Where are they going?(RE ?)

[Sportin' Wood]

So I'm cruising around looking at houses and boy do I see a lot of red and Orange stickers in the windows of homes with dead grass. I think its plain to see that the housing slump is not going to rebound in May like the Building Industry Association would have led me to believe.:D
I'm not looking to beat that dead horse, but I'm interested where all the people are going? The Media and the Fed Chair seem to be a little behind the times when it comes to this stuff, so who else to ask then the mighty all knowing Hot Boat forum?
Are the people moving out of state? are they living in Cars? are they renting?
Are rents going up? Supply and demand tells me that rentals are going to be a good investment while the poor SOB's that lost homes need a place to live.
Part two of my question.
Simply What would you do to get the economy back on track if you where the Fed Chair?
Maybe its right where it needs to be? That is an option as well.
Popcorn free thread;)

[sleekcraft80]

What I have read is that alot of people are moving out of state like Nev,Az, Nm, Id, becaus it is cheaper to live. Also I read that most of the mexican people that are leaving are going to the mid west. Colorado is where a lot of people are going also.

[OutCole'd]

I don't think thier moving to Vegas, the market's dead here also.

[sleekcraft80]

I don't think thier moving to Vegas, the market's dead here also.
What I heard about Nv was around the mesquite area and Lake Mead and the smaller towns and the fact there is no property tax.

[That Guy]

It is just cyclical....in 1, 3, 5 years etc...we will all be going "wow look at how my house value has risen...":) You just have decide for yourself if you think we have bottomed out....or if we have further to go. Corrections have historically happened and will continue to do so. Either wait it out, or jump on what you perceive to be some opportunities...just my .02:)

[framer1]

So I'm cruising around looking at houses and boy do I see a lot of red and Orange stickers in the windows of homes with dead grass. I think its plain to see that the housing slump is not going to rebound in May like the Building Industry Association would have led me to believe.:D
I'm not looking to beat that dead horse, but I'm interested where all the people are going? The Media and the Fed Chair seem to be a little behind the times when it comes to this stuff, so who else to ask then the mighty all knowing Hot Boat forum?
Are the people moving out of state? are they living in Cars? are they renting?
Are rents going up? Supply and demand tells me that rentals are going to be a good investment while the poor SOB's that lost homes need a place to live.
Part two of my question.
Simply What would you do to get the economy back on track if you where the Fed Chair?
Maybe its right where it needs to be? That is an option as well.
Popcorn free thread;)
I know some people who have had their house on the market for months with not one looker. I don't see it getting better anytime soon. I really think the sellers need to lower their prices to move them. Hopefully that would lower the inventory enough to get things moving again. Probably a little to simplify:idea: Seems to me the houses that are priced right are selling.

[Summer LuvN]

What I heard about Nv was around the mesquite area and Lake Mead and the smaller towns and the fact there is no property tax.
There's no state income tax...... Nevada has property tax.

[Havasu Hangin']

Simply What would you do to get the economy back on track if you where the Fed Chair?
I am by no means an economy expert, but I believe the Fed has to balance raising interest rates to keep inflation down...but at the risk of hurting the RE sector (home starts, defaults, etc.).
I am constantly submitting CPG price increases- 99% are due to fuel prices (petroleum products such as PET, and shipping costs).
Gas prices go up, raw good prices go up, wholesale prices go up, retail prices go up, inflation goes up...and the Fed raises rates. You wanna keep rates and defaults down (and keep values up)? Fix the oil industry monopoly.

[sleekcraft80]

There's no state income tax...... Nevada has property tax.
A friend of mine told there was no property tax. He was going to move to mesquite because of that. Thanks for correcting me on that. I will tell him

[sleekcraft80]

In 04 - 05 when the price of concrete, steel and lumber went up, that started somewhat a decline in the building industry as far as residential projects. In the comercial building there hasn't been that much of a change.

