Is The Bubble About To Burst?

[4DAY4PLAY]

looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.

[Havasu Cig]

If you are talking about Havasu, I would wait. I think the market is going to soften ( I think it already has a bit). The predictions from the current Forbes is predicting Vegas to get hit the hardest in the next year, and So.Cal. is right behind them. In my opinion Havasu will go as So.Cal. goes.

[Havasu Cig]

Here is a good article I found....
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20051223-0716-economy.html

[cc322]

Seems like they have been talking about this bubble for about five years. In OC they are saying homes will still appreciate just not as high as of a prcentage, instead of 10 or 11% maybe 3% to 5% still a increase though. Havasu not to sure, we bought a condo a year ago and have made 60k on it.

[2Driver]

If you are talking about Havasu, I would wait. I think the market is going to soften ( I think it already has a bit). The predictions from the current Forbes is predicting Vegas to get hit the hardest in the next year, and So.Cal. is right behind them. In my opinion Havasu will go as So.Cal. goes.
Common sense would tell you it would retract. Those were my thoughts. Here are my past actions in regards to river real estate.
Sold house in LHC for 95K in 1990 now worth 350K
Sold house in Moonridge below the dam for $85K in 2000 now worth $250K
Turned down waterfront in Moonridge for $200K in 2001 now worth $850K!!!
Just call me. I'll tell you what I am going to do, then you should just do the opposite. :cry:

[totenhosen]

My advice is when you see forecasts for the R/E market see who they are coming from and if they have anything to benefit from their forecasts. The NAR and CAR have both been backpedaling as of late. Several months ago they were saying there was no bubble and appreciation in CA should continue in the 10-15% range. Now they are saying they are expecting a soft landing for bubble areas.
My advice is if you do buy don't plan on it seeing huge appreciation and even perhaps a decline. But as long as you think long term, stick with a 30 year fixed you can ride out any decline.
http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/2005/12/november-california-home-sales-down-11.html

[AirtimeLavey]

You know I just love reading your posts. Not because of anything you have to say but you have the best sig on HB :)
I agree with your statements regarding real estate by the way
Usually, he's got good points on RE, or at least interesting. Unfortunately, he's lost ALL credibility with that sig. line. :hammerhea :wink:
I think CC322's comment is the more likely scenario, in my uninformed opinion.

[Charley]

If you are investing in Real estate for a quick buck, dont, if you are in for the long haul there really isn't a bad time
obviously My lameass opinion :p

[Holland]

Common sense would tell you it would retract. Those were my thoughts. Here are my past actions in regards to river real estate.
Sold house in LHC for 95K in 1990 now worth 350K
Sold house in Moonridge below the dam for $85K in 2000 now worth $250K
Turned down waterfront in Moonridge for $200K in 2001 now worth $850K!!!
Just call me. I'll tell you what I am going to do, then you should just do the opposite. :cry:
Now thats Funny!!!!!
Sorry, but I know how you feel....

[framer1]

Common sense would tell you it would retract. Those were my thoughts. Here are my past actions in regards to river real estate.
Sold house in LHC for 95K in 1990 now worth 350K
Sold house in Moonridge below the dam for $85K in 2000 now worth $250K
Turned down waterfront in Moonridge for $200K in 2001 now worth $850K!!!
Just call me. I'll tell you what I am going to do, then you should just do the opposite. :cry:
So, what exactly are you planing to do I could use some extra money :)

[riverracerx]

My wife sells 45 year loans now.
With all of the interest only loans out there all I am sure we will see plenty of defaults and foreclosures as soon as the market changes.

[al cole'holic]

...not a vacation home by any means cause I would rather slit my wrist then spend one in Texas but we are about to purchase a brand new condo in Pasadena Texas. Of course it'll be for the long haul, but for $80k F it...I have car payments bigger than what the mortgage will be :)
Those of you that choose to wait for the California bubble to burst some day, keep on waiting...but at least invest in some form of real estate somewhere!!!!

