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Essex502
06-21-2004, 10:26 AM
Shell to Cut Summer Output at Bakersfield Refinery, Papers Say
By Elizabeth Douglass, Times Staff Writer
Shell Oil Co. plans to put the brakes on production at its Bakersfield refinery in July and August, potentially shorting California's fuel supplies during the summertime driving season, according to internal Shell documents.
The planned cutback is the latest development in the controversy over the refinery, which can process up to 70,000 barrels a day of crude oil and makes about 2% of California's gasoline supply and 6% of its diesel. Shell has said it will close the facility Oct. 1 in a move that experts predict will boost pump prices by worsening the chronic imbalance between supply and demand in the state.
The internal documents obtained by The Times, including a refinery output forecast, indicate that Bakersfield will soon be producing far less than its capacity. After relatively high output rates in May and early June, Shell plans to cut crude oil processing about 6% in July and another 6% in August, according to the forecast.
Those two months are when California's fuel demand reaches annual peak levels.
Aamir Farid, general manager of Shell's refineries in Bakersfield and Martinez, said he couldn't confirm that there was a production slowdown in the works.
"If that's the case, there is a good reason for it," he said.
There could be maintenance planned or projections for a shortfall of crude, he added, but "off the top of my head, I don't know what that good reason is.
"We're not playing any games. We're not shutting down early," Farid continued. "We're going to run as we normally run everything. We're not doing anything different through Labor Day, for sure, because we don't want to impact anything during driving season."
"We're not playing any games." Sounds just like Enron to me.
Refining industry experts said production at a facility slated for a shutdown wouldn't need to be curtailed until shortly before the closing date, when the owner would begin emptying and cleaning the equipment.
The Shell forecast says the Martinez refinery, in the Bay Area, will also cut crude processing in July, by nearly 10%, a reduction attributed to planned heavy maintenance called "turnarounds" as well as other work.
Farid said it wasn't unusual for maintenance work to occur during the peak driving season instead of the traditional spring maintenance season. Rob Schlichting, a spokesman for the California Energy Commission, agreed with that assessment.
But Jamie Court, president of the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights in Santa Monica, said he believed Shell was up to no good.
"They are cutting back production coming into the busiest driving holiday of the year," Court said. "That's incontrovertible proof that Shell is artificially limiting supply in order to drive up prices."
Court contended that motive explained why Shell didn't search out potential buyers for the refinery once it decided to shutter it.
Interest in the refinery grew after Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), state Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer and others complained publicly that Shell wasn't actively putting it on the market. A Shell spokesman said the company had so far received 23 inquiries — up from 18 a month ago — and that five parties had signed confidentiality agreements to delve into the Bakersfield books.
They'll find that the refinery has recently been a moneymaker: The Shell documents show that Bakersfield's profit of $11 million in May was 57 times what the company projected and more than double what it made in all of 2003.
57 times??? WTF would they close a profitmaker like that???
Farid said that shouldn't be interpreted to suggest that Shell was wrong to plan to close the plant.
"You still have to assess whether you're going to generate a return on investment that you think is adequate," he said. Despite the big profit in May, "our view hasn't changed."
Last month, Lockyer's office hired an industry consultant to study the financial viability of the Bakersfield refinery and report back before the end of July.
Meanwhile, the Federal Trade Commission continues to investigate Shell's plan to close the refinery, which became a wholly owned Shell asset in 2001 as part of the commission's approval of the merger that created ChevronTexaco Corp.
"The FTC is digging into the details of this closure," said Boxer, who met recently with commission officials. But she added that the agency wouldn't complete its probe until after Labor Day.
"I'm not happy with that…. They need to move more quickly," she said, especially in light of Shell's move to taper off production. "The investigation's meaningless if everything is shut down, dismantled and all the rest."
The Bakersfield refinery is surrounded by prolific oil fields that produce San Joaquin Valley heavy crude. The company, a part owner of several of those fields, has said it wants to close the facility so it can divert more of the heavy crude to its refinery in Martinez, which Shell has said is more efficient than Bakersfield and is suffering from "underutilization" because of dwindling supplies of the San Joaquin crude it is set up to process.
The internal documents show that most of the Martinez refinery is set to run at or near maximum capacity and that it booked net profit of $34 million in May, which is just shy of Shell's profit expectations at Martinez for all of 2004.
That last paragraph contradicts the “underutilization” in the previous paragraph!
Article reprinted without permission of the Los Angeles Times.

Lightning
06-21-2004, 10:49 AM
Well that's a shocker....higher gas prices, reduced supply, effing over people during travel season.

Havasu_Dreamin
06-21-2004, 10:55 AM
RAT EFF'N BASTARDS! This is eff'n collusion because you know the other refineries are doing the same GD thing!

HighRoller
06-21-2004, 05:09 PM
What a surprise. I have nothing against a company making a profit in a free market with legitimate competition, but this represents companies who are drunk with money, power and greed. The oil companies have discovered that higher gas prices have many other benefits. Let's say you pay $1000 per delivery of gas to your stations. Each delivery is 2500 gallons, and you receive and sell 4 deliveries a day. At one dollar a gallon you make 10,000 dollars gross receipts on 4000 dollars overhead.(Theoretical)Now, if you sell the gas for $2 a gallon, you would only have to receive two deliveries to make your $10,000 with an overhead of 2,000. If you sell all four trucks, you make 20,000 in gross receipts. Of course your cost for the gas is higher, but the delivery cost the same! I think the oil companies want to sell half as much oil for twice the price, hence the refinery closings. They don't care if you buy less because they will just raise the price. In that same scenario, at $4 a gallon you only need one truckfull to make your $10,000 with 1000 dollars cost.
One final thought. If the refineries in the US are indeed stretched to or beyond capacity, why don't you EVER see a gas station run out? There always seems to be plenty of gas, even when the "supplies are tapped"....