[Not So Fast]

I know some people who have had their house on the market for months with not one looker. I don't see it getting better anytime soon. I really think the sellers need to lower their prices to move them. Hopefully that would lower the inventory enough to get things moving again. Probably a little to simplify:idea: Seems to me the houses that are priced right are selling.
There are so many for sale in Havasu and have been for a long, long time. Some are selling sure but like my neighbors house which is very nice for $450K (down from $535K) has been on the market for over 2 years with no lookies at all and not one offer. Brand new one across the street with an R/V garage and been on the market for over 1 year, same story. Pinch at the pump is really starting to have an effect on spendable income if you ask me and will get worse :( :( NSF

[Run_em_Hard]

I know that there are quite a few people moving to Utah from Cali...stay away dammit, I would like to keep my towns population under 1k:D

[Sportin' Wood]

Good opinions:
I have seen the cycle twice since I have been old enough to work and watched it once when I was a kid. ( Mom's been into RE all my life)
No doubt it will rebound, history repeats itself again and again they just keep changing the names of the panics. How long it will last is the main concern.
about fuel prices;
My 2 cents is that we Americans will have to change our life style to get outta the grip of the oil industry, and as long as big oil has the white house good luck with oil prices. I personally am not willing to give up my 14.1 MPG PSD or my 2MPG boat just yet, but the thought has crossed my mind to buy an $11,000 toyota death trap and stop spending over $100.00 a week on fuel.
Thats what it will take IMHO to get at the oil industry. They will raise the prices as long as we let them. I assume that if demand went down price would go up in there case.:D 1 day boycott's are a joke.
I ride my bike a lot more nowa days to save on fuel costs.
Back to the RE topic.
I don't think we have hit bottom yet. It seems that the banks are trying the Short sale route and keeping the defaulting owner in the house so far but I don't see any reason to buy a short sale, or waste time trying to sell a short sale if I was an agent. Wait for the repo( I am startin g to see piles of empty houses now so maybe we are getting there) Banks need to get a few on thier books before the real blood bath begins. Bailing out the sub prime industry is a bad idea as far as I can see right now. Let them adjust out the bad seeds.
My opinion is that the Fed could help with a quarter point reduction but the time is not right yet. maybe 2 more quarters. Interesting times thats for sure.
Maybe it will educate a few people. I know it educated me in the 90's.
Nevada huh? I know a few people my brother included that have bought in Idaho. I like Utah but I'm not Mormon yet.;) Cant help but remember the old saying, " Buy where people are going and sell when they get there!"

[Lightning]

So I'm cruising around looking at houses and boy do I see a lot of red and Orange stickers in the windows of homes with dead grass. I think its plain to see that the housing slump is not going to rebound in May like the Building Industry Association would have led me to believe.:D
I'm not looking to beat that dead horse, but I'm interested where all the people are going? The Media and the Fed Chair seem to be a little behind the times when it comes to this stuff, so who else to ask then the mighty all knowing Hot Boat forum?
Are the people moving out of state? are they living in Cars? are they renting?
Are rents going up? Supply and demand tells me that rentals are going to be a good investment while the poor SOB's that lost homes need a place to live.
Part two of my question.
Simply What would you do to get the economy back on track if you where the Fed Chair?
Maybe its right where it needs to be? That is an option as well.
Popcorn free thread;)
My take: Generally speaking there are three kinds of sellers in this market;
Type 1. Those who are retiring, want to downsize, or are moving out of state. Most of these people are long time home owners willing to sell their homes at reasonable prices. They have plenty of equity and want to move the property and move on in life. $30K on way or the other is not going to make them or break them.
Type 2. The recently "wealthy" real estate owners who "got in when the market was right" and have their house for sale. For them, if it sells for the premium price they are asking, they'll be happy. If it doesn't sell for the premium price, then "oh well, we'll just wait a few years and then sell".
Type 3. Zero down, got put in a shite loan, are too dumb to be owner - and should of never bought in the first place. They can't stand the idea of taking a loss on their house because it will ruin them financially. They would rather list at a premium and not take a loss. To them it's better to bleed money slowly every month instead of taking the hit now and dealing with the facts and selling and moving on. <-- is that a sentence?
To answer your questions....
Are people moving out of state? I think a lot of people are moving out of state or to counties that are priced much cheaper then the ones they live in. A few years ago, the stats showed that 50,000 people (net of births) moved out of San Diego county. More people left the county then entered it.
Rents are going up (generally speaking), but in some over developed new areas with lots of investment owners (as opposed to occupant owners) they are flat. I own a rental property; 3bd/1.5 bath 1000 square feet = $2025 a month.
Regarding the economy, I think that's it's on track. We've had tremendous growth in the stock market over the past few years. Like all things in life, the economy and certain aspect of it are cyclical. When real estate does good the stock market doesn't and vice versa. However, people tend to like real estate more then their investment portfolios. Why? Real estate you can touch, see, smell, kick and drive past and point. Stock portfolios are just numbers on paper. Most people buy on emotion and sell on fear. When the stock market is up, a lot of people get excited and tend to buy. When the stock market goes down, people panic and sell. Fundamentally speaking, they should do the opposite (buy low, sell high).
Then again, what does all this matter if you are not going to be making any moves for 10 years. Over the long run, it all goes up. Dips in the cycle are just small speed bump along the way.

