't afford homes there's a problem. Historically all the rapid and extreme value run ups have correction periods. The big question now is, will the rest the economy follow real estate?
I have an opinion on it, but I think I'll just shut up in advance this time. ;)

[socalmofo]

Please enlighten us on where in San Diego there has been a 400k condo DROP to 300k? I'm not talking conversions.

[riverroyal]

market,my neighbor hood,a "premier" new community is very slow,my house is down about 150k in one year.No way I could move now.But sales are up around SD.Plus we seeing framing starts all over town again

[MikeF]

It's happening.
I posted a year and a half ago about it but got hammered a little on the subject by the pie in the sky RE group so I just shut up.
Way too many bad quality loans and way too rapidly and falsely inflated property values over way too long a period of time. Not a real hard equation to get to the end result which is now becoming reality. When the majority of people can't afford homes there's a problem. Historically all the rapid and extreme value run ups have correction periods. The big question now is, will the rest the economy follow real estate?
I have an opinion on it, but I think I'll just shut up in advance this time. ;)
Kinda like NASDAQ valuation in 1999.:sqeyes:

[Mandelon]

Please enlighten us on where in San Diego there has been a 400k condo DROP to 300k? I'm not talking conversions.
Mostly southbay. Easlake and Otay Ranch especially. Conversions have been hit really hard. Conversions are down all over, lots going back to the banks unfinished. Check out any Maisel Presley project.....its gonna be really ugly for them.

[YeLLowBoaT]

i saw on the news the other day, how one loan company is going under. has offices in 20 states. I want to say it was pacfic something loan. They said they could not even pay thier employees the final check.
Not the 1st time its happend and it won't be the last.
If I was planing in staying in CA, I would be starting to look for something to buy... To bad I just bought 5 arces out of state... Over the next few years I plan on building a 3 bed 2bath house with attached shop. That will be a year or 2 down the road.

[C-2]

Actually on the 80/20 loans – the lender walks into the 20% equity since the 20% second notes were sold. That’s why foreclosures are still not a good deal – banks are doing alright, if not coming out on top. The 20% seonds are being shuffled around like MP3 songs - but that doesn't matter since the first note wipes them out anyways.
Fr the past three weeks I have been speaking with subprime lenders/REO departments. Strike that, TRYING TO. But they are so fawked up, in such a state of panic, nobody, and I mean nobody can say what will happen tomorrow (let alone, today). It's frightening to hear LENDERS in this mindset. I have never experienced anything like it. The top 5 subprime lenders - all in jeopardy of going BK.
A very experienced and old timer subprime mortgage broker friend told me in January the ship is going down. Two weeks ago he said the ship is going down, and is now on fire.
As a few days ago, the ship is going down, it's on fire, and oops, they discovered it was carrying gun powder. Lol
And since subprime loans (the 100's and 80/20's) are going bye bye (like today, as in already gone) - that knocks out 20% of all potential home buyers. Not to mention the 1000's of layoffs which are about to happen wihin the next few months since subprime departments are being axed quicker than that psycho-lady's threads this morning.
Fun times ahead :sqeyes:

[Mandelon]

Freddie Mac just quit buying sub prime loans, so who wants them now....the market for that paper just got a lot smaller.....making it harder for anyone with an NOD to refi.

[local805]

[QUOTE=YeLLowBoaT;2419434]i saw on the news the other day, how one loan company is going under. has offices in 20 states. I want to say it was pacfic something loan. They said they could not even pay thier employees the final check.
Not the 1st time its happend and it won't be the last.
If I was planing in staying in CA, I would be starting to look for something to buy... To bad I just bought 5 arces out of state... Over the next few years I plan on building a 3 bed 2bath house with attached shop. That will be a year or 2 down the road.[/QUOT
I CANT HELP BUT WONDER WHY THESE POST ABOUT THE CRASH OF RE AND ABOUT PEOPLE WITH THERE HOME/ATM MACHINE TO BUY THE TOYS THEY CANT AFORD IN THE FIRST PLACE ALWAYS OFFEND THE SAME PEOPLE OVER AND OVER AGAIN??????????????????GO FIGURE.:idea: :sqeyes:

[djunkie]

Prices are still through the roof over here.

[C-2]

Good reads:
http://ml-implode.com/
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

[C-2]

Too funny.
For those not familiar with a Trustees Sale.......this picture is just fitting. Once the equity is gone, all that will be left is the auctioneer (yes, the guy in the beenie, using the trashcan).
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/500/404294666_6de83ed0c7.jpg

[RiverToysJas]

Great Article..... (http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazines/fortune/subprime.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007030110)
RTJas :D

[brianthomas]

At least around here if you don't have 20% down you are forced to buy private mortgage insurance. This is insurance to cover the lender in case the value falls so the lender does not get stung. With PMI there is virtually no risk to the lender.

[NashvilleBound]

Mandelon...... good post but first off, 13" guns?? ROTFLMAO.....too funny. Keep us posted on current numbers if you would. I get people calling me all the time that really have no clue and it would be nice to get non bias area info. btw:when the smokin deals start popping up let me know AND where I can find a good agent to handle the transaction ;) ;)

[Sportin' Wood]

Sh1t will hit the fan when the fed finally gets what we are seeing in the real world. A neighborhood I'm watching has gone down a solid $50,000 and a few homes with the funny money loans are reduced $100,000 and still sitting. They where of course a $100,000 over priced and with the " correction" will likly end up in a short sale. My business partner and I are looking at some great homes in south west riverside county that are getting closer and closer to a great deal. No make that smokin deal! There are a few that I could not touch a year ago that are in my reach now. and its still falling.
In other news, Builders are starting to build again but a modified schedule (slow) and labor prices have fallen with production levels increased. Jezzzee maybe this slow down aint so bad! 15 guys are doing the work of 30 this time last year.:D In my neck of the woods there are tons of pads ready to build. Just sitting.Look at the publicly owned builders to take the hardest hit. The private ones are starting building again. I talked to a senior exc. at a public company two weeks ago and he told myself, and another sub contractor it was a blood bath.. We looked at each other and laughed.... He could not find the humor! Took two years longer then I thought but it looks like its here. Builders say May it will pick back up, but with the repo market heating up we will see.:confused: Only saving grace is the repo's are not enough of a deal yet and the builders can still offer some incentives that the repo market can not.
It may be the death blow to my construction company but my eggs are in enough baskets to allow me to enjoy the ride!

