Dr. Eagle
04-15-2004, 08:46 AM
Calif. power officials fret about summer supplies
SAN FRANCISCO, April 14 (Reuters) - Growing demand for electricity, a slowdown in power plant construction, and tight supplies are worrying California power officials as summer nears, a spokesman for the state grid said on Wednesday.
The California Independent System Operator, which runs most of the electric grid, expects to issue its summer supply-and-demand forecast shortly and ISO operators are concerned about electricity shortages "if base case assumptions on supplies and consumption don't come true," said ISO spokesman Gregg Fishman.
The ISO will revive its annual plea to consumers to save as much power as possible during the hot summer months, when demand for air conditioning soars, straining the grid.
California already has had a grid scare this year, when scorching temperatures in Southern California on March 29 sparked heavy demand for air conditioning power.
That forced the ISO to call a "stage one" alert, the first such declaration since May 2003.
A stage one alert gives the ISO additional control over power plants and results in a call for voluntary conservation but does not cut service for either residential or business customers.
California is still recovering from the 2000-2001 energy crisis when a shortage of electricity exacerbated by market manipulation by energy traders led to blackouts and the bankruptcy of its largest utility, the Pacific Gas & Electric unit of PG&E Corp.
The utility emerged from bankruptcy on Monday.
GROWING CONSUMPTION
California's electricity usage is growing by 4.5 percent annually compared with 2 to 2.5 percent in past years, with much of the increased "load" reflecting changing demographics, Fishman said.
"More homes are being built in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire in Southern California in areas that are hotter and need more air conditioning," he said.
The state's economy is showing signs of strengthening and that is expected to result in more power use, Fishman added.
The ISO spokesman would not discuss specific figures in the draft summer report.
"We're cautiously optimistic about this summer but maybe a little less than we were six to eight months ago," Fishman said.
The agency is worried that an early melt of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada could crimp supplies of hydroelectricity, which provides about 20 percent of California's power, at the same time the Pacific Northwest has a below-normal hydro year.
The latest forecast for the 2003-2004 Northwest water year showed the volume of water flowing through the region's giant hydro dams will average 78 percent of normal at the key Dalles dam, according to the Northwest River Forecast Center.
Another concern is California is not building power plants at the pace it was only three years ago.
Fishman said 10,000 megawatts of new capacity have come on the grid since the energy crisis but this was offset by the loss of 3,500 megawatts of retired plants. One megawatt is enough power for about 1,000 homes.
In addition, new plant construction has been stalled due to the problems of the merchant energy sector, which has been scaling back expansion plans and focusing on restructuring existing operations, Fishman said. "There aren't many more megawatts coming on line through 2004," he said.
SAN FRANCISCO, April 14 (Reuters) - Growing demand for electricity, a slowdown in power plant construction, and tight supplies are worrying California power officials as summer nears, a spokesman for the state grid said on Wednesday.
The California Independent System Operator, which runs most of the electric grid, expects to issue its summer supply-and-demand forecast shortly and ISO operators are concerned about electricity shortages "if base case assumptions on supplies and consumption don't come true," said ISO spokesman Gregg Fishman.
The ISO will revive its annual plea to consumers to save as much power as possible during the hot summer months, when demand for air conditioning soars, straining the grid.
California already has had a grid scare this year, when scorching temperatures in Southern California on March 29 sparked heavy demand for air conditioning power.
That forced the ISO to call a "stage one" alert, the first such declaration since May 2003.
A stage one alert gives the ISO additional control over power plants and results in a call for voluntary conservation but does not cut service for either residential or business customers.
California is still recovering from the 2000-2001 energy crisis when a shortage of electricity exacerbated by market manipulation by energy traders led to blackouts and the bankruptcy of its largest utility, the Pacific Gas & Electric unit of PG&E Corp.
The utility emerged from bankruptcy on Monday.
GROWING CONSUMPTION
California's electricity usage is growing by 4.5 percent annually compared with 2 to 2.5 percent in past years, with much of the increased "load" reflecting changing demographics, Fishman said.
"More homes are being built in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire in Southern California in areas that are hotter and need more air conditioning," he said.
The state's economy is showing signs of strengthening and that is expected to result in more power use, Fishman added.
The ISO spokesman would not discuss specific figures in the draft summer report.
"We're cautiously optimistic about this summer but maybe a little less than we were six to eight months ago," Fishman said.
The agency is worried that an early melt of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada could crimp supplies of hydroelectricity, which provides about 20 percent of California's power, at the same time the Pacific Northwest has a below-normal hydro year.
The latest forecast for the 2003-2004 Northwest water year showed the volume of water flowing through the region's giant hydro dams will average 78 percent of normal at the key Dalles dam, according to the Northwest River Forecast Center.
Another concern is California is not building power plants at the pace it was only three years ago.
Fishman said 10,000 megawatts of new capacity have come on the grid since the energy crisis but this was offset by the loss of 3,500 megawatts of retired plants. One megawatt is enough power for about 1,000 homes.
In addition, new plant construction has been stalled due to the problems of the merchant energy sector, which has been scaling back expansion plans and focusing on restructuring existing operations, Fishman said. "There aren't many more megawatts coming on line through 2004," he said.