Who still thinks the housing market has not popped?

[Freak]

West Coast:
Check out Bressie Ranch in Carlsbad (north San Diego) where average reduction is $60,000.
And check out La Costa Greens right next door, recent price reductions of $100,000 to $150,000.
East Coast:
"Boston-area homeowners trying to sell their houses are sharply reducing asking prices, in some cases, by $100,000 or more, in response to the sudden slowdown in the real estate market. The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts has dropped 7 percent in the past two months, to $349,000 for sales that closed in October."
Oh and oil is $60+ again and natural gas is going nutz $15+

[Outnumbered]

Definitely has not "popped" on the West Coast, but has slowed. I would define popped as what happened between 1991 and 1996 when we had declining values in most market areas of SoCal for several years in a row. The price reductions you are quoting are based on asking prices that were a little too aggressive (based on appreciation rates that are no longer sustainable). They are not declines in value. The days of 25-50% annualized appreciation rates are gone for a while and we will likely see zero to single digit appreciation for the short term and possibly declines over the next 2-5 years unless something changes in the economy. Just my $0.02 based on 15+ years in the RE biz.

[Phat Daddy]

It has slowed down a bit in SoCal. New housing development behind ours( our development is going on a year old) is still sold out. No reduction in prices but it will be interesting to see what the lenders do there.With prices in the high 8's and 9's with rising interest rates should see some people backing out.

[Freak]

The days of 25-50% annualized appreciation rates are gone for a while and we will likely see zero to single digit appreciation for the short term and possibly declines over the next 2-5 years unless something changes in the economy. Just my $0.02 based on 15+ years in the RE biz.
I agree with that.

[Blown Spectra]

I've seen many home for sale in the Glendale/Burbank area that have signs up that say "PRICE REDUCED TO SELL" I dont thinK the prices are drooping on these homes, but the owners are not getting what they want out of them... thats for sure.....
Eric

[totenhosen]

Just had a candid talk with a realtor who is in the top 1% of all realtors nationwide and she said that prices are off 10% from earlier this year already with inventory climbing. We will have to wait until spring I think to get a better sense of what is going on since there could be some seasonal issues.
My feeling based on the amount of fraud and over extended borrowers we will start seeing YOY declines by June.

[Red Horse]

In about 3-5 they will stabilize again and you will see some apprecitation. Sellers in a frenzied market tend to overvalue their wares anyway. They are just coming back to reality. That is all.

[Ziggy]

Those in Interest Only loans are biting nails I'd bet.

[Outnumbered]

Just had a candid talk with a realtor who is in the top 1% of all realtors nationwide and she said that prices are off 10% from earlier this year already with inventory climbing. We will have to wait until spring I think to get a better sense of what is going on since there could be some seasonal issues.
My feeling based on the amount of fraud and over extended borrowers we will start seeing YOY declines by June.
I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.

[Outnumbered]

He is wrong, I found the stat. Its 10% off in VOLUME for the month, not prices:
Home sales set a record — again; prices up almost 15%
By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Existing home sales set another record in the third quarter of 2005, and prices jumped nearly 15%, but even the National Association of Realtors in its report Tuesday said the housing market will probably begin cooling after its five-year boom.
Sales of single-family homes and condos rose to a 7.24-million annual pace in the July-September quarter, up 6.5% from a year earlier. At the same time, 69 of the 147 metropolitan areas studied had double-digit price gains, as the median price of a single-family home climbed 14.7%, year-over-year, to $215,900. That means half the homes that sold nationwide went for more than that, half for less. (Chart: Median prices in 150 metro areas.)
David Lereah, the Realtor's chief economist, predicts the heady gains will cool as interest rates rise.
"We're fairly confident that third-quarter home sales will prove to be the high point of the five-year housing boom," Lereah says.
There are scattered signs that the housing market has already begun to slow. Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now running about 6.3%, compared with 5.89% in the third quarter. The inventory of new and existing homes on the market is rising.
Still, DataQuick Information Services released a report Tuesday showing Southern California's housing market remained strong in October. A total of 28,489 homes were sold during the month — a roughly 10% drop from September, but a 1% gain from a year ago.
"The big question is still whether ... the real estate market will end this cycle with a crash or with a soft landing," says DataQuick President Marshall Prentice, calling the latter outcome more likely.
The NAR said Phoenix had the most robust price gains in the third quarter of 2005: The median home price soared 55.2% to $268,000 from the same period in 2004. In Orlando, home prices rose 44.8% to a median $261,300, while Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., saw a 42.5% price gain to $277,600.
Median prices ranged from $72,800 in Danville, Ill., to $721,900 in San Francisco. Elmira, N.Y., and Decatur, Ill., were also among the least expensive markets, while Anaheim, Calif., Honolulu and San Diego ranked with San Francisco as the priciest.
Six areas had small price drops during the period, though the Realtors said the weakness was concentrated in lower-priced cities with large inventories of unsold homes, a weak job market or both.
The housing market has been a main economic driver, buoying the job market and boosting consumer spending as owners have extracted hundreds of billions in equity. High Frequency Economics says that even a slowdown to more traditional rates of home construction could shave 2 percentage points off annual economic growth, now running at a 3.8% pace.