[RiverToysJas]

At least around here if you don't have 20% down you are forced to buy private mortgage insurance. This is insurance to cover the lender in case the value falls so the lender does not get stung. With PMI there is virtually no risk to the lender.
Yeah, but the piggyback 2nds allow you to avoid PMI.
RTJas :D

[Hallett19]

Most all of the foreclosures I have are all B and C paper but I have gotten a few leads on some A paper stuff starting to come in, only 2 but now the REO market is all over the board.
I'm very curious to see whats going to happen but I dont think this is going to get any better any time soon.
I went to see Angelo Mozilo talk the other day and his forecast of the market is bleek. I'm going to REOMac in Palm Springs in a few weeks, anyone else going?

[sdpm]

Just remember, "There is NO inflation" !! Just keep telling yourself that and everything will be fine.

[C-2]

Most all of the foreclosures I have are all B and C paper but I have gotten a few leads on some A paper stuff starting to come in, only 2 but now the REO market is all over the board.
I'm very curious to see whats going to happen but I dont think this is going to get any better any time soon.
I went to see Angelo Mozilo talk the other day and his forecast of the market is bleek. I'm going to REOMac in Palm Springs in a few weeks, anyone else going?
I tried to join their club - they wouldn't let me in.:mad:
I'm caught in catch-22 with no current lender client. They told me to go to a function ~ maybe I should start with this conference?

[Mandelon]

REOMac is a good start. I think you need to have a letter from a member to get in.
There's a lot of agents trying to get into REOs now. They see the old time brokers with 50, 125, even 200 plus listings and start licking their lips....Some of those brokers are gonna get rich this time around. Most agents were late to the party, but there's usually room for a few more.
I haven't seen any good deals yet. The banks aren't giving these places away. They are rehabbing, and reducing prices but not aggressively. I only know San Diego.....but what happens here often spreads around the state and at least the west.....

[C-2]

REOMac is a good start. I think you need to have a letter from a member to get in.
....
That's where my catch-22 is. The lenders I used to work for have all been consolidated and no longer exist. I too thought it would be a good start, makes sense, but they said I don't have enough experience. Lenders only, they won't accept letters from the REO attorneys.
Rigga please, I've done about 10,000 or so evictions, testified in court in excess of 500 times and my office used to handle 30 REO files A DAY.
I'm not convinced joining is absolutely necessary, but I will pursue it.

[Mandelon]

If you can get hooked up online or on the phone with a big lender like countrywide, start doing BPOs and worm your way in.....:D
In the beginning all you do is call and ask to be on the list....
http://www.dsnews.com/
www.reotrans.com
http://reoredbook.com/index.cfm

[INSman]

If you can get hooked up online or on the phone with a big lender like countrywide, start doing BPOs and worm your way in.....:D
In the beginning all you do is call and ask to be on the list....
http://www.dsnews.com/
www.reotrans.com
http://reoredbook.com/index.cfm
I work for Countrywide, but in the Insurance division. What is a BPO ? (Bank Owned Property) ?

[Mandelon]

BPO's are like discount appraisals done by agents. Broker's Price Opinion Banks typically pay $50 for these. Some guys do 5 or more a day...
Heck, I do them for a couple places, $125 each.

[locogringo]

One of the brokers in my team did 75 BPO's last month (February). I just love hearing from people saying that we live in a delusional sort of world and that no serious big bust is going to happen.
Kind of hard to imagine when there are so many NOD's being filed daily now among the other factors.

[Baja Big Dog]

Its time to watch a few infomericals...

[C-2]

Hey Mandyand Loco:
ItÂ’s funny you mention BPOÂ’s, as part of our service I was considering offering lenders a property profile and free comps, in advance of the BPO and to help further reduce delays.
I have two markets I’m going after – more traditional lenders like Wells, WAMU.
And then I have the “others” like HSBC, Fremont, New Century etc. For the “others”, I have to re-tool my material since I don’t think they really care about their image or even doing things correctly. In that capacity, they are looking for hired thugs, quick and dirty, just get the property empty!
IÂ’m sure I can also get in with asset managers since we do a good job, but we are most effective in between the trusteeÂ’s sale and before assignment to the asset manager, or broker, or REO attorney.
Three peeps on this board have helped me out with contacts – THANKS AGAIN :).
I built a website, check it out, see if my Flash loads fine:
www.hughesreo.com

[C-2]

Its time to watch a few infomericals...
That's what got this kid in trouble:sqeyes: :sqeyes: :
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

[locogringo]

Just more information for all those "NaySayers" out there...
Industry Closures
1. Oak Street Mortgage
2. Right Away Mortgage
3. Secured Funding
4. Mandalay
5. Decision One (closed 6 regional centers)
6. E-Loan – Closed its sub-prime division
HMIC
1. Own it Mortgage
2. Sebring Mortgage
3. Axis Mortgage
4. Fieldstone (closed 5 west coast branches and Arizona Operations
MLN – Stopped Funding Residential Loans
Wachovia Corporation (consolidated its wholesale operations)
Industry Layoffs
Saxon, RFC, Argent (1000), Ameriquest (3800), Bank of America (225)
Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Wachovia
For Sale
Option One, Meritage (sold to Lime Financial)
ResMae,
There is alot going on and it is gonna get REALLY exciting!

[EmpirE231]

Havasu homes will be affordable again :D

[Mandelon]

MLN owes us money too. We've done a couple rehabs for them, they're now BK, but someone has their portfolio, I think SPS is taking over and we'll get paid, it will just be a few weeks later than usual.
Here's a nice one I saw this week. Its gonna go for lot value...
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/500/medium/Baltimore_Pl_002.jpg
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/500/medium/Baltimore_Pl_004.jpg
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/500/medium/Baltimore_Pl_007.jpg

[ULTRA26 # 1]