[Havasu Hangin']

about fuel prices;
My 2 cents is that we Americans will have to change our life style to get outta the grip of the oil industry, and as long as big oil has the white house good luck with oil prices. I personally am not willing to give up my 14.1 MPG PSD or my 2MPG boat just yet, but the thought has crossed my mind to buy an $11,000 toyota death trap and stop spending over $100.00 a week on fuel.
Thats what it will take IMHO to get at the oil industry. They will raise the prices as long as we let them. I assume that if demand went down price would go up in there case.:D 1 day boycott's are a joke.
I ride my bike a lot more nowa days to save on fuel costs.
Yes, the oil industry has figured out the point of diminishing returns on retail fuel costs (when consumers will start cutting back from running out of disposable income).
The problem is that when the raise the prices for us, all the planes, trains, and trucks that deliver raw, wholesale, and retail goods also feel it. Even if we all cut back on buying gas, if the prices don't come down, we will pay more for everything we use.
Then, interest rates go up.

[Not So Fast]

Good opinions:
I have seen the cycle twice since I have been old enough to work and watched it once when I was a kid. ( Mom's been into RE all my life)
No doubt it will rebound, history repeats itself again and again they just keep changing the names of the panics. How long it will last is the main concern.
about fuel prices;
My 2 cents is that we Americans will have to change our life style to get outta the grip of the oil industry, and as long as big oil has the white house good luck with oil prices. I personally am not willing to give up my 14.1 MPG PSD or my 2MPG boat just yet, but the thought has crossed my mind to buy an $11,000 toyota death trap and stop spending over $100.00 a week on fuel.
Thats what it will take IMHO to get at the oil industry. They will raise the prices as long as we let them. I assume that if demand went down price would go up in there case.:D 1 day boycott's are a joke.
I ride my bike a lot more nowa days to save on fuel costs.
Back to the RE topic.
I don't think we have hit bottom yet. It seems that the banks are trying the Short sale route and keeping the defaulting owner in the house so far but I don't see any reason to buy a short sale, or waste time trying to sell a short sale if I was an agent. Wait for the repo( I am startin g to see piles of empty houses now so maybe we are getting there) Banks need to get a few on thier books before the real blood bath begins. Bailing out the sub prime industry is a bad idea as far as I can see right now. Let them adjust out the bad seeds.
My opinion is that the Fed could help with a quarter point reduction but the time is not right yet. maybe 2 more quarters. Interesting times thats for sure.
Maybe it will educate a few people. I know it educated me in the 90's.
Nevada huh? I know a few people my brother included that have bought in Idaho. I like Utah but I'm not Mormon yet.;) Cant help but remember the old saying, " Buy where people are going and sell when they get there!"
All valid points but dont you really think that the absurd increases during the last 4 years are mostly to blame. If you think about it the average Joe's income has not kept pace with the price increases (autos also) hence foreclosures are up big time because people just had to have that bigger, nicer or even that first house and were willing to gamble that values would keep going up, sort of like a pyramid scheme if you ask me and now that the values are NOT going up and the "VOODOO" financing has them upside down the market is in trouble. And again spendable income is taking a big hit with the prices of everything we touch going up from increases in fuel prices that we have to have until something is figured out to stop our dependency on oil or better yet the outlandish profits being taken by big oil are controlled, but thats another story in itself isnt it??:( :( NSF

[AZKC]

What the hells going on here, this seems to be a actual discussion going on in this thread.;)
The paper was reporting that the Phoenix housing market is slowly stabilizing. The buyer and seller numbers seem to be reaching a happy medium.