[Roaddogg 4040]

You should get ready for the pop since we just closed in LHC. Hang on for the rush of hot air...
Steve

[totenhosen]

Those of you that choose to wait for the California bubble to burst some day, keep on waiting...but at least invest in some form of real estate somewhere!!!!
Because we all know R/E prices in CA never go down!

[al cole'holic]

Because we all know R/E prices in CA never go down!
I ain't gettin into it with you again....I think we have had this discussion going on for 2 years now and you waiters are still waiting. I choose to hold the opinion that there will be no burst and you choose to hold the opinion that there will be....all that aside, BUY SOMETHING SOMEWHERE NOW!!!!!!!! :rolleyes:

[Ziggy]

You should get ready for the pop since we just closed in LHC. Hang on for the rush of hot air...
Steve
Closed what?

[C-2]

I think the bubble wil burst - nothing to with demand. Pure affordability issues.
When the market flattens and lenders finally get a clue and cut off the equity ATM machine most people have been tapping for five years - something has gotta give.
100%, 45 year interest only loans? Lenders will be banging their heads against the wall when it goes south.
When? Who knows, we're cashing out now!

[HM]

It is always a good time buy. Just buy what you can afford.
Still have the law of supply and demand going on. As much as they keep saying the bubble has to burst, there is still a shortage of homes in CA. I also think lenders are going to wh0re themselves out to keep the market going(they already are).

[Roaddogg 4040]

Ziggy
We just bought a lot a Havasu Heights. Getting ready to build a shop then a house.
Steve

[BoatFloating]

The Havasu bubble will be big once So Cal softens. The people that live there can't afford the homes anymore because the 2nd home people fronm Cali have driven up values so high. The avg hourly wage to afford a house in Havasu now is $36.00. That's crazy and the infrastructure can't handle that. I'll sit on side lines and wait for the FC's in Havasu to happen. People who have 2nd homes in Havasu will walk away from them as oppossed to their primary home. You won't se a burst in So Cal you'll see a softer market but Havasu and other places with 2nd homes and investments homes listen for the bang because it's coming......

[bigriverdog]

looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
Values are heading down. Its all supply and demand and if you noticed all of the for sale signs, thats over supply. If you plan on owning it a while buy it, but at the right price. If you plan on flipping it, you had better steal it.

[Ziggy]

Ziggy
We just bought a lot a Havasu Heights. Getting ready to build a shop then a house.
Steve
Cool........Price still relatively affordable in the Heights? Couldn't tell by your other post if you closed an escrow or a biz :rolleyes: :D
Hope it all works out as planned for you !!

[meaniam]

...not a vacation home by any means cause I would rather slit my wrist then spend one in Texas but we are about to purchase a brand new condo in Pasadena Texas. Of course it'll be for the long haul, but for $80k F it...I have car payments bigger than what the mortgage will be :)
Those of you that choose to wait for the California bubble to burst some day, keep on waiting...but at least invest in some form of real estate somewhere!!!!
i have a friend who just purchase a brand new not even finished yet house in texas. it is 5 bedrooms and like 3200 sq ft for 250k with all the upgrades. she is just outside of san antonio i think. those are some screaming deals out there.
looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
everytime someone screams the bubble is going to burst. (since 2001) and always around christmas. ( which is the slow season in real estate) people panic and they always put there houses up for sale. which creates too much inventory. which allows houses to stay on the market longer. creating a temporary flatline then march comes around and things progress and inventory drops. (that has happened the past 5 yrs). there is a few houses that are forclosed. and this may become more evident as the interest goes up. (currently we are at the highest since oct 01,) and greenspan is scheduled to step down at the new year. predictions on the market is the same as gambling in vegas. i heard you can actually bet on this now. good luck. there will eventually be a hiccup in the market. but when it does happen will prices drop as far as they did in 92? but if you do try to wait it out. and the prices keep going, you'll wish you would have bought.
being on a adjustable rate is playing russian rolette <sp> it dont make no sense to not switch over. while the rates are still reasonable.

