another Real Estate article, more facts, less rumor....

[AirtimeLavey]

Interesting article. It's a strange market with interesting dynamics that are frustrating many. Affordability's at the heart of it all.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-ex-homes13apr13,0,5017484.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[C-2]

Yeah, WTF is going on?
Is it good, bad, picking up or tanking. I thought by now something would have played out to give some direction - but apparently not yet?

[AirtimeLavey]

Yeah, WTF is going on?
Is it good, bad, picking up or tanking. I thought by now something would have played out to give some direction - but apparently not yet?
It's just strange. Employment #s are strong, income is up, int. rates steady, home prices are steady, but home sales are WAY down. The sub-prime market fiasco cut out a chunk of the pool of buyers - and that's how it should of been, but unfortunately those recent years' practices artificially drove up prices.
Banks are talking about agressively working w/homeowners to prevent foreclosures and walk aways like happened in the 90s. Although, as some on the boards here see, there's still a huge jump in foreclosures. Many short sales are being declined.
Builders are planning smaller, less expensive housing, while aggressively trying to sell off current inventory.
This is going to take a while to work itself out.

[cdog]

Supply and demand. Sellers lower your price and homes will sell. Otherwise the stand off will continue and the sellers will take less $$$ later.

[PBOCOP]

The repo's are amazing right now. Everyone is losing their houses !! It's sad though. I remember when everyone bought their houses a year or two ago, and loan people were making tons of money with all the creative loans. Interest only loans, ARM's, 1st loans with 2nds for downpayments, etc.
Now all that BS is screwing tons of people.
My wife is a broker and used to run about 5 repo's for sale at a time, along with her normal listings.
Right now she has over 50 repo's listed !! They are selling too, but people are trying to pay the lower prices of course. Sad though having to kick all these people out of their houses.
I think it will stay level for a bit now. A little down, a little up. Nothing major.
PBO

[rollin24/7]

I think the MEDIA has ALOT to do with how people think the market is going. Bottom line is, if you want to buy a house then buy a house. Don't wait, just buy it. How many people do you know that have told you those famous words:"man I should have bought back then" Real estate always cycles and I don't think you can go wrong. It' just like today when I open up the Marketplace Section in the Orange County Register: In big bold black letters: Real Estate Prices to Decline in 07. Then when you read the arltice in small print it said they thought that it could decline up to .7%.........................seriously, .7% that's it. But of course that was in small print that most people probably didn't read. Gotta love the media.

[AirtimeLavey]

I think the MEDIA has ALOT to do with how people think the market is going. Bottom line is, if you want to buy a house then buy a house. Don't wait, just buy it. How many people do you know that have told you those famous words:"man I should have bought back then" Real estate always cycles and I don't think you can go wrong. It' just like today when I open up the Marketplace Section in the Orange County Register: In big bold black letters: Real Estate Prices to Decline in 07. Then when you read the arltice in small print it said they thought that it could decline up to .7%.........................seriously, .7% that's it. But of course that was in small print that most people probably didn't read. Gotta love the media.
Yep, gotta read the articles clearly. Understand what they're really talking about, and take it all in context. The Daily Bulletin (the paper in the IE) has been running some hype articles quoting 20 something year olds, with no exp. in RE as to what the market's going to do, and what they're strategy is. Please. :rolleyes: It's like the blogs of the past 5 years predicting the bust. Still waiting. Sure there's signs not to be ignored, I'm just not one to buy quickly into hype.

[Mandelon]

No doubt foreclosures are way up and the rates are accelerating. It will likely continue for two to three years.
I think affordability is the problem. the easy money loans allowed people to overpay for properties. When more than 40% of your income goes to your home payments, and taxes things are out of whack. Prices got too high, and a correction is unavoidable.

[C-2]

Still waiting. .
Not to get into this debate again, but what isn't busted right now?
I don't think any of us doomer gloomers were predicting a depression - but what happened in the early 90's is well, happening right now. For the everyday person, life mostly goes on as normal.
Rates at historic lows - I see plenty of 10 year old trust deeds at 10-12%, which was the norm. Can you imagine 10-12% on a 550K house in OC (as if there are any). $5500 month mpayment, sans insurance and $500 propery taxes - those are hotballer payments!!!:sqeyes: :sqeyes:

[Rvr Swpr]

imo, the numbers,sales,permits,starts,etc. are being compared to last year.The last few years numbers are hard to beat.