[Sportin' Wood]

All valid points but dont you really think that the absurd increases during the last 4 years are mostly to blame. If you think about it the average Joe's income has not kept pace with the price increases (autos also) hence foreclosures are up big time because people just had to have that bigger, nicer or even that first house and were willing to gamble that values would keep going up, sort of like a pyramid scheme if you ask me and now that the values are NOT going up and the "VOODOO" financing has them upside down the market is in trouble. And again spendable income is taking a big hit with the prices of everything we touch going up from increases in fuel prices that we have to have until something is figured out to stop our dependency on oil or better yet the outlandish profits being taken by big oil are controlled, but thats another story in itself isnt it??:( :( NSF
I pretty much agree with every thing thats been posted on this thread, including what you are saying, I think the problem is much bigger then what we can discuss on Hot boat with out photo chops, and flame wars.:D
IMHO the problem goes all the way back to post depression New deal politics. The need for us to consume to keep the country afloat. War used to fix any upset in the balance but people are starting to get wise to the politics of wars. I don't think this is the end all throw in the chips but no one can predict what will happen, and dare I say it might be good for Americans to have to tighten the belt alittle. Good God when construction slowing effects the economy like is has recently that seems pretty scarey to me. Its not like aerospace or defense cut backs caused this slow down.( at least in my area)
Anyone think we can get thru page one before some one starts bickering? Lunch time is just around the corner;)
Thanks for all the great reply's I am enjoying a healthy conversation on the topic.

[moneypit]

Moving back to mommy and daddys house perhaps, or renting again?

[AZKC]

The wife works for the KB division here in town and they are still selling houses but losing their arses on everyone of them.
People that had deposits are just walking away leaving 10's of thousands of $$$ rather than pay what they contracted for. Then there are the buyers that are pissin an moanin about "I paid this and they paid that, I want a refund"
One thing I've learned to stay away from is the ole "Hi Honey, how was your day?":)

[Lightning]

What the hells going on here, this seems to be a actual discussion going on in this thread.;)
The paper was reporting that the Phoenix housing market is slowly stabilizing. The buyer and seller numbers seem to be reaching a happy medium.
I also read that a ton of people saved money by switching to Geico and that some other people saved money by staying at the Holiday Inn last night.

[Ziggy]

I blame the lenders.
They created such easy to obtain loans that are risky if the economy has a slight mis-step.
Way too many people got caught up in the interest only loans, 2nd and 3rd mortgages for spending money rather than actually increase the homes value.

[C-2]

One of the problems with the whole subprime is mess is the leftovers.
We have three families who clearly would not qualify for purchasing any house, let alone $500K homes. However, they were able to get in – and of course, when they stack multiple families in the house, they can make the mortgage.
Just this morning, 8 cops showed up at one of the houses and hauled their little taggers away. The remaining problem lingers though – if they continue to fill the house with multiple families – I doubt they will lose it. So it’s the start of a downward spiral in our neighborhood.
Sometimes, just sometimes, I sure wish the interest rates would get back to where they were ten years ago (after I refinance, of course):D
Being a bubble buster myself – I feel kind of bad for those industry peeps who, just a few months ago, said they were still waiting. So I’ll refrain from my usual doom and gloom input.;)

[socalmofo]

I think one of the reasons people are having a hard time selling is that EVERY time they could they pulled more money out. I would venture to say that 90%of the homeowners I know pulled money out of their house at least once per year. These people are always at 100% of their value which means a SMALL decrease in value and they can't sell their home anymore. It is really amazing. I have never payed for 1 toy with my homes equity. It's unfortunate for these people but they are going to have to learn the hard way! I bet that same percentage applies to ***boat as well. 90% have paid for toys with their homes.