[Mandelon]

Upper end has softened a bit. Market times increasing. Priced right homes sell. Over priced homes will sit.
Burst? No I dont think so. If jobs remain strong and interest rates do not go up dramatically things should be alright. Don't expect much appreciation, not like its been for the past few years anyway.
Those living beyond their means are going to have some issues for sure. No more refi's to save them.
As the older generation dies off, there are billions of inheritances out there to keep the economy going.....I think as the baby boomers start to die off, (sorry you guys) there will be a lot of extra housing and capacity. But that's 30 years away. Maybe that's why Bush wants to let all the illegals in?
I think Havasu is pretty bulletproof. Lot of folks want to retire there. As it goes up too much and becomes untouchable other areas will increase, like BHC, Needles, etc. Folks like to be by the water....

[totenhosen]

I ain't gettin into it with you again....I think we have had this discussion going on for 2 years now and you waiters are still waiting. I choose to hold the opinion that there will be no burst and you choose to hold the opinion that there will be....all that aside, BUY SOMETHING SOMEWHERE NOW!!!!!!!! :rolleyes:
I don't want to get into it with you either. I actually was a R/E bull until about 6 months ago. I own several properties and have sold some of them because I felt I needed to take some cash off the table. I would love to hear why you think the current R/E market is sustainable. And not just what CAR's stance is. For me the warning signs are:
- rampant fraud in the mortgage industry. People being put into loans that they can't afford once the adjustment comes.
- Over reliance on exotic loans. Sorry people that are W-2 income earners more than likely shouldn't be doing stated income loans unless they really can't afford it.
- Massive sell-off of insider shares of home builders. (What do they see that we don't? If the market is going to be great the next year why the sell-off?)
- Affordability index at historical highs. (There will less people willing to move up the R/E ladder.)
- Increasing inventory during a so called slow season. In the past three years there really wasn't a slow season as homes still sold quickly.
- large layoffs already taking place in the mortgage industry. No more overtime work allowed.
I look at the baby boomer situation differently than Mandeleon. If they start dying off that will leave a glut of inventory. There will be more supply than demand causing downward pressure on pricing.
Again I don't want to battle anyone. My guess is just as good as yours. I am merely stated my opinion with the reasons why I feel that way. Everyone is going to do what they think is best for themselves. havign said that I think one needs to look at the source of the information. Most of the people who are still bullish on the R/E market have something to gain from it staying that way.

[OutCole'd]

The predictions from the current Forbes is predicting Vegas to get hit the hardest in the next year, :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[SummitKarl]

You should get ready for the pop since we just closed in LHC. Hang on for the rush of hot air...
Steve
by the way I looked (drooled) at your lot yesterday, GOOD JOB!!!! got my wheels spinning, with ideas :)

[Roaddogg 4040]

Ziggy
I think that the prices were out of control but that is because I live in Michigan right now andd no we didn't close our business we just bought the lot.
Karl
Take it easy on your ideas as I have to get the shop built first!!!! :rollside:
Steve

[SummitKarl]

looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
well look at it this way, even if the market settles a bit, LHC is still on a 30% growth rate, lets say it softens by 1/2......can you get 15% on your money anywhere else?.
National Association of Realtors, is predicting a BANNER year across the nation AVG. for residential with a trend leaning towards purchasing commercial properties.
In My case I do see a slow down in VOLUME, but that is a choice of Summit homes, (keep quality vs. volume), although Summit pulled less permits this year than last....it was a even better year than last.
for my Personal home building and designs, I too have made this same decision, to slow down a bit and concentrate on timely service, too bad it will be at least another 60 days before I can even get close to being caught up,
re-sales are slowing down a bit, but New homes and Re-models are just as strong if not stronger than this time last year.
One thing for all of us to keep in mind is that this is traditionally the slow time of year (Oct-Jan) for real estate... it's not a bubble or anything it's just the cycle of the market (very little tax benefit to purchase right now)..sales on all homes will pick right back up in Feb, they always have. so the sky is not falling.. don't panic..it's a very good time to re-fi and get rid of your non-coventional loans ( HINT, HINT )

[SummitKarl]