[Boozer]

Unless you're getting a SMOKING deal and by smoking deal I mean 15-20%+ below market I don't think that right now is a good time to buy. There are many people who are in the industry that are going to say otherwise but they are only doing so because they have too. If the RE agents said to you that home values would deppreciate 5% or more over the next 3-5 years you wouldn't buy a house from them and they wouldn't be able to make the payments on theirs.
California hasn't felt the full affects of the "bust" but I'm willing to bet it will. I'm in Denver and I can tell you that there was a real "bust" here, it's not some made up story, it is the real deal and it is happening.
As of current Colorado is leading the nation in Foreclosures there are 6 houses that have been foreclosed within a 2 block radius of mine. There's at LEAST 1 home for sale on every street you can drive down. Homes that were selling in 2004 for 200,000 would be lucky to get 175,000 today. Condo's have been the hardest hit, a condo that in 2004 would have sold for 125,000 would be lucky to get 80,000 today. Try getting a refi on that 100%financing arm thats about to adjust when your now 25,000+ upside down in your home.
I know several people in California that bought homes they couldn't afford. People with a household income of $65,000 and purchased homes that were $350,000 because they were approved on option arms for that amount. All of my friends that did this are more then likely going to lose their homes because there is no way in hell a person could make the payment on a $350,000 note bringing in $5500 pre-tax a month if the loan is a conventional fixed. Not to mention all these people with the option arms have been making the minimum payment, so think about all that negative equity they have accumulated through that.
Before you go and buy a house take this into consideration. It doesn't take a Real Estate expert to understand how Real Estate works. The RE market changes very gradually, nothing happens overnight but when a shift does occur the market seems to go that direction for a long period of time. California's market was on an incline for what 7-8 years? The value of homes slowly started to rise and then followed that trend for several years. Today the values of homes in many markets has declined and California will more then likely follow suit which means the values WILL decline and they will do so for a few years. It's no longer a matter of IF it is now a matter of WHEN and FOR HOW LONG??
But then again... What do I know. I'm just one of those 20 somethings that thinks he knows everything.

[framer1]

Heard on the news today the government is talking about bailing out the homeowners that took out those lame loans. Looks like us taxpayers are going to be on the hook for the losses:mad: Big shock

[AirtimeLavey]

No doubt foreclosures are way up and the rates are accelerating. It will likely continue for two to three years.
I think affordability is the problem. the easy money loans allowed people to overpay for properties. When more than 40% of your income goes to your home payments, and taxes things are out of whack. Prices got too high, and a correction is unavoidable.
I agree about the affordability. Seems a correction is overdue, but other than the foreclosures (which will have some impact on the overall market), as this article and other data shows a flat, not bust market so far.
Not to get into this debate again, but what isn't busted right now?
I don't think any of us doomer gloomers were predicting a depression - but what happened in the early 90's is well, happening right now. For the everyday person, life mostly goes on as normal.
Rates at historic lows - I see plenty of 10 year old trust deeds at 10-12%, which was the norm. Can you imagine 10-12% on a 550K house in OC (as if there are any). $5500 month mpayment, sans insurance and $500 propery taxes - those are hotballer payments!!!:sqeyes: :sqeyes:
Prices are flat, not bust. Int. rates still reasonable. This isn't the early 90's, in many ways. I'm speaking mostly about CA. Our economy is dif., and banks having gone through it once, are looking at not going through it again. Not that it won't be sorta like that, but won't be as bad.
Unless you're getting a SMOKING deal and by smoking deal I mean 15-20%+ below market I don't think that right now is a good time to buy. There are many people who are in the industry that are going to say otherwise but they are only doing so because they have too. If the RE agents said to you that home values would deppreciate 5% or more over the next 3-5 years you wouldn't buy a house from them and they wouldn't be able to make the payments on theirs.
California hasn't felt the full affects of the "bust" but I'm willing to bet it will. I'm in Denver and I can tell you that there was a real "bust" here, it's not some made up story, it is the real deal and it is happening.
As of current Colorado is leading the nation in Foreclosures there are 6 houses that have been foreclosed within a 2 block radius of mine. There's at LEAST 1 home for sale on every street you can drive down. Homes that were selling in 2004 for 200,000 would be lucky to get 175,000 today. Condo's have been the hardest hit, a condo that in 2004 would have sold for 125,000 would be lucky to get 80,000 today. Try getting a refi on that 100%financing arm thats about to adjust when your now 25,000+ upside down in your home.
I know several people in California that bought homes they couldn't afford. People with a household income of $65,000 and purchased homes that were $350,000 because they were approved on option arms for that amount. All of my friends that did this are more then likely going to lose their homes because there is no way in hell a person could make the payment on a $350,000 note bringing in $5500 pre-tax a month if the loan is a conventional fixed. Not to mention all these people with the option arms have been making the minimum payment, so think about all that negative equity they have accumulated through that.
Before you go and buy a house take this into consideration. It doesn't take a Real Estate expert to understand how Real Estate works. The RE market changes very gradually, nothing happens overnight but when a shift does occur the market seems to go that direction for a long period of time. California's market was on an incline for what 7-8 years? The value of homes slowly started to rise and then followed that trend for several years. Today the values of homes in many markets has declined and California will more then likely follow suit which means the values WILL decline and they will do so for a few years. It's no longer a matter of IF it is now a matter of WHEN and FOR HOW LONG??
But then again... What do I know. I'm just one of those 20 somethings that thinks he knows everything.
Nothing against 20 somethings...but gotta disagree with some of what you said. No realtor would deny that at least a 5% decline is possible in the near term. RE's cyclical. The quesion is how deep will it go. My point is it hasn't gone deep, yet. You want to wait. Where do you think int. rates will be? Buying now for long term, is not a mistake, whether you take that from me, or your grandpa. You're in Denver. #1 in the country for foreclosures. I would expect your impression of what you see on your block to be bad. I'm just saying don't go for the hype or rumors of what you hear about what people "think" is going on in your block. Get the facts. Just my opionion, and I wouldn't want to tell anyone how to live their lives...good luck with your investment strategies.
Heard on the news today the government is talking about bailing out the homeowners that took out those lame loans. Looks like us taxpayers are going to be on the hook for the losses:mad: Big shock
I've heard that, too. Problem being argued is that this also bails out the lenders that essentially created the mess along with the borrowers that lied their a-- off to get loans they couldn't afford.
When and if the sh-- hits the fan, the facts will bear it. I'm not banking on rumor and speculation from people who think they know what their neighbor did. My bet is the market will cycle down for a while, but ultimately, that will be a good thing. I wish it wouldn't because I'd a flipping feind right now, otherwise.