[wsuwrhr]

but not me, I am no big-baller.
I just have a couple worn out 1970's toys I keep playing with, motorhomes, cars, boats toys that were payed for when I brought them home.
Brian
I think one of the reasons people are having a hard time selling is that EVERY time they could they pulled more money out. I would venture to say that 90%of the homeowners I know pulled money out of their house at least once per year. These people are always at 100% of their value which means a SMALL decrease in value and they can't sell their home anymore. It is really amazing. I have never payed for 1 toy with my homes equity. It's unfortunate for these people but they are going to have to learn the hard way! I bet that same percentage applies to ***boat as well. 90% have paid for toys with their homes.

[riverfun]

We have a neighbor down the street that semi retired 3 yrs. ago with house paid off. Just found out they will be putting house on the market within 8 weeks, seems they refied several times to buy investment prop. in AZ and are now completly screwed, renters are not covering the payments on the houses (yes plural) and they cant sell in AZ only hope now is to sell the CA prop. And oh yea this guy was telling me only 18 to 24 mo. ago how he was making more $ in retiremnet than working

[Not So Fast]

I actually remember when we bought our first little house in La Canada in 1968 (Jesus, how old am I??:( ) and the lending institutions had a formula I believe that wouldnt let you borrow over 25% (payments) of your net income per month, can you believe that shit. If that were the case today half the borrowers wouldnt qualify, maybe more but the foreclosure rate was non existent.
This a cool inteligent thread isnt it, how odd:D :D NSF

[YeLLowBoaT]

The trend I am seeing in the last couple years in construction( atleast in the sac area) is New homes are still being built, but at a much slower rate then they were before and for selling prices that are alot closer to reality then in the past. Lots of contractors are going under/ having to cut way down. The home builders themselfs are realizing that they can no longer make big bucks on building new homes. ( I know one that was making 6 figures off every new home they built, now they are lucky if they make 5k... and this is the same track, they can't sell them for what they use too) the "deals" that the new housing market is now offering has killed the established market.
There are 2 sectors of res construction that are still going strong at this point( in sac anyways) Those are multi familys and remodels taking apartments and turning them into condos.
Comm'l is a year or 2 behind the res. Its too the point now that new homes was last year. Lots have been built/ being built, but none are selling or renting.

[framer1]

We have a neighbor down the street that semi retired 3 yrs. ago with house paid off. Just found out they will be putting house on the market within 8 weeks, seems they refied several times to buy investment prop. in AZ and are now completly screwed, renters are not covering the payments on the houses (yes plural) and they cant sell in AZ only hope now is to sell the CA prop. And oh yea this guy was telling me only 18 to 24 mo. ago how he was making more $ in retiremnet than working
Never use your primary residence for any investment or toys,that is a strict rule of mine. I'm feeling pretty good about selling my Havasu house a little over a year ago:) Also sold some commerial property in town, the only thing I kept was some land in the Refuge. I wanted to keep my foot in the door in Havasu in case I wanted to have a house there again.

[CA Stu]

The average American uses 500 gallons of gas per year, according to http://www.eia.doe.gov/
Even if gas goes up to $5, that's about $900/year increase, or $75/month for the average American driver.
So it ain't the gas prices driving the RE market.
I agree it is the hyper-agressive lenders and overinflated appraisers in bed together to make a few extra bucks at the expense of the gullible and fiscally irresponsible.
Markets seek their own level, and they are cyclical. I believe historically the RE market is about on a 7 year cycle?
Which means the next big increase should be about 2012 or 2013?
Also, I reckon that the market is just slowing to a more sustainable level, rather than the inevitably short-lived euphoric fantasyland of the last 36 month or so.
There's something to be said for living within your means, I guess.
Thanks
CA Stu

[AirtimeLavey]