Ziggy
I think that the prices were out of control but that is because I live in Michigan right now andd no we didn't close our business we just bought the lot.
Karl
Take it easy on your ideas as I have to get the shop built first!!!! :rollside:
Steve
GARAGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now that's a good one, you want a flippin Indoor Bus terminal :rolleyes: :rollside: or is that a (5k seat) sports arena :)

[soupersonic]

Even if the market settles some the return on your money will still be better than anything else going. The growth forecasted for AZ and a few other areas is still tremendous. The prices not climbing as fast IMO is a good thing as far as affordability goes and therefore should be a better time to buy.Also some of the growth is a good thing as the prices rise, people get more creative and start some infill like new condos and condo conversions for cheaper housing. Lets face it, they dont make any more dirt. It will always be a strong investment but be smart about it. Someone earlier talked about all the interest only loans there are out there right now. Those will be turning into foreclosures soone enough and some even better deals will be had . Good luck. Happy Holidays :)

[Ivan Dan]

Are we really going through this AGAIN?????????? Sheeessshhhhhh Everyone has their own opinion on whats going to happen but as I've stated many times on here NO ONE and I repeat NO ONE knows whats going to happen. It could continue up just as easily as it could drop. Only time will tell.

[Roaddogg 4040]

Hey Karl, I don't see what's wrong with a 6,000 SQ FT shop, do you? :rollside:
Steve

[SummitKarl]

Hey Karl, I don't see what's wrong with a 6,000 SQ FT shop, do you? :rollside:
Steve
YEA!!! it's not mine, Thats the problem :p :)

[Roaddogg 4040]

I might have a spot for boat storage= $$$$$$$$$$$

[Red Horse]

The real estate bubble is more media hype than anything. True there will be some fallout with all these interest only loans and creative financing out there but it will not be enough to make you lose all that you have gained. I watch Vegas pretty close along with a few other select markets and I have seen a serious rise in values. They will fall when the market gets a little soft. Maybe appreciation will drop to about 4-8 % for a few years. So what. The Real estate market will wait till wages catch up and then start another upward trend. :cool:

[2Driver]

Are we really going through this AGAIN?????????? Sheeessshhhhhh Everyone has their own opinion on whats going to happen but as I've stated many times on here NO ONE and I repeat NO ONE knows whats going to happen. It could continue up just as easily as it could drop. Only time will tell.
But here you are reading and posting to it :D :D

[totenhosen]

The real estate bubble is more media hype than anything. True there will be some fallout with all these interest only loans and creative financing out there but it will not be enough to make you lose all that you have gained. I watch Vegas pretty close along with a few other select markets and I have seen a serious rise in values. They will fall when the market gets a little soft. Maybe appreciation will drop to about 4-8 % for a few years. So what. The Real estate market will wait till wages catch up and then start another upward trend. :cool:
I think that is one unknown factor that one can not account for: Pyschology of the general public and the media most definantely influences that.

[Havasu Cig]

The real estate bubble is more media hype than anything. True there will be some fallout with all these interest only loans and creative financing out there but it will not be enough to make you lose all that you have gained. I watch Vegas pretty close along with a few other select markets and I have seen a serious rise in values. They will fall when the market gets a little soft. Maybe appreciation will drop to about 4-8 % for a few years. So what. The Real estate market will wait till wages catch up and then start another upward trend. :cool:
I guess you were not around in the late 80' & early 90's. Everyone thought the same thing and then it crashed. I just talked to a friend who both he and his other 1/2 are in the real estate and mortgage business and they had a very bad month. IMO the creative financing, fraud (stated income) in the mortgage business, and rising interest rates are going to drive the market down.

[Mandelon]

Builder stock prices are falling......indicating the market thinks a slowdown is pending.....mob mentality? Or spot on? Stay tuned .........

[TCHB]

My Advice
1. If you want it buy it for the long term.
2. Buy nice property (view, home, location etc)
3. Do not react to market ups and downs.
4. Long term over the past (30 years) has been great.
I can kick myself for not keeping all of my properties over the years!!!

[That Guy]

Is The Bubble About To Burst?
No....

[Essex502]

What bubble?