Back in 99 and 2000, I viewed So Cal property, mainly SFD's, as being over inflated. I remember discussing this with my Son at that time, and telling him, prices have got to come down, so probabally not a good time to buy. Well my Son continued looking inspite of my expert {ha ha) advise and during the period between winter of 99 to winter of 2000, prices continued to rise. My Son found a house in N. Orange County, in Nov 2000, which we belived was under priced by about 50K. The purchase price was $320,000. This seemed to me to be fairly safe as he was buying with some built in equity. This same $320,000 home is now valued at $700,000 plus.
I have owned the same home in Orange County for almost 22 years. During that time there has never been a decrease in value that exceeded 10% that lasted more than about 18 mos. This took place in about 1990. I wish I could comprehend where the income is that continues to support the purchase of homes costing more than $600,000. While, appreciation has been a bit flat over the last 18 months, houses in my area continue to sell. I believed 10 years ago that the a correction in the price of housing was around the corner. In the last 10 years, housing in my area has increased a solid 100%. It seems like any drastic decrease in So Cal property would only result from loss of hi paying jobs. We may see a 10 to 15% decrease but IMO, it will just be tempoary.
I see homes in AZ Davis to Parker, which have doubled during 01 to 06 as being far less secure as an investment. I got lucky with a home purchase in Bullhead in 2001, I don't think that it would be wise to buy in to that area at today's level. (same thing I said to my Son 10 years ago about OC. I think I'll stick to something I know. but first I'll have to find something )
Nevermind
John M

[HocusPocus]

Back in 99 and 2000, I viewed So Cal property, mainly SFD's, as being over inflated. I remember discussing this with my Son at that time, and telling him, prices have got to come down, so probabally not a good time to buy. Well my Son continued looking inspite of my expert {ha ha) advise and during the period between winter of 99 to winter of 2000, prices continued to rise. My Son found a house in N. Orange County, in Nov 2000, which we belived was under priced by about 50K. The purchase price was $320,000. This seemed to me to be fairly safe as he was buying with some built in equity. This same $320,000 home is now valued at $700,000 plus.
I have owned the same home in Orange County for almost 22 years. During that time there has never been a decrease in value that exceeded 10% that lasted more than about 18 mos. This took place in about 1990. I wish I could comprehend where the income is that continues to support the purchase of homes costing more than $600,000. While, appreciation has been a bit flat over the last 18 months, houses in my area continue to sell. I believed 10 years ago that the a correction in the price of housing was around the corner. In the last 10 years, housing in my area has increased a solid 100%. It seems like any drastic decrease in So Cal property would only result from loss of hi paying jobs. We may see a 10 to 15% decrease but IMO, it will just be tempoary.
I see homes in AZ Davis to Parker, which have doubled during 01 to 06 as being far less secure as an investment. I got lucky with a home purchase in Bullhead in 2001, I don't think that it would be wise to buy in to that area at today's level. (same thing I said to my Son 10 years ago about OC. I think I'll stick to something I know. but first I'll have to find something )
Nevermind
John M
your son and yourself have bought homes to "live in" and homes you could afford, which is what we did 18 years ago with our havi house and 10 years ago with our phelan house... that just hasn't been the case in the past handful of years with alot of people. my wifes brother had a home he bought years ago.. one he could afford but decided to sell and move into a much bigger home that he barely qualified for and now it looks like he is going to lose it. anytime you can buy a house and keep it for 10 years your going to make money on it. the problem is when you get in over your head and hope your home value increases so much that you can pay off your toys and buy yet... a bigger house.

[cdog]

There are way too many quarter backs thinking they know the game. The professionals who know the business are taking back the control in the industry and newbez are dropping like flyz.
When you can rent a nice home in OC for $2300 or buy that same home with 20 % down and pay 4000 a month you know something is coming.

[BEER&WATER]

what i dont hear on this thred is
what about replacment cost???
everyones opinion is that the prices are going to drop more but last time i looked the price of plywood is going up so is concreat and copper wire and so on .
also where do you find vacant land in chino or some where close in to build on let alone build a fence around the new joint the cost of replacing is the real problem not the price of exsting homes or foclosers

[BEER&WATER]

it's the same problem here in havi .
lot $150 k cheap house $200 k $350 k if you make $25per hr you cant afford a 3000 per m payment . not to mention not to many pep's in havi make $25 per hr so what'a going to happen ???

[BEER&WATER]

if the bank's are going to turn us all into renter's
then what will they do when we ????????

[Mandelon]

what i dont hear on this thred is
what about replacment cost???
everyones opinion is that the prices are going to drop more but last time i looked the price of plywood is going up so is concreat and copper wire and so on .
also where do you find vacant land in chino or some where close in to build on let alone build a fence around the new joint the cost of replacing is the real problem not the price of exsting homes or foclosers
But you need to supply and demand into the equation. Demand has dropped, since the prices are coming down. Not many people want to buy into a depreciating market. And only 20% of wage earners can afford to buy an average house in many markets. Too many houses for sale, not enough buyers equals declining prices. There will be bargains, it will just take time for things to settle out.
Prices can get way below replacement value. You can buy houses in many markets for under $50K. No way could they be built for that.

[cdog]

what i dont hear on this thred is
what about replacment cost???
everyones opinion is that the prices are going to drop more but last time i looked the price of plywood is going up so is concreat and copper wire and so on .
also where do you find vacant land in chino or some where close in to build on let alone build a fence around the new joint the cost of replacing is the real problem not the price of exsting homes or foclosers
Supply & Demand.
Replacement cost is irrelevant because that market is priced based on demand. Less Demand= Over Supply = Lower prices across the board.

[CA Stu]

Looks like my dream of a rental house / summer pad in San Diego may come to fruition a couple of years sooner than I planned. :D
Thanks
CA Stu

[BEER&WATER]

it still seem's to me that the market is close to replacment cost in most case's . and i do understand functional
obsolesance that is not the case with most of the market. the supply and demaned is going to be there if not allready last time i heard we import more pep's every day (lol)

[BEER&WATER]

..

[Donttreadonme]

Supply & Demand.
Replacement cost is irrelevant because that market is priced based on demand. Less Demand= Over Supply = Lower prices across the board.
Actually, there are at least three things to consider:
Sales - Supply and Demand
Replacement Cost or Cost to Build - This is driven by the Theory of Substitution. If someone can build the same thing cheaper in a similar location they will and this will effect values both in new homes and the resale market.
Income - Depending on the market if rentals are substantially lower than the average mortgage payment the demand will grow since there is little reason to buy a house if you can rent for that much cheaper. This is Capitalization method or Multiplier method.
I have been warning people about a crash for some time now. The big boys haven't even entered the game yet. I know of at least 25 huge REITS that are all cash funded just sitting on the sidelines licking their chops and waiting. I know of entire streets in the city of Maricopa that will go under all purchased with funny money loans and sitting vacant since new.
http://www.hometownappraisers.com

[lucky]

Havasu homes will be affordable again :D
doubt it lol

[cdog]

Actually, there are at least three things to consider:
Sales - Supply and Demand
Replacement Cost or Cost to Build - This is driven by the Theory of Substitution. If someone can build the same thing cheaper in a similar location they will and this will effect values both in new homes and the resale market.
Income - Depending on the market if rentals are substantially lower than the average mortgage payment the demand will grow since there is little reason to buy a house if you can rent for that much cheaper. This is Capitalization method or Multiplier method.
I have been warning people about a crash for some time now. The big boys haven't even entered the game yet. I know of at least 25 huge REITS that are all cash funded just sitting on the sidelines licking their chops and waiting. I know of entire streets in the city of Maricopa that will go under all purchased with funny money loans and sitting vacant since new.
http://www.hometownappraisers.com
I think that depend on what context and are you are talking about.
Replacement Cost or Cost to Build
In area's that are built out like LA or OC it does not come into play (much).
My take on the raw materials comment was the obviously inflated price due to past demand. As the demand decreases so will the price of materials and labor to stay competitive. Replacement cost in context to the cost to build new Vrs resale.
I hope that made sense.