[rollin24/7]

Prices have adjusted, not busted. Take a look around Orange County Irvine area...they are still selling and building brand new SFR's and they are starting in the $800's(doesn't quite seem like a bust price to me).
Also in Murrieta Lennar homes is building a community named Spencers Crossing with a total of 1600 new homes. No construction has slowed down, the models are now open, and they are still selling them like crazy, and after all is said and done (upgrades, landscaping) they are still selling in the $500,000's for the smaller model. If I was a betting man, I would watch what the big time builders do....I think they have a little more insight on what's going on, since they have way more to lose. Ok time for a cold one:D

[3 daytona`s]

There are For Sale signs EVERYWHERE the Laughlin Ranch is a disaster there are on line auctions for New Property never lived in,going for approx.75% of whatever.Builders have stopped investing,the thinking around here when gets to 50% let`s go. I do not feel a long way off.Not wishing bad on anyone,but there was a greed factor here big time and there is going to be a correction that many are having a difficult time accepting.

[bigq]

Prices up but so is inventory (they leave that part out). Affordability is gonna be a huge factor along with the subprime companies. This has only just begun. Everyone talks about a 500k house like the guy next door could afford it, I mean really afford it. The percentage is not there. That being said you could probably pick up a house for a decent price in the next few months.;)

[C-2]

If I was a betting man, I would watch what the big time builders do....I think they have a little more insight on what's going on, since they have way more to lose.
"I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year,'' D.R. Horton Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said at a Citigroup Inc. conference in New York. ``Our future is not as bright as what we would like it to be.''
Uhhhh.........nevermind
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sorry, just had to:D
---------------
Those who have a vested interest in the industry will never admit it's over, even when it's over.
The slide has just started, to say it is nothing like the 90's is way premature. In the early 90's, it took about 3-5 years for it to peak. In this economy, it seems to have happened overnight. Find ONE quote, source or statistic which reflects the foreclsoure spiral is over. It aint out there. :)

[Sportin' Wood]

Prices have adjusted, not busted. Take a look around Orange County Irvine area...they are still selling and building brand new SFR's and they are starting in the $800's(doesn't quite seem like a bust price to me).
Also in Murrieta Lennar homes is building a community named Spencers Crossing with a total of 1600 new homes. No construction has slowed down, the models are now open, and they are still selling them like crazy, and after all is said and done (upgrades, landscaping) they are still selling in the $500,000's for the smaller model. If I was a betting man, I would watch what the big time builders do....I think they have a little more insight on what's going on, since they have way more to lose. Ok time for a cold one:D
Don't look to Lein-ner for a handle on the market.

[bigq]

Prices have adjusted, not busted. Take a look around Orange County Irvine area...they are still selling and building brand new SFR's and they are starting in the $800's(doesn't quite seem like a bust price to me).
Also in Murrieta Lennar homes is building a community named Spencers Crossing with a total of 1600 new homes. No construction has slowed down, the models are now open, and they are still selling them like crazy, and after all is said and done (upgrades, landscaping) they are still selling in the $500,000's for the smaller model. If I was a betting man, I would watch what the big time builders do....I think they have a little more insight on what's going on, since they have way more to lose. Ok time for a cold one:D
Maybe have a gander at what they are telling wall street and not Murrieta for the "big time builder".
I received a recorded sales pitch yesterday form some realto lady stating that I qualify fo rthe new 1% loan. I thought they were getting rid of these things.