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Thread: Is The Bubble About To Burst?

  1. #21
    bigriverdog
    looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
    Values are heading down. Its all supply and demand and if you noticed all of the for sale signs, thats over supply. If you plan on owning it a while buy it, but at the right price. If you plan on flipping it, you had better steal it.

  2. #22
    Ziggy
    Ziggy
    We just bought a lot a Havasu Heights. Getting ready to build a shop then a house.
    Steve
    Cool........Price still relatively affordable in the Heights? Couldn't tell by your other post if you closed an escrow or a biz
    Hope it all works out as planned for you !!

  3. #23
    meaniam
    ...not a vacation home by any means cause I would rather slit my wrist then spend one in Texas but we are about to purchase a brand new condo in Pasadena Texas. Of course it'll be for the long haul, but for $80k F it...I have car payments bigger than what the mortgage will be
    Those of you that choose to wait for the California bubble to burst some day, keep on waiting...but at least invest in some form of real estate somewhere!!!!
    i have a friend who just purchase a brand new not even finished yet house in texas. it is 5 bedrooms and like 3200 sq ft for 250k with all the upgrades. she is just outside of san antonio i think. those are some screaming deals out there.
    looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
    everytime someone screams the bubble is going to burst. (since 2001) and always around christmas. ( which is the slow season in real estate) people panic and they always put there houses up for sale. which creates too much inventory. which allows houses to stay on the market longer. creating a temporary flatline then march comes around and things progress and inventory drops. (that has happened the past 5 yrs). there is a few houses that are forclosed. and this may become more evident as the interest goes up. (currently we are at the highest since oct 01,) and greenspan is scheduled to step down at the new year. predictions on the market is the same as gambling in vegas. i heard you can actually bet on this now. good luck. there will eventually be a hiccup in the market. but when it does happen will prices drop as far as they did in 92? but if you do try to wait it out. and the prices keep going, you'll wish you would have bought.
    being on a adjustable rate is playing russian rolette <sp> it dont make no sense to not switch over. while the rates are still reasonable.

  4. #24
    Mandelon
    Upper end has softened a bit. Market times increasing. Priced right homes sell. Over priced homes will sit.
    Burst? No I dont think so. If jobs remain strong and interest rates do not go up dramatically things should be alright. Don't expect much appreciation, not like its been for the past few years anyway.
    Those living beyond their means are going to have some issues for sure. No more refi's to save them.
    As the older generation dies off, there are billions of inheritances out there to keep the economy going.....I think as the baby boomers start to die off, (sorry you guys) there will be a lot of extra housing and capacity. But that's 30 years away. Maybe that's why Bush wants to let all the illegals in?
    I think Havasu is pretty bulletproof. Lot of folks want to retire there. As it goes up too much and becomes untouchable other areas will increase, like BHC, Needles, etc. Folks like to be by the water....

  5. #25
    totenhosen
    I ain't gettin into it with you again....I think we have had this discussion going on for 2 years now and you waiters are still waiting. I choose to hold the opinion that there will be no burst and you choose to hold the opinion that there will be....all that aside, BUY SOMETHING SOMEWHERE NOW!!!!!!!!
    I don't want to get into it with you either. I actually was a R/E bull until about 6 months ago. I own several properties and have sold some of them because I felt I needed to take some cash off the table. I would love to hear why you think the current R/E market is sustainable. And not just what CAR's stance is. For me the warning signs are:
    - rampant fraud in the mortgage industry. People being put into loans that they can't afford once the adjustment comes.
    - Over reliance on exotic loans. Sorry people that are W-2 income earners more than likely shouldn't be doing stated income loans unless they really can't afford it.
    - Massive sell-off of insider shares of home builders. (What do they see that we don't? If the market is going to be great the next year why the sell-off?)
    - Affordability index at historical highs. (There will less people willing to move up the R/E ladder.)
    - Increasing inventory during a so called slow season. In the past three years there really wasn't a slow season as homes still sold quickly.
    - large layoffs already taking place in the mortgage industry. No more overtime work allowed.
    I look at the baby boomer situation differently than Mandeleon. If they start dying off that will leave a glut of inventory. There will be more supply than demand causing downward pressure on pricing.
    Again I don't want to battle anyone. My guess is just as good as yours. I am merely stated my opinion with the reasons why I feel that way. Everyone is going to do what they think is best for themselves. havign said that I think one needs to look at the source of the information. Most of the people who are still bullish on the R/E market have something to gain from it staying that way.

  6. #26
    OutCole'd
    The predictions from the current Forbes is predicting Vegas to get hit the hardest in the next year, :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

  7. #27
    SummitKarl
    You should get ready for the pop since we just closed in LHC. Hang on for the rush of hot air...
    Steve
    by the way I looked (drooled) at your lot yesterday, GOOD JOB!!!! got my wheels spinning, with ideas

  8. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    1,105
    Ziggy
    I think that the prices were out of control but that is because I live in Michigan right now andd no we didn't close our business we just bought the lot.
    Karl
    Take it easy on your ideas as I have to get the shop built first!!!! :rollside:
    Steve

  9. #29
    SummitKarl
    looking at vacations homes.....advice from anyone in the real estate business needed, thanks.
    well look at it this way, even if the market settles a bit, LHC is still on a 30% growth rate, lets say it softens by 1/2......can you get 15% on your money anywhere else?.
    National Association of Realtors, is predicting a BANNER year across the nation AVG. for residential with a trend leaning towards purchasing commercial properties.
    In My case I do see a slow down in VOLUME, but that is a choice of Summit homes, (keep quality vs. volume), although Summit pulled less permits this year than last....it was a even better year than last.
    for my Personal home building and designs, I too have made this same decision, to slow down a bit and concentrate on timely service, too bad it will be at least another 60 days before I can even get close to being caught up,
    re-sales are slowing down a bit, but New homes and Re-models are just as strong if not stronger than this time last year.
    One thing for all of us to keep in mind is that this is traditionally the slow time of year (Oct-Jan) for real estate... it's not a bubble or anything it's just the cycle of the market (very little tax benefit to purchase right now)..sales on all homes will pick right back up in Feb, they always have. so the sky is not falling.. don't panic..it's a very good time to re-fi and get rid of your non-coventional loans ( HINT, HINT )

  10. #30
    SummitKarl
    Ziggy
    I think that the prices were out of control but that is because I live in Michigan right now andd no we didn't close our business we just bought the lot.
    Karl
    Take it easy on your ideas as I have to get the shop built first!!!! :rollside:
    Steve
    GARAGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now that's a good one, you want a flippin Indoor Bus terminal :rollside: or is that a (5k seat) sports arena

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