[OutCole'd]

Mandy, find me a house right on the water in Pacific Beach, will you??

[C-2]

Mandy, find me a house right on the water in Pacific Beach,
SUBPRIME....not SUBLIME!
That fixer upper he posted lookes pretty nice, no?

[Mandelon]

Sure Bill, how about a nice lifeguard tower.... you could commute with your Rhino... :D

[C-2]

Nice, Fremont is now under a Cease and Desist Order from the SEC; and a criminal probe has been launched against New Century. Get's better by the hour.

[OutCole'd]

Sure Bill, how about a nice lifeguard tower.... you could commute with your Rhino... :D
Sounds perfect to me. Thanks! And thanks for yesterday email.....:jawdrop:

[MBlaster]

doubt it lol
Sure looks like its getting cheaper to me...

[Mandelon]

I think there is a dozen foreclosures in town now....

[local805]

It's happening.
I posted a year and a half ago about it but got hammered a little on the subject by the pie in the sky RE group so I just shut up.
Way too many bad quality loans and way too rapidly and falsely inflated property values over way too long a period of time. Not a real hard equation to get to the end result which is now becoming reality. When the majority of people can't afford homes there's a problem. Historically all the rapid and extreme value run ups have correction periods. The big question now is, will the rest the economy follow real estate?
I have an opinion on it, but I think I'll just shut up in advance this time. ;)
yeah,we should all stay in a state of denial and talk about how the economy is great and all the new americans buying in the past 2-3 years really did qualify for there 700-800k houses making maybe if there lucky,90k a year.any one to deny this are fooling:smile themselves,and anyone that sat this market out and chose not to sell should have there head checked!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) :) :) :)

[4DAY4PLAY]

yeah,we should all stay in a state of denial and talk about how the economy is great and all the new americans buying in the past 2-3 years really did qualify for there 700-800k houses making maybe if there lucky,90k a year.any one to deny this are fooling:smile themselves,and anyone that sat this market out and chose not to sell should have there head checked!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) :) :) :)
If you sold at the peak then you bought again at the peak.....unless your single or have no kids...its kinda hard to convince your wife and kids that selling thier home and renting an apt or house(which is throwing money away) to time the market is a smart thing to do. More people get burned trying to time the market than actually make out. The smart thing to do(if you bought over 5 years ago) is to keep it, and buy another when things do drop. Most RE gurus will tell you never, never sell a piece of real estate if you can afford to keep it.

[1 Baja Guy]

Just sold a Spec House yesterday in Lake Arrowhead for asking price.... I took less than 45 days. I will admit... it surprised me... So maybe the market is still strong in certain places in sunny/snoweee So. Cali.:)

[Baja Big Dog]

Just sold a Spec House yesterday in Lake Arrowhead for asking price.... I took less than 45 days. I will admit... it surprised me... So maybe the market is still strong in certain places in sunny/snoweee So. Cali.:)
WOW dude...thats a surprise, in this market. Should have invested in snob-ville and made some money:eek:

[totenhosen]

Just sold a Spec House yesterday in Lake Arrowhead for asking price.... I took less than 45 days. I will admit... it surprised me... So maybe the market is still strong in certain places in sunny/snoweee So. Cali.:)
As anything it all depends on what your asking price was.

[scooooter7]

I've recently heard advertising for a 40 and 50 year mortgage loan. How would that fit into all this?

[talkinghead]

I'm not convinced that housing plays a big of role in the economy as some suggest - but we should know for certain in the next 6 months or so.
If the rise in foreclosures brings large banks down and then the market follows, we might be in trouble.
If not, either the foreclosures will slow down or our economy is diverse enough to hopefully handle a serious housing downturn. Ofcourse there are many other factors...
All I can say is I still see big screen LCD's and Plasmas leaving Costco in big SUV's and Pickup trucks.
If I was a Realtor (or related), I think I would enroll in nursing or truck driving school just in case.

[C-2]

Wow,
Fremont is DONE, shut down by the FDIC
New Century (Nations 2nd largest subprime lender) expected to go BK, or in the meathooks of the FDIC
Ameritrust Mortgage, DONE
Countrywide in trouble
I can't believe how quickly these lenders are folding. New update tomorrow?

[Kilrtoy]

Wow,
Fremont is DONE, shut down by the FDIC
New Century (Nations 2nd largest subprime lender) expected to go BK, or in the meathooks of the FDIC
Ameritrust Mortgage, DONE
Countrywide in trouble
I can't believe how quickly these lenders are folding. New update tomorrow?
:2purples: :2purples: :2purples: :2purples: :2purples: :2purples: :2purples:
WHOLLY SHIT BATMAN

[Seadog]

Housing is going great in this area. Probably all them refugees from Cali moving to Oklahoma. Some people from here moved to SoCal recently. After trying to find a place to live, they finally bought a large boat and are living on it. They love boating, it has more room than an efficiency apartment, and the loan and slip rental is less than an efficiency would cost. The best part is that they can go out in the bay on really short notice.

[robk]

Wow,
Fremont is DONE, shut down by the FDIC
New Century (Nations 2nd largest subprime lender) expected to go BK, or in the meathooks of the FDIC
Ameritrust Mortgage, DONE
Countrywide in trouble
I can't believe how quickly these lenders are folding. New update tomorrow?
Glad I didn't go to to work for New Century after being laid off from Ameriquest last year; quite a few people I knew did.
Ameriquest just did a partnership with Citigroup in which Citigroup is providing capital to ACC with the option to take over Argent and the servicing division in 9 months if they don't turn it around...
C-2, keep the updates coming.
Rob

[cdog]

Wow,
Fremont is DONE, shut down by the FDIC
New Century (Nations 2nd largest subprime lender) expected to go BK, or in the meathooks of the FDIC
Ameritrust Mortgage, DONE
Countrywide in trouble
I can't believe how quickly these lenders are folding. New update tomorrow?
On channel 5 news last night they were showin the employee's getting walked out of the building over at New Century.

[Mandelon]

I've never been so busy.

[ChumpChange]

Mostly southbay. Easlake and Otay Ranch especially. Conversions have been hit really hard. Conversions are down all over, lots going back to the banks unfinished. Check out any Maisel Presley project.....its gonna be really ugly for them.
A developer called me last week looking to finance a conversion project down in San Diego. I almost laughed at him over the phone.

[C-2]

Looks like New Century is on the fence – they stopped taking loans and are having a hard time funding those already in the pike. Their highest ranking board member stepped down today after losing $143M of his own cash.
So weÂ’ll see if the nations 3rd largest subprime lender goes BK on Friday.
And oh yeah, the CEO of DR Horton said 2007 is gonna suck:sqeyes: :sqeyes:

[locogringo]

OT OF THE TOP 25 SUBPRIME LENDERS HERE IS THE MOST CURRENT LIST OF DEFUNCT BANKS...
Wells Fargo... Still ok
HSBC Household Finance [rumored to be up for sale]
New Century [funding pulled; lending halted, lawsuits, criminal probes, impairments]
Countrywide... Still ok
Fremont General [2007-03-02; residential subprime activities ceased] Now Belly Up
Option One [H&R Block; up for sale]
Ameriquest [On life support from Citigroup; may end up acquired. Owned by ACC. Recently shut most offices and settled with 30 states over predatory lending]
WMC [subsidiary of GE Money] ... experiencing "technical difficulties"
Washington Mutual [some branch closures starting late 2006]
CitiFinancial... Still ok
First Franklin [acquired by Merrill Lynch from National City for $1.3bln] As of Friday 3-9, they are now bankrupt (First Franklin)
GMAC [Major layoffs in ResCap; Looming writedowns subprime loan portfolio and residual]
Acredited Home [is delaying '06 earnings filing]
BNC [Lehman bros. subsidiary]... shaky ground
ChaseHome Finance... Still ok
Novastar [serious impairments; likely no dividends in 2007, no taxable income through 2011; shareholder lawsuits]
OwnIt, 2006-12-07 [partially-owned by Merrill and BofA] Completely Shut Down
Aegis [recently closed two subprime operations centers]
MLN, 2006-12-29 [Much of the sales force has gone to Lehman]
EMC ... Still ok
ResMAE SHut down or bankrupt
FirstNLC ... Still ok
Decision One [owned by HSBC; rumored to be up for sale]
ECC/Encore [fire-sale bought out by Bear-Stearns]
Fieldstone [2007-02-16, bought by C-Bass]

[robk]

OT OF THE TOP 25 SUBPRIME LENDERS HERE IS THE MOST CURRENT LIST OF DEFUNCT BANKS...
Wells Fargo... Still ok
HSBC Household Finance [rumored to be up for sale]
New Century [funding pulled; lending halted, lawsuits, criminal probes, impairments]
Countrywide... Still ok
Fremont General [2007-03-02; residential subprime activities ceased] Now Belly Up
Option One [H&R Block; up for sale]
Ameriquest [On life support from Citigroup; may end up acquired. Owned by ACC. Recently shut most offices and settled with 30 states over predatory lending]
WMC [subsidiary of GE Money] ... experiencing "technical difficulties"
Washington Mutual [some branch closures starting late 2006]
CitiFinancial... Still ok
First Franklin [acquired by Merrill Lynch from National City for $1.3bln] As of Friday 3-9, they are now bankrupt (First Franklin)
GMAC [Major layoffs in ResCap; Looming writedowns subprime loan portfolio and residual]
Acredited Home [is delaying '06 earnings filing]
BNC [Lehman bros. subsidiary]... shaky ground
ChaseHome Finance... Still ok
Novastar [serious impairments; likely no dividends in 2007, no taxable income through 2011; shareholder lawsuits]
OwnIt, 2006-12-07 [partially-owned by Merrill and BofA] Completely Shut Down
Aegis [recently closed two subprime operations centers]
MLN, 2006-12-29 [Much of the sales force has gone to Lehman]
EMC ... Still ok
ResMAE SHut down or bankrupt
FirstNLC ... Still ok
Decision One [owned by HSBC; rumored to be up for sale]
ECC/Encore [fire-sale bought out by Bear-Stearns]
Fieldstone [2007-02-16, bought by C-Bass]
Keep your eyes on Ameriquest, folks. Interesting events ahead.
Rob

[Wheeler]

It's happening.
I posted a year and a half ago about it but got hammered a little on the subject by the pie in the sky RE group so I just shut up.
Way too many bad quality loans and way too rapidly and falsely inflated property values over way too long a period of time. Not a real hard equation to get to the end result which is now becoming reality. When the majority of people can't afford homes there's a problem. Historically all the rapid and extreme value run ups have correction periods. The big question now is, will the rest the economy follow real estate?
I have an opinion on it, but I think I'll just shut up in advance this time. ;)
I'm with you, about a year and a half ago, I sold the house in OC, sold the havasu lots, paid off the river house and bought an 80 acre ranch. No more mortgage payments. I did not know what the market would do, and did not want to get caught, with my pants down.

[OverKill]

You all can hate me for saying this or not but the truth speaks for it's self. BUSH has busted the Moral of this Country. Need I say anymore???