I know some people who have had their house on the market for months with not one looker. I don't see it getting better anytime soon. I really think the sellers need to lower their prices to move them. Hopefully that would lower the inventory enough to get things moving again. Probably a little to simplify:idea: Seems to me the houses that are priced right are selling.
This is very true, but most sellers don't get that. Most sellers approach it with - "this is what I need to make on myhouse, or I spent this much in upgrades so I should get this much back, or my friend made this much on his house", etc. It's the market that determines prices and how quickly it sells.
One of the problems with the whole subprime is mess is the leftovers.
We have three families who clearly would not qualify for purchasing any house, let alone $500K homes. However, they were able to get in – and of course, when they stack multiple families in the house, they can make the mortgage.
Just this morning, 8 cops showed up at one of the houses and hauled their little taggers away. The remaining problem lingers though – if they continue to fill the house with multiple families – I doubt they will lose it. So it’s the start of a downward spiral in our neighborhood.
Sometimes, just sometimes, I sure wish the interest rates would get back to where they were ten years ago (after I refinance, of course):D
Being a bubble buster myself – I feel kind of bad for those industry peeps who, just a few months ago, said they were still waiting. So I’ll refrain from my usual doom and gloom input.;)
This is true, too. The pool of buyers used to be made up of; 1st time buyers, step up buyers, second home buyers, investment buyers, flippers, sub-prime, etc. Now, the pool has shrunk dramatically. Flippers and short term investors are mostly out (unless they're hard core and really know their shiznit), with Sub-prime lenders gone or verey heightened qualifications first time buyers and poor credit had suffered. Buyers are out there, but fewer and farther between.
I don't wish for higher rates, and I still don't see the hard numbers supporting any bubble bursting, yet. See my other thread, that has actual numbers. I'm not sayiing it won't happen, because affordability is a big problem right now, but I just don't see the burst, yet.
I think one of the reasons people are having a hard time selling is that EVERY time they could they pulled more money out. I would venture to say that 90%of the homeowners I know pulled money out of their house at least once per year. These people are always at 100% of their value which means a SMALL decrease in value and they can't sell their home anymore. It is really amazing. I have never payed for 1 toy with my homes equity. It's unfortunate for these people but they are going to have to learn the hard way! I bet that same percentage applies to ***boat as well. 90% have paid for toys with their homes.
Unfortunately, I see this scenario everyday. That's when we get the "I need to sell my house for this amount", instead of listening when we show relavent market analysis.
So I'm cruising around looking at houses and boy do I see a lot of red and Orange stickers in the windows of homes with dead grass. I think its plain to see that the housing slump is not going to rebound in May like the Building Industry Association would have led me to believe.:D
I'm not looking to beat that dead horse, but I'm interested where all the people are going? The Media and the Fed Chair seem to be a little behind the times when it comes to this stuff, so who else to ask then the mighty all knowing Hot Boat forum?
Are the people moving out of state? are they living in Cars? are they renting?
Are rents going up? Supply and demand tells me that rentals are going to be a good investment while the poor SOB's that lost homes need a place to live.
Part two of my question.
Simply What would you do to get the economy back on track if you where the Fed Chair?
Maybe its right where it needs to be? That is an option as well.
Popcorn free thread;)
Yes, I see first hand, many people uprooting from CA and moving to other states. They've made such huge gains in equity over the past few years, they cash out and go buy more house in another state. Tired of the cost of living out here, the traffic, English becoming more the second language, etc.
I also think the economy is on track, although many think that RE will put a drag on it and others do not. How's that for non-committal? Have done well in the stock market recently, even though home sales volume is in the tank.
I had a conversation w/a large sub-contrator yesterday, and he says they will be doing a lot more multi-family type units in the near term. Says he also got stung when he found out he had a large portion of his crews turnig out to be here illegally. All had used fake IDs, and some had been w/him for over 10 year!
Also seeing a lot of banks not accepting short sales or pushing people into foreclosure, but rather really working to offer alternatives to keep people in their homes. When people say record foreclosures, again, they're not readingthe stats right. It's a record growth over the past years, but actually more of a normal rate, since the past few years had fewer foreclosures.
I think you're right about oil, and it sure seems like I've seen a lot more Prius out there than ever before. I'm not quite ready to sell the Tahoe or the boat, although I do calculate my fuel a little more than before. :mad: