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Thread: 42% hit in house values, my guess is that would be bad..

  1. #21
    RiverToysJas
    I think it's time to sell my house, move back in with my parents, and use the money to buy a bunch of new toys! That'd be the smart move right now!!!
    RTJas

  2. #22
    Jeanyus
    If you are waiting for real estate prices to come down, my advice would be don't hold your breath.

  3. #23
    wsuwrhr
    So you guys are saying I am stuck in San Bernardino?
    Thanks for bursting MY bubble.
    Brian

  4. #24
    YeLLowBoaT
    And it will be a long time...
    a looooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnggggggggg time before foreclosures become good deals.
    What, you think a bank is gonna foreclose on a $500K note and turn around sell it for $100K? Yeah, I see that informercial every weekend too!
    How about $200, 300, even $450K...not gonna happen. REO inventories will have to grow to astronimcal numbers before they will even consider letting them go for below note value. Just like the early 90's - it took several years before foreclosures became good deals.
    Its happend b4...
    I know a sub division here in town that had about 75% of some 3500 ish homes defualt...Most of those were vacent for 3+ years. Banks ended up selling them for about 50% of what the notes were. People still were not buying.
    I really don't see the "bubble brusting" I do see a small decline happning( 5-20%) that or go back to the 1-3% year increase.

  5. #25
    MagicMtnDan
    Demand? er...did you see the number for OC?
    What number, the number of housing starts? That doesn't reflect resale conditions or market value. How much open land is available in OC (or LA) county?

  6. #26
    Boa1277
    Look what happened to Temecula back in the late 80s early 90s it took a big crap, now it came back, but alot of people took a big hit. I think the LA, OC housing market is going to take a hit but it will eventually come back just like the stock market, houses are long term investments and if you look at it that way you will be fine, if you purchased your home and planned on using the equity to fund your toys, and vacations, and maybe float a few payments every year just so you could afford the home in the first place you are screwed, sorry to say that but you are screwed that I will guarantee you. The prices in AZ are a joke right now also so when Cali. pops AZ is going to be right behind you... who the hell would believe a 3000 square ft home in Tucson AZ is selling for 600grand in a nice neighborhood, it is a joke, it is Tucson for christs sake, the middle of the f-in desert.... Ah it feels good to vent sometimes for not jumping on the bandwagon and making a grip like everyone else did, but at least I own my home or close enough and the payment is less than 800 bucks a month...

  7. #27
    Ultrafied
    It runs in cycles. Seen it over the last 30 years. Prices increase, prices fall. People need creative financing in the middle of the rise because they can not afford the home in real money. When the bubble gets a hole in it, prices fall. Prices fall farther. The decline lasts between 7-10 years, little ups but usually downs. Early on it was balloon payments, this time it was neg. am's and interest only's. These people usually bust and fuels the market decline. Anywhere from 25% - 45%.
    But .... eventually, the market begins to fuel itself and housing values start to go up. How much? Hasn't been as consistent as falling except for this time. You have to remember that when the housing market exploded, interest rates were being lowered and held down by Greenspan to help Bush's economy after Clinton left. You don't usually see interest rates at 5% or lower. These rates were not market driven but artificial to help the economy, which it did. The price we will pay is yet to be seen.
    Remember .... nothing is forever

  8. #28
    bigq
    What number, the number of housing starts? That doesn't reflect resale conditions or market value. How much open land is available in OC (or LA) county?
    You're right, it reflects housing starts.
    That number is for a month drop.

  9. #29
    cc322
    Never going to happen....
    Drops yes but 42% would be highly unlikely.(I will keep my fingers crossed as I will be ready to buy several investment properties )
    Also where are all of these new start homes in OC/LB?
    I know of less than a handfull of new homes being built in Orange County.(Land is becoming harder nd harder to find here)
    There are so many new tracks going up in Irvine it would blow your mind, new communities galore. I work for the city and I see it everyday tons of new construction. And the funny thing is every house that gets built is allready sold. From Newport coast, to Portola Hills. The Irvine Ranch land is still being developed very heavily

  10. #30
    Cole Trickle
    There are so many new tracks going up in Irvine it would blow your mind, new communities galore. I work for the city and I see it everyday tons of new construction. And the funny thing is every house that gets built is allready sold. From Newport coast, to Portola Hills. The Irvine Ranch land is still being developed very heavily
    That was what I was thinking.
    I have seen the developments over off the toll road and 405 and they are currently cutting hills over at Jeffery/Portola but al of those homes are mega dollar builds.I have had a couple clients get in on the first phase of the homes built off Bryan/Jeffery and they were lucky to pay 800K+ and before they were completed apraised for over a million.
    As far as I know there are very little if any homes being built for the first time homes buyer in OC.
    My area peaked about a year and a half ago but has been holding steady once numbers dropped to realistic numbers.(Portola Hills)

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