[Wheeler]

You all can hate me for saying this or not but the truth speaks for it's self. BUSH has busted the Moral of this Country. Need I say anymore???
And Slick Willey, (bill clinton) spent all the money (surplus) that reaganomics created, and GW inherited a recession.
Subject: The Pope, a Republican & a Democrat
The Pope took a couple of days off to visit the mountains of Alaska for some sight-seeing. He was cruising along the campground in the Popemobile when there was a frantic commotion just at the edge of the woods.
A helpless Democrat, wearing sandals, shorts, a "Save the Whales" hat, and a "To Hell with Bush" T-shirt, was screaming while struggling frantically, thrashing around trying to free himself from the grasp of a 10-foot grizzly.
As the Pope watched horrified, a group of Republican loggers came racing up. One quickly fired a .44 magnum into the bear's chest . The other two reached up and pulled the bleeding, semiconscious Democrat from the bear's grasp.Then using long clubs, the three loggers finished off the bear and two of them threw it onto the bed of their truck while the other tenderly placed the injured Democrat in the back seat.
As they prepared to leave, the Pope summoned them to come over. "I give you my blessing for your brave actions!" he told them. "I heard there was a bitter hatred between Republican loggers and Democratic Environmental activists but now I've seen with my own eyes that this is not true."
As the Pope drove off, one of the loggers asked his buddies "Who was that guy?" "It was the Pope," another replied. "He's in direct contact with heaven and has access to all wisdom."
"Well," the logger said, "he may have access to all wisdom but he sure doesn't know anything about bear hunting! By the way, is the bait holding up, or do we need to go back toMassachusetts and snatch another one?"
Remember, We are all Americans, now Act like it!
=

[bigq]

You all can hate me for saying this or not but the truth speaks for it's self. BUSH has busted the Moral of this Country. Need I say anymore???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHHAAHHAHAH!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Huge revenues for the government, low unemployment rate, federal debt down....yea I see your point.
Some might say Greenspan created this situation with the housing market.

[Mandelon]

Some of those lenders owe me money :mad:

[YeLLowBoaT]

Some of those lenders owe me money :mad:
And if they go under there is a very good chance you will not get paid... Back int he 60s my grandfather was working for a large( 300+ employee) contractor... working for western savings and loan. 2 years of great work, then 6 months of boarding up windows when they went under. in the 60s they owed the company like 300k.

[C-2]

What sucks when companies goes BK is that if they owe you money, you’ll have to fight to get it; and even worse, if they paid you for services 90 days prior to them filing BK – the trustee will send you a nastygram, telling you to return the money or they will sue (and they do/will under the 90-day preferential transfer rule of BK).
You know how bad that sucks, the trustee (a ballbauster lawfirm) sends you a demand, telling you to cough up money that has long since been spent?
ThatÂ’s why peeps in the construction biz, in turbulent times such as this, need to watch the age on their receivables, and stay on top of them.
And it looks like WMC is starting their meltdown.
-- At this point, I think itÂ’s safe to say with the exception of Wells, WAMU and Countrywide, everybody else is going down.
BTW – great joke Wheeler, got a chuckle out of that :)

[shueman]

Some of those lenders owe me money :mad:
Well, that SUCKS...:mad: :eek:

[Tom Slick]

ResMAE should be just fine, as they announced that they have reached an agreement with an affiliate of Citadel Investment Group to purchase certain assets of ResMAE. This will give ResMAE the strength they need to continue through their reorganization process. They will continue to do business as ResMAE Mortgage Corp. My chicks' an AE for ResMAE and has been getting New Century and Freemont loans right and left from her brokers offices.

[robk]

Preliminary inside report says Ameriquest just did a 50% layoff... More accurate news to come.
Rob

[OutCole'd]

Anything new on GMAC? I have a grip with them in their Demand notes program.

[Jyruiz]

Preliminary inside report says Ameriquest just did a 50% layoff... More accurate news to come.
Rob
I use to work there, still have some friends that do. They are in IT, but have already layed off some of the IT staff, one friend included.

[robk]

I use to work there, still have some friends that do. They are in IT, but have already layed off some of the IT staff, one friend included.
Right on, I worked there too and still have friends there, same as you. My gf is in IT and was laid off just a few minutes ago. Actually IT was pretty much wiped out altogether, including some entire departments.
Rob

[Baja Big Dog]

You all can hate me for saying this or not but the truth speaks for it's self. BUSH has busted the Moral of this Country. Need I say anymore???
Well congratulations....not only completely off the subject but you just showed your ass.....what kind of asinine statement is that...wait don't answer it now, start a new thread Mr Queen Creek AZ and watch your ass get jumped on..........Good Luck!!
I cant believe that I even wasted my time on this!!:sqeyes:

[Jyruiz]

Right on, I used to work there too and still have friends there, same as you. My gf is in IT and was laid off just a few minutes ago. Actually IT was pretty much wiped out altogether, including some entire departments.
Rob
I worked at the Orage location, the building across the way from the Main Place mall. Where did you work at and what location does your GF work at?

[robk]

So you were at 1100 T&C then? I was there as well, at most of the building at the block, and finished out at the Pond. My gf just moved from 1100 T&C to 333 City last year.

[Jyruiz]

So you were at 1100 T&C then? I was there as well, at most of the building at the block, and finished out at the Pond. My gf just moved from 1100 T&C to 333 City last year.
Yes I was a 1100 T&C, I left in 2000.

[CA Stu]

Did Bush make all those "loan agents" and borrowers falsify documents?
GMAFB
I have to believe that all the folks that this is catching by surprise are either dumb or young. Or both. :D
Here's another question for the "pie in the sky" crowd (Nice one Rex)... Do people really not understand that lines of credit and refinancing your real estate is actually borrowing money, going into debt?
The dam is just leaking at this point, but when the dam bursts, there's going to be a lot of RE awful cheap out there...
Thanks
CA Stu <-- No 2nd, no HELOC. :D

[Baja Big Dog]

I worked at the Orage location, the building across the way from the Main Place mall. Where did you work at and what location does your GF work at?
Just had a buddy stop by...he worked there, said they laid him and 300 out of 400 people off today..................

[Jyruiz]

Just had a buddy stop by...he worked there, said they laid him and 300 out of 400 people off today..................
Sucks to hear bro, but that is why I work for a wine and spirits distributor now. When times are good, people drink, and when times are bad, people drink just as much.