Essex502
06-22-2004, 06:20 AM
You're absolutely right...the big oil companies don't care how much gas you buy as they have marked it up so high that they make a profit either way. We are dependent on gasoline so we have to buy. We've become dependent on the new "station wagons" (SUV's) that guzzle gas that we have to buy more gasoline. - NOTE: I am NOT a tree hugging liberal who thinks everyone should drive an electric car! We buy bigger boats with bigger motors that need more gasoline. And what are the oil companies doing...shutting down refineries and also squeezing the indendent refiners and distributers out of business through buy-outs and mergers. Lack of competition has gotten us to the point and you can lay the blame right at the feet of the government regulators that have allowed this to happen - Democrat and Republican. We have 1/2 the refineries in the U.S. that we had 20 years ago and the Shell Bakersfield refinery will be one less if we let it be shut down.

mtndewdrops
06-22-2004, 06:57 AM
I have an AD in TOW RIGS! Anybody interested??? It only costs $75 to fill up.

roostwear
06-22-2004, 07:11 AM
As unpopular and "socialist" as this sounds, we need to regulate the petroleum industry. The economy is so dependent upon oil pricing that the free market system doesn't apply anymore. If everyone bought a hybrid tomorrow, the prices would actually SKYROCKET. How else would the oil companies maintain the same profit with less sales? Besides, now that they have managed to get prices to this level, do you really think the prices will drop back as they have historically? Even Winter cheap gas is a thing of the past. RIP......

MagicMtnDan
06-22-2004, 07:17 AM
Wonder why gas prices are so high? Here's one simple answer:
Exxon and Mobil used to be competitors - now they're the same company.
Texaco and Shell used to be competitors - now they're the same company.
Thank the government for allowing that to happen. Who was in charge then?!
What do you think would happen to food prices if the grocery chains merged?
What would happen to building materials and supplies if Home Depot and Lowes merged?
How about Costco and Sam's Club?
It's just a matter of time before this happens. Then we're all screwed just that much more.
Let me offer my thanks in advance to the government for taking such good care of us er I mean themselves.

Blown 472
06-22-2004, 07:34 AM
Originally posted by MagicMtnDan
Wonder why gas prices are so high? Here's one simple answer:
Exxon and Mobil used to be competitors - now they're the same company.
Texaco and Shell used to be competitors - now they're the same company.
Thank the government for allowing that to happen. Who was in charge then?!
What do you think would happen to food prices if the grocery chains merged?
What would happen to building materials and supplies if Home Depot and Lowes merged?
How about Costco and Sam's Club?
It's just a matter of time before this happens. Then we're all screwed just that much more.
Let me offer my thanks in advance to the government for taking such good care of us er I mean themselves.
Starting to see the light huh? figuring out the gubment doesn't give a **** about you, me anyone but themselves.
You could always take the stance of 90% of the american people, "Hell I got beer, wwf is on, the gubment is going to take care of me why should I care"

Essex502
06-22-2004, 12:09 PM
Shell Ups Output Forecast
By Elizabeth Douglass, Times Staff Writer
Shell Oil Co. said Monday that it planned to operate its Bakersfield refinery at a "normal summertime" rate through Labor Day, saying that an internal forecast indicating otherwise was revised.
The company, which plans to close the refinery Oct. 1, had said in the forecast that Bakersfield's crude oil processing would be cut 6% in July and another 6% in August.
Those production strategies actually "were preliminary planning scenarios that were subsequently reviewed and revised," said Shell spokesman Stan Mays. "We plan on running as we normally would in July and August."
Mays declined to say when the forecast, distributed to employees within the last four weeks, was modified and wouldn't disclose the amended output figures.
A statement that Shell issued Monday described as "entirely inaccurate" a report that Bakersfield's production would slow down during the height of the summer driving season. A story in The Times on Monday cited Shell documents, including the forecast, to describe output plans for Shell refineries in both Bakersfield and Martinez.
The forecast attributed a cutback in July at Martinez in the Bay Area to maintenance projects. Bakersfield and Martinez are jointly managed as the Bay Valley Complex; a refinery in Wilmington is independent.
In an interview last week, Aamir Farid, general manager of the Bakersfield and Martinez refineries, said the company would operate both plants "as we normally would." He added: "To be honest with you, as the head guy, I have not looked at July in detail…. You're throwing numbers at me that I can't tell you if they're absolutely right or absolutely wrong."
The head guy doesn't know the numbers? SHould he be the head guy if he doesn't?
But when asked about the forecast, including the specific numbers for Martinez, Farid said: "Boy, you must have friends in interesting places."
Does that mean the forecast was accurate?
In the interview, Farid also said that if there were cutbacks planned for Bakersfield, there would be a "good reason" for it, adding: "It probably has to do with crude acquisition."
The plan to close Bakersfield is controversial, with critics charging that shuttering the profitable refinery would reduce supplies of gasoline and diesel and push up retail prices for both fuels. Shell has defended the decision on financial grounds.
Maybe the heat is getting to shell?