[robk]

Just had a buddy stop by...he worked there, said they laid him and 300 out of 400 people off today..................
From what I'm hearing (from a VP) it was something along the lines of 50% enterprise-wide... so around 4k.
Rob

[HM]

Did Bush make all those "loan agents" and borrowers falsify documents?
GMAFB
I have to believe that all the folks that this is catching by surprise are either dumb or young. Or both. :D
Here's another question for the "pie in the sky" crowd (Nice one Rex)... Do people really not understand that lines of credit and refinancing your real estate is actually borrowing money, going into debt?
The dam is just leaking at this point, but when the dam bursts, there's going to be a lot of RE awful cheap out there...
Thanks
CA Stu <-- No 2nd, no HELOC. :D
Look at Stu, defending Bush, and shit. :D

[Baja Big Dog]

Sucks to hear bro, but that is why I work for a wine and spirits distributor now. When times are good, people drink, and when times are bad, people drink just as much.
AHHHHH the perfect life....best of both worlds

[CampbellCarl]

Received this today......"Your $250,000.00 Mortgage with Wells Fargo can be restructured to a 10 Yr fixed payment at only $53.00. This is not a typo error. Your payment rate is only 1/4% and is fixed for 10 years. Call today and have no house payment until April 2008 (that's 12 months)"
Fine print sez rate is 1/4%/6.75% APR. Deferred interest will accrue.
WTF? These guys on crack or what?
CC

[dmontzsta]

Sucks to hear bro, but that is why I work for a wine and spirits distributor now. When times are good, people drink, and when times are bad, people drink just as much.
I hear things are a little slow there right now though, is that true?
Maybe people cannot afford to drink either. :D

[sdpm]

Alot of things might slow down, but I don't think Drinking is one of them!:D

[Jyruiz]

I hear things are a little slow there right now though, is that true?
Maybe people cannot afford to drink either. :D
I don't think so, right now the main building (in Cerritos) is going thru a major remodel, inside and outside. Here in IT, we are busy with all of the moves and infrastructure changes.

[Jyruiz]

Alot of things might slow down, but I don't think Drinking is one of them!:D
Thats right, when times are rough, people just drink more of the cheap stuff.:D

[sdpm]

Damn it. Now I'm thursty!

[Jesster]

You all can hate me for saying this or not but the truth speaks for it's self. BUSH has busted the Moral of this Country. Need I say anymore???
F'n Moron

[Deano]

Need I say anymore???
No thanks..you're an idiot. You made that clear enough!! and it's "its" not it's...jagoff..

[CA Stu]

Look at Stu, defending Bush, and shit. :D
Why do you hate accepting responsibility for one's actions? :D
Thanks
CA Stu

[CA Stu]

No thanks..you're an idiot. You made that clear enough!! and it's "its" not it's...jagoff..
+1,
and it's "morale" or "morals" not "Moral", Overkill, you "moron".

[Deano]

+1,
and it's "morale" or "morals" not "Moral", Overkill, you "moron".
What, you think you are some type of moral being or something? I mean, come on, give the guy some moral support already!! :D :) :D
You would think that being a person from left side, he would at least be an edumakated derelict like the rest of thems people that teach our children!
(I shouldn't talk shit. I'm almost as bad:D )

[bigq]

:eek: :eek: :eek:
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.
"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.
"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops.
"It is going to be a huge mess," said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia.
Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most.
Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown.
"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said.
"When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned."
The fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s and has focused on commodities since 1998, said the crisis would spread to emerging markets which he said now faced a prolonged bear run.
"When you have a financial crisis, it reverberates in other financial markets, especially in those with speculative excess," he said.
"Right now, there is huge speculative excess in emerging markets around the world. There will be a lot of money coming out of emerging markets.
"I've sold out of emerging markets except for China," said Rogers, long a prominent China bull.
Even in China, the world's fastest expanding economy, Rogers said stocks were overvalued and could go down 30-40 percent.
But he added: "China is one of the few countries in the world where I'm willing to sit out a 30-40 percent decline."
The last stock market bubble to burst was the dot-com craze which sparked a crash from March 2000 to October 2002.
When the last bubble burst in Japan, said Rogers, stock prices went down 85 percent despite the country's high savings rate and huge balance of payment surplus.
"This is the end of the liquidity party," said Rogers. "Some emerging markets will go down 80 percent, some will go down 50 percent. Some will most probably collapse."

[Sportin' Wood]

Last year I read a book called "the great depression" by Robert S. Mcelvain to greater understand how it happened and if it could happen again.
Could it happen again?
There where many things that caused it, one could compare Margin buying of stock market investment to that of the Margin buying of homes. I for one see a direct relationship to this. Failure of banks caused by this is evident in the subprime world. but IMHO there is a few things missing from the equation. There where a number of reasons we had The great depression here is one.
Maldistribution of wealth.
In 1929 approx 24000 families in the top 0.1 percent had an aggragate income equal to the bottom 42%. Stated in absolute numbers those 24,000 families had income equal to 11.5 M. poor Americans. Fully 71% of all American families in What was generally regarded as the most properous year the country and world had ever known had incomes under $2500. At the other extream the 24,000 richest families enjoyed annual incomes in excess of $100,000 and 513 American families reported incomes over $1,000,000.
Families could only purchase so many goods, The top earning families still only need one toster oven. Thats why things like DVD players are dispolsable now.
Personally I see this as the case in China. I am no prophet but I have an opinion. I think The roots of this country's trouble go back to the new deal and the brain washing of consumerism that has kept the country afloat since its inseption. We have focused on consuming without regard for production. If America would just get over itself and put in a hard days work with out lawsuits, union demands, OSHA, Govt control of business and learn that a job is a privilage and not a right we could build a country that could rival that of any society the world has ever known. I fear that will never happen.
The so called "MAN" puts his pants on just like every one else does in this age. Gone is the fat cat on the hill in a 3 piece suit smokin a cigar. Gov't has taxed and regulated that right out of business.
This "Panic" "depresion" Recession" or Correction as they now call it will hurt me as it will all of us but I'm glad its finnaly here. We needed it to humble us all. Get up America, look in the mirror tell your self your a winner and go out and do a hard days labor!

[Howie Feltersnatch]

Of course it could happen again. And it will happen again many times over. If you look at history (I'm talking real history, not just 10, 20 or 50 years), all economies rise, prosper, fall, then disappear. As with the superpowers of the past 3000 years, the US continues the same pattern - get rich, outsource the real work (mfg, construction, etc), overspend on military and entitlements, go broke, lose control of their colonial holdings (Rome lost Western Europe, then everything, the US could loose strategic allies, then certain states, then everything). Don't laugh - the US split in 2 barely 200 years ago, it could happen again and probably will at some point in the future.
Enjoy it while it lasts.

[LhcBrad]

Alot of good information in the above posts. Time will only tell, but i agree with quite alot of this.Although there seems to be more and more people with money these days.How much of it is loaned money i dont know.

[totenhosen]

I'm liquid and trimmed my R/E holdings down to two properties, my primary residence and my house in Phoneix, which I would move into if I move out of LA. Both have 30 year fixed notes and both do/will cash flow positively. I'm waiting for the deals!

[talkinghead]

For the sake of discussion:
As far as the production of goods goes, does it make sense to make something in the US at a higher cost when it could be made elsewhere and imported for cheaper?
This (importing cheaper goods) frees up capital for other endeavors.
Even if you do it for the sake of saving jobs, it will never work (in the long run) in the age of free trade and a global economy.
At the end of the day, people will buy what's cheaper in most cases regardless of where it's made.
There is a part of me that thinks for certain segments of the US work force, working 'hard' or 'harder' will only get you so far. If a company thinks it can get the same job done for cheaper, sooner or later they will go that route - via outsourcing or even H1B's. The market will demand this or the company will go out of business.
Take Fleetwood Rv's for example, they recently announced some of their production will move to Mexico. If they pass the labor cost savings to the consumer, other RV manufacturers will somehow have to lower their prices as well - which likely will mean moving production to Mexico.
I remember Ross Perot with a chart showing that the #1 area of job growth in this country was gov't jobs - which in general are a financial burden on society. On an anecdotal level I think the goverment is severely bloated with goverment workers.
On the other hand, America has an advanced economy that is the Gold Standard in the world. But if we don't innovate, we are in trouble.

[totenhosen]

Take Fleetwoord Rv's for example, they recently announced some of their production will move to Mexico. If they pass the labor cost savings to the consumer, other RV manufacturers will somehow have to lower their prices as well - which likely will mean moving production to Mexico.
On the other hand, America has an advanced economy that is the Gold Standard in the world. But if we don't innovate, we are in trouble.
Problem is companies don't pass the savings cost onto consumers. Typically it will yeild higher profit margins which is what investors and Wall Street want. So I still try to buy American made products as much as possible.
Very true!

[talkinghead]

Your right, they probably won't pass the savings to consumers. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this move to Mexico will affect the RV industry...
It may keep Fleetwood in business (increased stock price, etc...), but I'm not clear on how much pressure this will bring to other RV makers.
If other RV manufacturers see Fleetwood having huge profit margins, that may send some of them south.
But that would equate to a huge investment on the part of the manufacturer - new factory, etc..
On the other hand, the average Fleetwood worker was making $20/hour in Rialto, in Mexico it will be $4/hour according to the Press Enterprise.

[totenhosen]

Your right, they probably won't pass the savings to consumers. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this move to Mexico will affect the RV industry...
It may keep Fleetwood in business (increased stock price, etc...), but I'm not clear on how much pressure this will bring to other RV makers.
If other RV manufacturers see Fleetwood having huge profit margins, that may send some of them south.
But that would equate to a huge investment on the part of the manufacturer - new factory, etc..
On the other hand, the average Fleetwood worker was making $20/hour in Rialto, in Mexico it will be $4/hour according to the Press Enterprise.
Not to change the topic too much but has NAFTA really benefited the US consumer or worker?

[Mtg Pro]

Freddie Mac just quit buying sub prime loans, so who wants them now....the market for that paper just got a lot smaller.....making it harder for anyone with an NOD to refi.
The GSE's were never big buyers of this paper.

[Howie Feltersnatch]

Nafta has done noting for US workers except eliminate their jobs. Speaking of Ross Perot he also made many references to " That Giant Sucking Sound" of US jobs being sucked out of the US south of the border.
One ironic byproduct is that it has created the same situation in Mexico in a few cases where manufacturing was moved to Mexico in the mid 90's and then moved to China in the 2000's leaving Mexican workers laid off and wondering how to survive - welcome to Corporate America, you're nothing but a statistic - easily eliminated and forgotten.
While manufacturing is virtually gone from the US economy, CEO pay has skyrocketed over the past 10 years while average salaries have remained relatively flat. In 1995 the average CEO made 275 times what a minimum wage worker made. In 2005 it was 821 times the minimum wage. In 2007 CEO retirement packages for the top 25 fortune 500 corporations will average more than 2.17 million per year with Exxon Mobile's Lee Raymond receiving more than 8.1 million dollars per year - that's every year for the rest of his life.
How many stories of companies going bankrupt and dumping their employee pension plans immediately to "save money"? A couple of years ago AMR threatened bankruptcy and demanded wage concessions from their unions while at the same time giving out big bonuses to senior management - the guys that "managed" them into bankruptcy in the first place.
The US is is where the UK was at the end of the 19th century. Transitioning away from a manufacturing and production based economy to a banking and service economy. While good for the very few at the top, the lack of economic output eventually erodes the economy to a point that the military and entitlement budgets cannot be sustained and global influence begins to wane.
Which economy looks more promising over the next 25 years the US or China?

[wsuwrhr]

When we cease to produce anything, we will have nothing left to sell.
Brian
Nafta has done noting for US workers except eliminate their jobs. Speaking of Ross Perot he also made many references to " That Giant Sucking Sound" of US jobs being sucked out of the US south of the border.
One ironic byproduct is that it has created the same situation in Mexico in a few cases where manufacturing was moved to Mexico in the mid 90's and then moved to China in the 2000's leaving Mexican workers laid off and wondering how to survive - welcome to Corporate America, you're nothing but a statistic - easily eliminated and forgotten.
While manufacturing is virtually gone from the US economy, CEO pay has skyrocketed over the past 10 years while average salaries have remained relatively flat. In 1995 the average CEO made 275 times what a minimum wage worker made. In 2005 it was 821 times the minimum wage. In 2007 CEO retirement packages for the top 25 fortune 500 corporations will average more than 2.17 million per year with Exxon Mobile's Lee Raymond receiving more than 8.1 million dollars per year - that's every year for the rest of his life.
How many stories of companies going bankrupt and dumping their employee pension plans immediately to "save money"? A couple of years ago AMR threatened bankruptcy and demanded wage concessions from their unions while at the same time giving out big bonuses to senior management - the guys that "managed" them into bankruptcy in the first place.
The US is is where the UK was at the end of the 19th century. Transitioning away from a manufacturing and production based economy to a banking and service economy. While good for the very few at the top, the lack of economic output eventually erodes the economy to a point that the military and entitlement budgets cannot be sustained and global influence begins to wane.
Which economy looks more promising over the next 25 years the US or China?

[bigq]

When we cease to produce anything, we will have nothing left to sell.
Brian
So true and what happens from a security standpoint? We will be totally screwed if we need to make tanks, planes and bombs with nowhere to make them, I guess we could just import that also?:confused:

[My Man's Sportin' Wood]

Which economy looks more promising over the next 25 years the US or China?
India's

[talkinghead]

Truer words have never been said Howie, and the thing is it scares the hell out of me - primarily for future generations - and I'm not sure there's a damn thing we can do about it.
And I agree 100%, we do seem to be going the way of the UK.